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Year 2026, Volume: 13 Issue: 1 , 180 - 192 , 19.02.2026

Arif Saldanlı , İbrahim Sırma , Hakan Bektaş , Murat Şeker

https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1761744
https://izlik.org/JA24JF92ST

Abstract

References

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  • Atabek, A., Cosar, E. E., & Sahinöz, S. (2005). A new composite leading indicator of for Turkish economic activity. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 41(1), 45-64. [https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2005.11052597google](https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2005.11052597google) scholar
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  • Stiglitz, J. E., & Weiss, A. (1981). Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information. American Economic Review, 71(3), 393–410. [suspicious link removed] google scholar
  • Stock, J. H., Watson, M. W. (2003). Forecasting output and inflation: The role of asset prices. Journal of Economic Literature, 41(3), 788-829. [https://doi.org/10.1257/002205103322436197](https://doi.org/10.1257/002205103322436197) google scholar
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Financial Institutions Association Economic Outlook Index as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity: A Time Series Analysis for Türkiye

Year 2026, Volume: 13 Issue: 1 , 180 - 192 , 19.02.2026

Arif Saldanlı , İbrahim Sırma , Hakan Bektaş , Murat Şeker

https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1761744
https://izlik.org/JA24JF92ST

Abstract

This study tests whether the Economic Outlook Index (FKB-EGE) published by the Financial Institutions Association (FKB) serves as a leading indicator for real economic activity in Türkiye using time series analysis methods. The FKB-EGE index, which is based on actual transaction data from factoring, financial leasing, and financing companies, differs from survey-based indicators in that it is constructed using data directly linked to real economic activity. In this study, the Industrial Production Index (IPI) published by the Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat) was used as an indicator of real economic activity. The analysis includes a time series of 124 periods covering monthly data from February 2015, when the FKB-EGE was first calculated, to May 2025. The findings obtained from the Granger causality tests and forecasting regression models applied indicate that FKB-EGE, and particularly the Financial Leasing sub-index, provide statistically significant and economically important information in forecasting the future trend of the IPI. The superior performance of the Financial Leasing Index in medium-term (3–6 months) forecasts aligns with theoretical expectations that leasing activities, which reflect investment decisions, serve as an important early warning signal for future production activity. These results suggest that the FKB-EGE could serve as a valuable real-time monitoring tool for policymakers and market analysts.

Keywords

Leading Indicators FKB Economic Outlook Index Industrial Production Index Time Series Analysis Granger Causality

References

  • Acharya, V. V., & Richardson, M. P. (2009). Restoring financial stability: how to repair a failed system. John Wiley & Sons. google scholar
  • Altuğ, S., & Uluceviz E. (2011). Leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Türkiye, 2001-2010. Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Paper Series (No. 1111). google scholar
  • Aramonte, S., Schrimpf, A., & Shin, H. S. (2022). Non-bank financial intermediaries and financial stability. BIS Working Paper No. 972. Bank for International Settlements. google scholar
  • Arslan, Y., Atabek, A., Hülagü, T., & Şahinöz, S. (2015) Expectation errors, uncertainty, and economic activity. (TCMB Working Paper No. 1117). Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye google scholar
  • Atabek, A., Cosar, E. E., & Sahinöz, S. (2005). A new composite leading indicator of for Turkish economic activity. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 41(1), 45-64. [https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2005.11052597google](https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2005.11052597google) scholar
  • Bernanke, B. S. (1983). Nonmonetary effects of the financial crisis in the propagation of the Great Depression. American Economic Review, 73(3), 257–276. [suspicious link removed] google scholar
  • Bernanke, B. S., & Gertler, M. (1989). Agency costs, net worth, and business fluctuations. American Economic Review, 79(1), 14–31. [suspicious link removed] google scholar
  • Bernanke, B. S., Gertler, M., & Gilchrist, S. (1994). The financial accelerator and the flight to quality (NBER Working Paper No. 4789). National Bureau of Economic Research. [https://doi.org/10.3386/w4789google](https://doi.org/10.3386/w4789google) scholar
  • Bernanke, B. S., Gertler, M., & Gilchrist, S. (1999). The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework. In J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (Eds.), Handbook of Macroeconomics (Vol. 1, Part C, pp. 1341–1393). Elsevier. [https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0048(99)10034-X](https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0048\(99\)10034-X) google scholar
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  • Camlica, F., Gunes, D., & Ozen, E. (2017). A financial connectedness analysis for Turkey. (TCMB Working Paper 1719). Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.google scholar
  • Ćorić, B. (2011). The financial accelerator effect: concept and challenges. Financial Theory and Practice, 35(2), 171-196. google scholar
  • Financial Stability Board. (2022). Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation 2022. FSB. [https://www.fsb.org/2022/12/global-monitoring-report-on-non-bank-financial-intermediation-2022/google](https://www.fsb.org/2022/12/global-monitoring-report-on-non-bank-financial-intermediation-2022/google) scholar
  • FKB. (2024). FKB Economic Outlook Index. Financial Institutions Association. [https://www.fkb.org.tr/](https://www.fkb.org.tr/) google scholar
  • Foroni, C., Gelain, P., & Marcellino, M. (2022). The financial accelerator mechanism: Does frequency matter? (ECB Working Paper No. 2637). European Central Bank. [https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2637\~e8ac25af28.en.pdf](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2637~e8ac25af28.en.pdf) google scholar
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  • Gyomai, G., & Wildi, M. (2012). OECD composite leading indicators for G7 countries: A comparison of the Hodrick-Prescott filter and the multivariate direct filter approach (OECD Statistics Working Papers, No. 2012/05). OECD Publishing. [https://doi.org/10.1787/5k4dhnzw8xr](https://doi.org/10.1787/5k4dhnzw8xr) google scholar
  • Holmstrom, B., Tirole, J. (1997). Financial Intermediation, Loanable Funds, and the Real Sector. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(3), 663–691. [https://doi.org/10.1162/003355397555316](https://doi.org/10.1162/003355397555316) google scholar
  • Klapper, L. (2006). The Role of Factoring for Financing Small and Medium Enterprises. Journal of Banking & Finance, 30(11), 3111-3130. [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2006.05.001](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2006.05.001) google scholar
  • Kraemer-Eis, H., & Lang, F. (2012). The importance of leasing for SME finance (No. 2012/15). EIF Working Paper. google scholar
  • Leigh, D., Rossi, M. (2002). Leading indicators of growth and inflation in Türkiye (IMF Working Paper No. 02/231). International Monetary Fund. [https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2002/wp02231.pdf](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2002/wp02231.pdf) google scholar
  • Mitchell, W. C., & Burns, A. F. (1938). Statistical indicators of cyclical revivals (Bulletin 69). National Bureau of Economic Research. [http://www.nber.org/chapters/c4251](http://www.nber.org/chapters/c4251) google scholar
  • Moore, G. H. (Ed.). (1961). Business cycle indicators. Princeton University Press for NBER. google scholar
  • Özbilgin, H. M. (2017). Forecasting the growth cycles of the Turkish economy (TCMB Working Paper No. 17/15). Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye. [https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/d2ffb048-bdb5-4ae0-9e61-1b02dfd1cc97/wp1715.pdf?mod=ajperes](https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/d2ffb048-bdb5-4ae0-9e61-1b02dfd1cc97/wp1715.pdf?mod=ajperes) google scholar
  • Sırma, İ. Ş., Murat, Saldanlı, A., Bektaş, H., Bozoklu, Ş., Şişmanoğlu, E., & Uzun, S. (2025). Financial Institutions Association Economic Outlook Index Bulletin. Financial Institutions Association. google scholar
  • Stiglitz, J. E., & Weiss, A. (1981). Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information. American Economic Review, 71(3), 393–410. [suspicious link removed] google scholar
  • Stock, J. H., Watson, M. W. (2003). Forecasting output and inflation: The role of asset prices. Journal of Economic Literature, 41(3), 788-829. [https://doi.org/10.1257/002205103322436197](https://doi.org/10.1257/002205103322436197) google scholar
  • Zarnowitz, V. (1992). Business cycles: Theory, history, indicators, and forecasting. University of Chicago Press. google scholar
There are 29 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Macroeconomics (Other)
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Arif Saldanlı 0000-0001-9990-9510

İbrahim Sırma 0000-0002-3756-3654

Hakan Bektaş 0000-0002-7856-2674

Murat Şeker 0000-0003-3925-6276

Submission Date August 9, 2025
Acceptance Date November 7, 2025
Publication Date February 19, 2026
DOI https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1761744
IZ https://izlik.org/JA24JF92ST
Published in Issue Year 2026 Volume: 13 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Saldanlı, A., Sırma, İ., Bektaş, H., & Şeker, M. (2026). Financial Institutions Association Economic Outlook Index as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity: A Time Series Analysis for Türkiye. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, 13(1), 180-192. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1761744
AMA 1.Saldanlı A, Sırma İ, Bektaş H, Şeker M. Financial Institutions Association Economic Outlook Index as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity: A Time Series Analysis for Türkiye. JEPR. 2026;13(1):180-192. doi:10.26650/JEPR1761744
Chicago Saldanlı, Arif, İbrahim Sırma, Hakan Bektaş, and Murat Şeker. 2026. “Financial Institutions Association Economic Outlook Index As a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity: A Time Series Analysis for Türkiye”. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi 13 (1): 180-92. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1761744.
EndNote Saldanlı A, Sırma İ, Bektaş H, Şeker M (February 1, 2026) Financial Institutions Association Economic Outlook Index as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity: A Time Series Analysis for Türkiye. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi 13 1 180–192.
IEEE [1]A. Saldanlı, İ. Sırma, H. Bektaş, and M. Şeker, “Financial Institutions Association Economic Outlook Index as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity: A Time Series Analysis for Türkiye”, JEPR, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 180–192, Feb. 2026, doi: 10.26650/JEPR1761744.
ISNAD Saldanlı, Arif - Sırma, İbrahim - Bektaş, Hakan - Şeker, Murat. “Financial Institutions Association Economic Outlook Index As a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity: A Time Series Analysis for Türkiye”. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi 13/1 (February 1, 2026): 180-192. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1761744.
JAMA 1.Saldanlı A, Sırma İ, Bektaş H, Şeker M. Financial Institutions Association Economic Outlook Index as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity: A Time Series Analysis for Türkiye. JEPR. 2026;13:180–192.
MLA Saldanlı, Arif, et al. “Financial Institutions Association Economic Outlook Index As a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity: A Time Series Analysis for Türkiye”. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, vol. 13, no. 1, Feb. 2026, pp. 180-92, doi:10.26650/JEPR1761744.
Vancouver 1.Arif Saldanlı, İbrahim Sırma, Hakan Bektaş, Murat Şeker. Financial Institutions Association Economic Outlook Index as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity: A Time Series Analysis for Türkiye. JEPR. 2026 Feb. 1;13(1):180-92. doi:10.26650/JEPR1761744