Financial Institutions Association Economic Outlook Index as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity: A Time Series Analysis for Türkiye

Öz

This study tests whether the Economic Outlook Index (FKB-EGE) published by the Financial Institutions Association (FKB) serves as a leading indicator for real economic activity in Türkiye using time series analysis methods. The FKB-EGE index, which is based on actual transaction data from factoring, financial leasing, and financing companies, differs from survey-based indicators in that it is constructed using data directly linked to real economic activity. In this study, the Industrial Production Index (IPI) published by the Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat) was used as an indicator of real economic activity. The analysis includes a time series of 124 periods covering monthly data from February 2015, when the FKB-EGE was first calculated, to May 2025. The findings obtained from the Granger causality tests and forecasting regression models applied indicate that FKB-EGE, and particularly the Financial Leasing sub-index, provide statistically significant and economically important information in forecasting the future trend of the IPI. The superior performance of the Financial Leasing Index in medium-term (3–6 months) forecasts aligns with theoretical expectations that leasing activities, which reflect investment decisions, serve as an important early warning signal for future production activity. These results suggest that the FKB-EGE could serve as a valuable real-time monitoring tool for policymakers and market analysts.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Leading Indicators
• FKB Economic Outlook Index
• Industrial Production Index
• Time Series Analysis
• Granger Causality

Kaynakça

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