THE MODELLING RECORDED FAULTS IN RAILWAYS AND PREDICTION

Year 2017, Volume: 17 Issue: 2, 3417 - 3423, 27.07.2017

Süleyman Karaman İlhan Kocaarslan , Hasan Tiryaki , Emrah Bal

Abstract

This paper describes the
prediction of the accidents and incidents by modelling the faults that are hard
to be predicted, and forms the stochastic processes in railways. As it is seen,
the root causes of the occurrence of the accidents and incidents in railways
are the technical faults, the organizational faults, the staff faults, the
third-party faults, the other faults and some parameters affecting these faults
holidays, seasonal effects etc. The system model was set up by considering the
above-mentioned faults and the causes as the inputs of the model and the
accidents and the incidents as the outputs of the model. The real values of the
accidents and the incidents were compared with the predicted values by using
Artificial Neural Networks-ANN and Support Vector Machines-SVM. The results,
which were acquired by this article, are considered as a guide because of the
absence of any studies about the prediction of the accidents caused by the
faults.

Keywords

Railways, Faults, Accidents and Incidents, Artificial Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines

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