Interaction between commodity prices and freight rates: Content analysis of the dry bulk market reports

Abstract

Most of the commodities used as raw materials for final products in the world economy are transported by sea by dry bulk cargo ships. Due to the derived demand structure, the demand for commodities directly affects the demand for shipping. One of the biggest indicators of the demand for commodities is their prices. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the relationship between commodity price and freight rate, which has been examined and verified by many studies in the empirical literature, is interpreted in the maritime industry. In this direction, the industry reports published by Fearnleys, one of the leading institutions of the maritime industry, are analyzed using interpretive content analysis method. Investigated market reports cover the period 23 February 2005 to 13 November 2019 and consist of a 752-week market summary report. The sections related to the dry bulk market and summarizing the Capesize, Panamax and Handymax markets are examined in the reports. According to the results, the relationship between the commodity price and freight rates in the sector reports is interpreted with the assumption that the commodity price reflects the demand for itself. In addition, the cargo shift between ship types arises according to the freight levels. Therefore, information and volatilities from commodity prices affect not only the freight of the specialized ship, but also the other freight markets.

Keywords

• Commodity Price
• Dry Bulk Market
• Sector Reports
• Content Analysis

Emtia fiyatları ve navlun oranları arasındaki etkileşim: Kuru dökme yük piyasası raporlarının içerik analizi

Öz

Dünya ekonomisinde nihai ürünler için ham madde olarak kullanılan emtiaların büyük bir çoğunluğu deniz yoluyla kuru dökme yük gemileriyle taşınmaktadır. Türetilmiş talep yapısı nedeniyle, emtialara olan talep denizciliğe olan talebi doğrudan etkilemektedir. Emtialara olan talebin en büyük göstergelerinden biri ise fiyatlarıdır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, ampirik literatürde birçok çalışma tarafından incelenen ve doğrulanan emtia fiyatı ve navlun oranı arasındaki ilişkinin denizcilik sektöründe nasıl yorumlandığını araştırmaktır. Bu doğrultuda denizcilik sektörünün önde gelen kurumlarından Fearnleys tarafından yayımlanan sektör raporları yorumlayıcı içerik analizi yöntemiyle incelenmiştir. İncelenen piyasa raporları 23 Şubat 2005 ve 13 Kasım 2019 tarihleri arasını kapsamaktadır ve haftalık bazda 752 piyasa özeti raporundan oluşmaktadır. Raporlarda kuru dökme yük piyasası ile ilgili olan ve Capesize, Panamax ve Handymax piyasalarını özetleyen bölümler incelenmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, sektör raporlarında emtia fiyatı ve navlun oranları arasındaki ilişki emtia fiyatının kendine olan talebi yansıtması varsayımıyla yorumlanmaktadır. Ayrıca gemi tipleri arasındaki yük geçişkenliği navlun seviyelerine göre ortaya çıkmaktadır. Bu yüzden emtia fiyatlarından gelen bilgiler ve oynaklıklar sadece uzmanlaşan geminin navlunlarını değil, diğer piyasa navlunlarını da etkilemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Emtia Fiyatı
• Kuru Dökme Yük Piyasası
• Sektör Raporları
• İçerik Analizi

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