Sivil Havacılık Kazalarında Sistem Düzeyli Risk Örüntüleri: 2006–2026 Dönemi Küresel Açık Erişim Verilerinin Literatürle Karşılaştırmalı Analizi

Abstract

Sivil havacılık kazaları, neden–sonuç ilişkilerinin çok boyutlu ve etkileşim temelli yapısı nedeniyle akademik literatürde önemini korumaktadır. Bu çalışma, 2006–2026 yılları arasında meydana gelen sivil havacılık kazaları ve ciddi olayların dağılımını, geniş ölçekli ve açık erişimli küresel kaza verileri kullanarak incelemektedir. Analiz kapsamında kazaların zamansal eğilimleri, olay türleri, temel neden kategorileri ve hava aracı tiplerine göre dağılımları değerlendirilmiştir. Ayrıca havacılık emniyeti alanındaki çalışmalar sistematik biçimde gözden geçirilmiş, literatürde öne çıkan risk alanları ve kuramsal yaklaşımlar belirlenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, akademik çalışmalarda tanımlanan risk örüntüleri ile karşılaştırılmıştır. Sonuçlar, uzun vadede kaza sayılarında dalgalanmalar gözlenmekle birlikte genel olarak azalma eğilimi bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Pistten çıkma olayları, uçuş sırasında kontrol kaybı ve çevresel faktörler başlıca neden kategorileri olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Bulgular, kazaların tekil hatalardan ziyade operasyonel, teknik ve çevresel unsurların birbiriyle bağlantılı etkisi sonucu ortaya çıktığını göstermektedir. Literatürde tanımlanan risk çerçeveleri ile gerçek kaza verileri arasındaki karşılaştırma, kavramsal modeller ile ampirik bulgular arasında yüksek düzeyde uyum bulunduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Kuramsal risk yaklaşımlarının uzun dönemli küresel kaza verileriyle birlikte değerlendirilmesi, havacılık emniyetinin sistem düzeyinde ele alınmasının önemini vurgulamaktadır.

Keywords

• Sivil havacılık kazaları
• havacılık emniyeti
• kaza analizi
• sistematik literatür incelemesi
• açık erişimli veriler

System-Level Risk Patterns in Civil Aviation Accidents: A Comparative Analysis of Literature and Global Open-Access Data (2006–2026)

Abstract

Civil aviation accidents maintain their importance in academic literature due to the multifaceted and interaction-based nature of cause-and-effect relationships. This study examines the distribution of civil aviation accidents and serious incidents between 2006 and 2026 using large-scale, open-access global accident data. The analysis evaluates the temporal trends of accidents, incident types, primary cause categories, and distribution by aircraft type. Furthermore, studies in the field of aviation safety are systematically reviewed, and prominent risk areas and theoretical approaches in the literature are identified. The empirical findings are compared with risk patterns defined in academic studies. The analysis results show that while fluctuations in accident numbers are observed in the long term, there is a general downward trend. Runway excursions, loss-of-control incidents, and environmental factors stand out as the main cause categories. The findings reveal that accidents result from a combination of interconnected operational, technical, and environmental factors rather than individual errors. A comparison of risk frameworks defined in the literature with actual accident data shows a high level of agreement between conceptual models and empirical findings. By considering theoretical risk approaches together with long-term global accident data, this study emphasizes the importance of system-level assessment of aviation safety.

Keywords

• Civil aviation accidents
• aviation safety
• accident analysis
• systematic review
• open-access data

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