TÜRKİYE TURİZM YATIRIMLARININ BULANIK ÇOK AMAÇLI DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ

Abstract

Son yıllarda turizm, ülkeler için önemli iş alanlarından biri olmuştur. Özellikle 1980'lerden sonra turizmin bireysel kazançtan aldığı pay gün geçtikçe artmıştır. Bu nedenle bu sektöre yapılacak yatırımların yapılabilir ve mantıklı olması gerekmektedir. Ancak literatürde, hangi turizm türleri veya hangi yatırım sorularının sayısal olarak tartışılması ve hesaplanması gerektiği ile ilgili neredeyse hiç mühendislik çalışması yoktur. Bu çalışmada sayısal örnek için, ilk olarak mühendislik açısından bulanık ANP ile Türkiye'de yatırım yapmayı planladığımız turizm türüne karar verdik. Daha sonra bu turizm türü için Türkiye'den üç gerçek yatırım projesi bulunmuş ve bulanık ANP kullanılarak önceliklendirilmiştir. Bu projelere ait bu ağırlıkları ve finansal verileri kullanarak, bu üç yatırım arasında en uygun yatırımı görmek için bulanık çok amaçlı karar verme uygulanmıştır. Bu uygulama sadece Türkiye’ye değil, aynı karar verme teknikleri kullanılarak farklı ülkelere de uygulanabilmektedir. Bu makale, turizm literatürüne mühendislik bakış açısı getirmekte ve yatırımcılara yapılabilir yatırımlar konusunda yardımcı olmaktadır. Yazarların bilgisine göre bu çalışma, turizm yatırımlarını mühendislik bakış açısı ile sayısal olarak ele alan ilk çalışma olacaktır.

Keywords

• Turizm
• Yatırım
• Karar verme
• Fuzzy ANP
• Çok Amaçlı Lineer Programlama

FUZZY MULTI-OBJECTIVE EVALUATION OF TOURISM INVESTMENTS IN TURKEY

Abstract

In recent years, tourism has been one of the major business areas for countries. Especially after the 1980's the share of tourism from individual earnings has increased day by day. For this reason, investments in this sector have to be feasible and logical. But in the literature, there are nearly no issues of engineers—which types of tourism or which investment questions must be discussed and calculated numerically. For the numerical example in this study, firstly, we decided the tourism type planned to invest in Turkey with fuzzy ANP from an engineering point of view. Then, three real investment projects from Turkey were found for this tourism type and prioritized using fuzzy ANP. Using these weights and financial data belonging to these projects, we apply fuzzy multi-objective decision-making to see the most feasible investment among these three investments. This application is not only for Turkey but can also be applied to different countries using the same decision-making techniques. This paper brings an engineering point of view to the tourism literature and helps investors with feasible investments. To the authors' knowledge, this will be the first study that deals with tourism investments numerically.

Keywords

• tourism
• investment
• decision making
• fuzzy Analytic Network Process
• fuzzy Multi-Objective Linear Programming

References

1. Al Gergawi, M. (2003). The Dubai Development and Investment Authority (DDIA) Chairman, http://www.ameinfo.com/30467.html.
2. Ayag, Z. and Ozdemir, R.G. (2007). An intelligent approach to ERP software selection through fuzzy ANP. International Journal of Production Research, 45(10), 2169–2194.
3. Chang, D.Y. (1996). Applications of the extent analysis method on fuzzy AHP. European Journal of Operational Research, 95, 649–655.
4. Bellman, R.E. and Zadeh, L.A. (1970). Decision-making in a fuzzy environment. Management Science, 17, 141–164.
5. Brohman J. (1996). New directions in tourism for third world development. Annals of Tourism Research, 23, 48-70.
6. Buntaine, M. T., Mullen, R. B. and Lassoie, J. P. (2006). Human Use and Conservation Planning in Alpine Areas of Northwestern Yunnan. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 9, 305–24.
7. Climaco, J. (1997). Multicriteria analysis, New York: Springer-Verlag.
8. Demirel, T., Cetin Demirel, N. and Ozdemir, Y. (2009). Prioritization of Tourism Types Using Fuzzy Analytic Network Process. The 4th International Conference on Intelligent Systems & Knowledge Engineering, Hasselt, Belgium.

9. Dyson, R.G. (1980). Maximing Programming, Fuzzy Linear Programming and Multi-Criteria Decision Making. Journal of Operational Research Society, 31, 264.
10. Ertay, T., Büyüközkan, G., Kahraman, C. and Ruan, D. (2005). Quality function deployment implementation based on Analytic Network Process with linguistic data: An application in automotive industry. Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems, 16, 221–232.
11. Forman, E. (1999). Decision By Objectives, Expert Choice Inc., available at: http://www.technology.sbpm.gwu.edu/forman/
12. Gal, T. and Hanne, T. (1999). Multicriteria decision making: Advances in MCDM models, algorithms, theory, and applications, New York: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
13. Galani-Moutafi, V. (2004). Tourism research on Greece: a critical overview. Annals of Tourism Research, 31(1), 157–179.
14. Gurung C.P. and DeCoursey M.A. (2000). Too much too fast: lessons from Nepal's Lost Kingdom of Mustang. In: Godde PM, Price MF, Zimmermann FM, (ed.), Tourism and development in mountain regions, Wallingford: CABI Publishing, pp. 239–54.
15. Hannan, E.L. (1981). Linear programming with multiple fuzzy goals. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 6, 235–248.
16. Holden, A. (2000). Environment and tourism, London and New York: Routledge.
17. Hunter C. (1997). Sustainable tourism as an adaptive paradigm. Annals of Tourism Research, 24, 850–867.
18. Kort, P.M., Greiner A., Feichtinger, G., Haunschmied, J.L., Novak, A. and Hartl, R.F. (2002). Environmental effects of tourism industry investments: an inter-temporal trade-off. Optimal Control Applications and Methods, 23, 1–19.
19. Leberling, H. (1981). On finding compromise solutions in multi-criteria problems using the fuzzy min-operator. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 6, 105–118.
20. Lim, C. (1997). Review of International Tourism Demand Models. Annals of Tourism Research, 24(4), 835-849.
21. Lin, C.T. and Lee, C.S.G. (1996). Neural Fuzzy Systems: A Neuro-Fuzzy Synergism to Intelligent Systems, New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
22. Luhandjula, M.K. (1982). Compensatory operators in fuzzy programming with multiple Objectives. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 8, 245–252.
23. McKercher, B. (1993). Some Fundamental Truths About Tourism: Understanding Tourism's Social and Environmental Impacts. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 1(1), 6–16.
24. Mikhailov, L. (2003). Deriving priorities from fuzzy pairwise comparison judgments. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 134, 365-385.
25. Mikhailov, L. and Singh, M.G. (2003). Fuzzy analytic network process and its application to the development of decision support systems. IEEE Transaction on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics-Part C: Applications and Reviews, 33(1), 33-41.
26. Moghaddam, R.T., Javadi, B., Jolai, F. and Ghodratnama, A. (2010). The use of a fuzzy multi-objective linear programming for solving a multi-objective single-machine scheduling problem. Applied Soft Computing, 10(3), 919-925.
27. Mohanty, R.P., Agarwal, R., Choudhury, A.K. and Tiwari, M.K. (2005). A Fuzzy ANP–based approach to R&D project selection: A case study. International Journal of Production Research, 43(24), 5199–5216.
28. Nepal, S.K. (2000). Tourism in Protected Areas. Annals of Tourism Research, 27, 661–681.
29. Pohekar, S.D. and Ramachandran,M. (2004). Application of multi-criteria decision making to sustainable energy planning—A review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 8, 365–381.
30. Promentilla, M.A.B., Furuichi, T., Ishii, K. and Tanikawa, N. (2006). Evaluation of remedial countermeasures using the analytic network process. Waste Management, 26, 1410-1421.
31. Promentilla, M.A.B., Furuichi, T., Ishii, K. and Tanikawa, N. (2007). A fuzzy analytic network process for multi-criteria evaluation of contaminated site remedial countermeasures. Journal of Environmental Management, 88(3), 479-495.
32. Ridder, K., Almeida-Rivera, C., Bongers, P., Bruin, S. and Flapper, S.D. (2008). Multi-Criteria Decision Making in Product-driven Process Synthesis, 18th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering.
33. Sakawa, M. (1988). An interactive fuzzy satisfying method for multi-objective linear fractional programming problems. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 28, 129–144.
34. Singh, S. (2002). Tourism in India: Policy Pitfalls. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 7, 45–59.
35. Stevens, S. (2003). Tourism and Deforestation in the Mt Everest Region of Nepal. The Geographical Journal, 169(3), 255–277.
36. Theuns, H.L. (2002). Tourism and development: Economic dimensions. Tourism Recreation Research, 27(1), 69–81.
37. Tourism Investment in Saudi Arabia, (2009). Saudi Commission for Tourism & Antiquity.
38. WTO (World Tourism Organization), (2005). Tourism's potential as a sustainable development Strategy, Madrid: World Tourism Organization.
39. Yellepeddi, S. (2006). An Analytical Network Process (ANP) approach for the development of a reverse supply chain performance index in consumer electronics industry. Ph.D. Thesis, The University of Texas, Arlington, USA.
40. Zimmermann, H.J. (1976). Description and optimization of fuzzy systems. International Journal of General Systems, 2, 209–215.
41. Zimmermann, H.J. (1983). Fuzzy Mathematical Programming. Computers and Operations Research, 10(4), 292.
42. www.kultur.gov.tr, The official web site of Republic of Turkey Ministry of Culture and Tourism.