Business as Usual? The Present and Future Impact of Brexit on Anglo-Turkish Relations
Year 2021,
Volume: 2 Issue: 2, 25 - 49, 20.06.2021
Görkem Altınörs
,
Yaprak Gürsoy
Abstract
This study aims to analyse how Brexit has affected Anglo-Turkish relations. It evaluates elements of continuity and possibilities of change in bilateral relations. In the first two sections, the article offers background information on the Brexit referendum and the history of Anglo-Turkish relations. It then discusses the potential risks and opportunities for foreign policies of both countries with regards to their relations with each other. In the final section, it analyses the significance of Anglo-Turkish commercial ties and areas of further economic cooperation. The article concludes that despite the obstacles that were posed by Brexit, Anglo-Turkish relations have continued as usual. There is potential for the deepening of relations in the economy, trade and security. However, the future of bilateral relations will also depend on the willingness of both sides to engage with each other and Europe while also developing realistic expectations from one another in an era of global uncertainty.
References
- Aksoy, Sevilay Z., “The prospect of Turkey’s EU membership as represented in the British newspapers The Times and The Guardian, 2002–2005”, Journal of European Studies 39, no. 4 (2009): 469-506.
- Altınörs, Görkem, “Devamlılık mı Kırılma mı? Brexit Sonrası Dönemde Birleşik Krallık-Türkiye İlişkilerinin Karşılaştırmalı Dış Politika Analizi,” Pamukkale University Journal of Social Sciences Institute 40 (2020).
- Arık, Burcu, “Erdogan: Turkey may have Brexit-like referendum on EU,” Anadolu Agency, 26 March 2017, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/archive/erdogan-turkey-may-have-brexit-like-referendum-on-eu/3085, accessed 15 May 2021.
- Aydın-Düzgit, Senem and Alessandro Marrone, “PESCO and Security Cooperation Between the EU and Turkey”, Global Turkey in Europe Working Paper 19, September 2018, http://research.sabanciuniv.edu/38203/1/PESCO_and_Security_Cooperation.pdf, accessed 14 May 2021.
- Balım, Çiğdem, “Perspectives on Anglo-Turkish Diplomatic Relations: An interview with His Excellency Mr. Ümit Yalçın, the Ambassador of the Republic of Turkey to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland,” Journal of Anglo-Turkish Relations 1, no. 2, June 2020, pp. 87-91.
- Barlas, Dilek and Şuhnaz Yilmaz, “Managing the Transition from Pax Britannica to Pax Americana: Turkey’s Relations with Britain and the US in a Turbulent Era (1929–47),” Turkish Studies 17, no. 3, 2016, pp. 449–73.
- Başbakanlık Basın Merkezi, “Başbakan Yıldırım’ın The Guardian’a verdiği mülakat,” 27.07.2016, http://www.bbm.gov.tr/Forms/pgNewsDetail.aspx?Type=5&Id=18179, accessed 23 May 2017.
- BBC, “Cameron 'anger' at slow pace of Turkish EU negotiations,” 27 July 2010, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-10767768, accessed 13 May 2021.
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- Bloomberg HT, “Erdoğan: İngiltere ile serbest ticaret anlaşması imzalıyoruz,” 28 Dec 2020, https://www.bloomberght.com/erdogan-yarin-ingiltere-ile-serbest-ticaret-anlasmasi-imzaliyoruz-2271567, accessed 16 May 2021.
- Bloomberg HT, “Erdoğan: İngiltere ile serbest ticaret anlaşması imzalıyoruz,” 28 Dec 2020, https://www.bloomberght.com/erdogan-yarin-ingiltere-ile-serbest-ticaret-anlasmasi-imzaliyoruz-2271567, accessed 16 May 2021.
- Demirtaş, Serkan, “Trade deal to boost Turkey-UK strategic partnership: British envoy”, Hürriyet Daily News, 11 Jan 2021, https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/trade-deal-to-boost-turkey-uk-strategic-partnership-british-envoy-161524, accessed 13 May 2021.
- Dokos, Thanos, Nathalie Tocci, Anja Palm and Can Kasapoğlu, “Greek-Turkish Relations and the Cyprus dispute: impact on Turkey-EU scenarios,” FEUTURE Online Paper, December 2018, https://feuture.uni-koeln.de/sites/feuture/user_upload/Online_Paper_No_27.pdf accessed 15 May 2021.
- Duvar English, “Germany’s CDU leadership hopeful suggests UK model for Turkey-EU partnership,” 4 January 2021, https://www.duvarenglish.com/germanys-cdu-leadership-hopeful-friedrich-merz-suggests-uk-model-for-turkey-eu-partnership-news-55733 accessed 15 May 2021.
- Edgington, Tom and Chris Morris, “Brexit: What is the Northern Ireland Protocol and why are there checks?”, BBC News, 15 March 2021, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-53724381 accessed 15 May 2021.
- Euractiv, “Miliband: Turning Turkey away from EU ‘unconscionable’,” 27 Oct 2009, https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/miliband-turning-turkey-away-from-eu-unconscionable/, accessed 12 May 2021.
- Euronews, “Ankara Anlaşması'na başvuruda yüzde 6 bin artış,” 27 January 2021, https://tr.euronews.com/2018/03/23/turkiye-den-ankara-anlasmas-na-basvuruda-yuzde-6-bin-art-s, accessed 13 May 2021.
- Evans, Geoffrey and Jonathan Mellon, “Immigration, Euroscepticism, and the rise and fall of UKIP,” Party Politics 25, no. 1, 2019, pp. 76-87.
Freeden, Michael, “After the Brexit referendum: revisiting populism as an ideology,” Journal of Political Ideologies 22, no. 1, 2017, pp. 1-11.
- Glencross, Andrew, Why the UK Voted for Brexit: David Cameron's Great Miscalculation, London: Palgrave Pivot, 2016.
- Göktepe, Cihat, “The ‘forgotten Alliance’? Anglo‐Turkish Relations and CENTO, 1959–65,” Middle Eastern Studies 35, no. 4, 2006, pp. 103–29.
- Gov.uk, “Explanatory memorandum: UK/Turkey: Free Trade Agreement,” International Treaty UK/Turkey: Free Trade Agreement [CS Turkey no.1/2021] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ukturkey-free-trade-agreement-cs-turkey-no12021 accessed 14 May 2021.
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- Gürsoy, Yaprak and Ilke Toygür, “Turkey in and out of NATO? An instance of a turbulent alliance with Western institutions,” Analyses of the Elcano Royal Institute (ARI), 11 June 2018, http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/contenido?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/zonas_in/ARI73-2018-Gursoy-Toygur-Turkey-in-out-NATO-turbulent-alliance-Western-institutions accessed 13 May 2021.
- Gürsoy, Yaprak, “Reconsidering Britain’s Soft Power: Lessons from the Perceptions of the Turkish Political Elite,” Cambridge Review of International Affairs, Online First, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1080/09557571.2020.1832959.
- Gürsoy, Yaprak, Brexit: Türkiye-Birleşik Krallık-AB İlişkilerinde Siyasi ve Ekonomik Riskler ve Fırsatlar, İstanbul, DEİK, 2019.
- Hayward, Katy, “The pivotal position of the Irish border in the UK's withdrawal from the European Union”, Space and Polity 22, no. 2, 2018, pp. 238-254.
- HM Government, “Global Britain in a Competitive Age: The Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy,” March 2021, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/975077/Global_Britain_in_a_Competitive_Age-_the_Integrated_Review_of_Security__Defence__Development_and_Foreign_Policy.pdf accessed 13 May 2021.
- HM Government, “National Security Capability Review,” March 2018, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/705347/6.4391_CO_National-Security-Review_web.pdf accessed 13 May 2021.
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- Isaac, Anna, “10 Key Details in the UK-EU Trade Deal”, Politico, 27 December 2020, https://www.politico.eu/article/10-key-details-uk-eu-brexit-trade-deal/ accessed 13 May 2021.
- İTO, Birleşik Krallık Ülke Etüdü, 2011, İTO, İstanbul.
- Jennings, Will and Martin Lodge, “Brexit, the tides and Canute: the fracturing politics of the British state,” Journal of European Public Policy 26, no. 5, 2019, pp. 772-789.
- Kenealy, Daniel, “How Did We Get Here? A Brief History of Britain’s Membership of the EU,” European Futures, 24 May 2016, https://www.europeanfutures.ed.ac.uk/how-did-we-get-here-a-brief-history-of-britains-membership-of-the-eu/.
- Ker-Lindsay, James, “A Difficult Transition to a New Relationship: Britain and Cyprus in the European Union”, Journal of Contemporary European Studies 15, no. 2, 2007, pp. 185-200.
- Kirişçi, Kemal, “Order from Chaos”, Brookings, 17 March 2021, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/03/17/as-eu-turkey-migration-agreement-reaches-the-five-year-mark-add-a-job-creation-element/ accessed 12 May 2021.
- Köymen, Oya B., “Anglo-Turkish Relations: 1919-1922,” The Turkish Yearbook 8, 1967, pp. 14-28 (p. 27-8).
- Londra Büyükelçiliği, “Ambassador's Statement at 'Turkey-UK Science and Innovation Platform’”, 21.11,2016, http://londra.be.mfa.gov.tr/ShowSpeech.aspx?ID=12070, accessed 23 May 2017.
- Londra Büyükelçiliği, “Ambassador’s Statement at the opening of BEKO’s Research and Development Centre”, 14.12.2016, http://londra.be.mfa.gov.tr/ShowSpeech.aspx?ID=12077, accessed 23 May 2017.
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Business as Usual? The Present and Future Impact of Brexit on Anglo-Turkish Relations
Year 2021,
Volume: 2 Issue: 2, 25 - 49, 20.06.2021
Görkem Altınörs
,
Yaprak Gürsoy
Abstract
This study aims to analyse how Brexit has affected Anglo-Turkish relations. It evaluates elements of continuity and possibilities of change in bilateral relations. In the first two sections, the article offers background information on the Brexit referendum and the history of Anglo-Turkish relations. It then discusses the potential risks and opportunities for foreign policies of both countries with regards to their relations with each other. In the final section, it analyses the significance of Anglo-Turkish commercial ties and areas of further economic cooperation. The article concludes that despite the obstacles that were posed by Brexit, Anglo-Turkish relations have continued as usual. There is potential for the deepening of relations in the economy, trade and security. However, the future of bilateral relations will also depend on the willingness of both sides to engage with each other and Europe while also developing realistic expectations from one another in an era of global uncertainty.
References
- Aksoy, Sevilay Z., “The prospect of Turkey’s EU membership as represented in the British newspapers The Times and The Guardian, 2002–2005”, Journal of European Studies 39, no. 4 (2009): 469-506.
- Altınörs, Görkem, “Devamlılık mı Kırılma mı? Brexit Sonrası Dönemde Birleşik Krallık-Türkiye İlişkilerinin Karşılaştırmalı Dış Politika Analizi,” Pamukkale University Journal of Social Sciences Institute 40 (2020).
- Arık, Burcu, “Erdogan: Turkey may have Brexit-like referendum on EU,” Anadolu Agency, 26 March 2017, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/archive/erdogan-turkey-may-have-brexit-like-referendum-on-eu/3085, accessed 15 May 2021.
- Aydın-Düzgit, Senem and Alessandro Marrone, “PESCO and Security Cooperation Between the EU and Turkey”, Global Turkey in Europe Working Paper 19, September 2018, http://research.sabanciuniv.edu/38203/1/PESCO_and_Security_Cooperation.pdf, accessed 14 May 2021.
- Balım, Çiğdem, “Perspectives on Anglo-Turkish Diplomatic Relations: An interview with His Excellency Mr. Ümit Yalçın, the Ambassador of the Republic of Turkey to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland,” Journal of Anglo-Turkish Relations 1, no. 2, June 2020, pp. 87-91.
- Barlas, Dilek and Şuhnaz Yilmaz, “Managing the Transition from Pax Britannica to Pax Americana: Turkey’s Relations with Britain and the US in a Turbulent Era (1929–47),” Turkish Studies 17, no. 3, 2016, pp. 449–73.
- Başbakanlık Basın Merkezi, “Başbakan Yıldırım’ın The Guardian’a verdiği mülakat,” 27.07.2016, http://www.bbm.gov.tr/Forms/pgNewsDetail.aspx?Type=5&Id=18179, accessed 23 May 2017.
- BBC, “Cameron 'anger' at slow pace of Turkish EU negotiations,” 27 July 2010, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-10767768, accessed 13 May 2021.
- BBC, “İngiltere ve Türkiye arasında 125 milyon dolarlık savunma anlaşması,” 28 Feb 2017, http://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler-turkiye-38772811, accessed 22 June 2017.
- BCCT, “About Us,” https://www.bcct.org.tr/about-us/the-british-chamber-of-commerce-in-turkey, accessed 12 May 2021.
- BCCT, “UK and Turkey Sign Trade Deal,” 2021, https://www.bcct.org.tr/news/uk-and-turkey-sign-trade-deal/70799, accessed 13 May 2021.
- Bloomberg HT, “Erdoğan: İngiltere ile serbest ticaret anlaşması imzalıyoruz,” 28 Dec 2020, https://www.bloomberght.com/erdogan-yarin-ingiltere-ile-serbest-ticaret-anlasmasi-imzaliyoruz-2271567, accessed 16 May 2021.
- Bloomberg HT, “Erdoğan: İngiltere ile serbest ticaret anlaşması imzalıyoruz,” 28 Dec 2020, https://www.bloomberght.com/erdogan-yarin-ingiltere-ile-serbest-ticaret-anlasmasi-imzaliyoruz-2271567, accessed 16 May 2021.
- Demirtaş, Serkan, “Trade deal to boost Turkey-UK strategic partnership: British envoy”, Hürriyet Daily News, 11 Jan 2021, https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/trade-deal-to-boost-turkey-uk-strategic-partnership-british-envoy-161524, accessed 13 May 2021.
- Dokos, Thanos, Nathalie Tocci, Anja Palm and Can Kasapoğlu, “Greek-Turkish Relations and the Cyprus dispute: impact on Turkey-EU scenarios,” FEUTURE Online Paper, December 2018, https://feuture.uni-koeln.de/sites/feuture/user_upload/Online_Paper_No_27.pdf accessed 15 May 2021.
- Duvar English, “Germany’s CDU leadership hopeful suggests UK model for Turkey-EU partnership,” 4 January 2021, https://www.duvarenglish.com/germanys-cdu-leadership-hopeful-friedrich-merz-suggests-uk-model-for-turkey-eu-partnership-news-55733 accessed 15 May 2021.
- Edgington, Tom and Chris Morris, “Brexit: What is the Northern Ireland Protocol and why are there checks?”, BBC News, 15 March 2021, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-53724381 accessed 15 May 2021.
- Euractiv, “Miliband: Turning Turkey away from EU ‘unconscionable’,” 27 Oct 2009, https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/miliband-turning-turkey-away-from-eu-unconscionable/, accessed 12 May 2021.
- Euronews, “Ankara Anlaşması'na başvuruda yüzde 6 bin artış,” 27 January 2021, https://tr.euronews.com/2018/03/23/turkiye-den-ankara-anlasmas-na-basvuruda-yuzde-6-bin-art-s, accessed 13 May 2021.
- Evans, Geoffrey and Jonathan Mellon, “Immigration, Euroscepticism, and the rise and fall of UKIP,” Party Politics 25, no. 1, 2019, pp. 76-87.
Freeden, Michael, “After the Brexit referendum: revisiting populism as an ideology,” Journal of Political Ideologies 22, no. 1, 2017, pp. 1-11.
- Glencross, Andrew, Why the UK Voted for Brexit: David Cameron's Great Miscalculation, London: Palgrave Pivot, 2016.
- Göktepe, Cihat, “The ‘forgotten Alliance’? Anglo‐Turkish Relations and CENTO, 1959–65,” Middle Eastern Studies 35, no. 4, 2006, pp. 103–29.
- Gov.uk, “Explanatory memorandum: UK/Turkey: Free Trade Agreement,” International Treaty UK/Turkey: Free Trade Agreement [CS Turkey no.1/2021] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ukturkey-free-trade-agreement-cs-turkey-no12021 accessed 14 May 2021.
- Gov.uk, “PM meeting with President Erdogan of Turkey,” 09 July 2016, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-meeting-with-president-erdogan-of-turkey-9-july-2016, accessed 23 May 2017.
- Gov.uk, “Strengthening UK-Turkey relations,” 09.02.2011, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/strengthening-uk-turkey-relations, Accessed 23 May 2017.
- Gov.uk, “UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson’s visit to Turkey,” 29.09.2016, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-foreign-secretary-boris-johnsons-visit-to-turkey, accessed 13 May 2021.
- Gürsoy, Yaprak and Ilke Toygür, “Turkey in and out of NATO? An instance of a turbulent alliance with Western institutions,” Analyses of the Elcano Royal Institute (ARI), 11 June 2018, http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/contenido?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/zonas_in/ARI73-2018-Gursoy-Toygur-Turkey-in-out-NATO-turbulent-alliance-Western-institutions accessed 13 May 2021.
- Gürsoy, Yaprak, “Reconsidering Britain’s Soft Power: Lessons from the Perceptions of the Turkish Political Elite,” Cambridge Review of International Affairs, Online First, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1080/09557571.2020.1832959.
- Gürsoy, Yaprak, Brexit: Türkiye-Birleşik Krallık-AB İlişkilerinde Siyasi ve Ekonomik Riskler ve Fırsatlar, İstanbul, DEİK, 2019.
- Hayward, Katy, “The pivotal position of the Irish border in the UK's withdrawal from the European Union”, Space and Polity 22, no. 2, 2018, pp. 238-254.
- HM Government, “Global Britain in a Competitive Age: The Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy,” March 2021, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/975077/Global_Britain_in_a_Competitive_Age-_the_Integrated_Review_of_Security__Defence__Development_and_Foreign_Policy.pdf accessed 13 May 2021.
- HM Government, “National Security Capability Review,” March 2018, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/705347/6.4391_CO_National-Security-Review_web.pdf accessed 13 May 2021.
- Horniker, Arthur Leon, “William Harborne and the Beginning of Anglo-Turkish Diplomatic and Commercial Relations,” The Journal of Modern History 14, no. 3, 1942, pp. 289-316.
- House of Commons Home Affairs Committee, “Implications for the Justice and Home Affairs Area of the Accession of Turkey to the European Union,” Tenth Report of Session 2010–12, 2011.
- House of Commons, “UK-Turkey relations and Turkey's regional role,” Foreign Affairs Committee - Twelfth Report of Session 2010-12, April 2012, https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cmfaff/1567/1567.pdf accessed 13 May 2021.
- Independent, “Theresa May approves £100m fighter jet deal with Erdogan despite human rights abuses,” 28 Jan 2017, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/theresa-may-agrees-100m-fighter-jet-dealwith-turkeys-erdogan-despite-human-rights-concerns-a7551006.html, accessed 23 June 2017.
- Isaac, Anna, “10 Key Details in the UK-EU Trade Deal”, Politico, 27 December 2020, https://www.politico.eu/article/10-key-details-uk-eu-brexit-trade-deal/ accessed 13 May 2021.
- İTO, Birleşik Krallık Ülke Etüdü, 2011, İTO, İstanbul.
- Jennings, Will and Martin Lodge, “Brexit, the tides and Canute: the fracturing politics of the British state,” Journal of European Public Policy 26, no. 5, 2019, pp. 772-789.
- Kenealy, Daniel, “How Did We Get Here? A Brief History of Britain’s Membership of the EU,” European Futures, 24 May 2016, https://www.europeanfutures.ed.ac.uk/how-did-we-get-here-a-brief-history-of-britains-membership-of-the-eu/.
- Ker-Lindsay, James, “A Difficult Transition to a New Relationship: Britain and Cyprus in the European Union”, Journal of Contemporary European Studies 15, no. 2, 2007, pp. 185-200.
- Kirişçi, Kemal, “Order from Chaos”, Brookings, 17 March 2021, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/03/17/as-eu-turkey-migration-agreement-reaches-the-five-year-mark-add-a-job-creation-element/ accessed 12 May 2021.
- Köymen, Oya B., “Anglo-Turkish Relations: 1919-1922,” The Turkish Yearbook 8, 1967, pp. 14-28 (p. 27-8).
- Londra Büyükelçiliği, “Ambassador's Statement at 'Turkey-UK Science and Innovation Platform’”, 21.11,2016, http://londra.be.mfa.gov.tr/ShowSpeech.aspx?ID=12070, accessed 23 May 2017.
- Londra Büyükelçiliği, “Ambassador’s Statement at the opening of BEKO’s Research and Development Centre”, 14.12.2016, http://londra.be.mfa.gov.tr/ShowSpeech.aspx?ID=12077, accessed 23 May 2017.
- Lowe, Sam, “Brexit trade deal means ‘freedom’, but at a cost: the arguments will be far from over”, The Guardian, 27 December 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2020/dec/27/britain-trade-deal-eu-arguments-brexit-renegotiation accessed 12 May 2021.
- Mance, Henry and Jim Pickard, “How David Cameron Could have Avoided an EU Leave Vote”, Financial Times, 25 June 2016, https://www.ft.com/content/4f8634c6-3873-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7 accessed 12 May 2021.
- Martin, Natalie, “From Containment to Realpolitik and Back Again: A Realist Constructivist Analysis of Turkey–EU Relations and the Migration Issue,” Journal of Common Market Studies 57, no. 6, 2019, pp. 1349-1365.
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