İl ve Sektör Düzeyinde Ekonomik Temel Çarpanların En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi ile Tahmin Edilmesi

Öz

Bu çalışmada bölgesel planlama ve kalkınma çalışmaları kapsamında, ihtiyaç duyulan işgücünün isabetli tespit edilmesi amacıyla geliştirilen ekonomik temel model yaklaşımı kullanılarak, sektör ve il düzeyinde temel çarpan değerleri en küçük kareler yöntemi ile tahmin edilmiştir. 2006-2017 yıllarını kapsayan 14 ana sektör ve 81 il için hesaplamalar yapılmıştır. İl düzeyinde sektör ve yıl ayırımı yapılmadan tahmin edilen temel çarpan değerlerinin 1,01 ile 4,64 arasında değiştiği ve ortalamasının 2,57 olduğu hesaplanmıştır. Sektörler ve iller bazında temel çarpan değerinin ortalamasının da 0,98 ile 4,71 arasında değiştiği bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• : Ekonomik temel model,temel çarpan,istihdam

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