İl ve Sektör Düzeyinde Ekonomik Temel Çarpanların En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi ile Tahmin Edilmesi

Year 2019, Volume: 3 Issue: 2, 1 - 24, 30.09.2019

Atilla Yardımcı

Abstract

Bu
çalışmada bölgesel planlama ve kalkınma çalışmaları kapsamında, ihtiyaç duyulan
işgücünün isabetli tespit edilmesi amacıyla geliştirilen ekonomik temel model
yaklaşımı kullanılarak, sektör ve il düzeyinde temel çarpan değerleri en küçük
kareler yöntemi ile tahmin edilmiştir. 2006-2017 yıllarını kapsayan 14 ana
sektör ve 81 il için hesaplamalar yapılmıştır. İl düzeyinde sektör ve yıl
ayırımı yapılmadan tahmin edilen temel çarpan değerlerinin 1,01 ile 4,64
arasında değiştiği ve ortalamasının 2,57 olduğu hesaplanmıştır. Sektörler ve
iller bazında temel çarpan değerinin ortalamasının da 0,98 ile 4,71 arasında
değiştiği bulunmuştur.

Keywords

: Ekonomik temel model, temel çarpan, istihdam

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