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İl ve Sektör Düzeyinde Ekonomik Temel Çarpanların En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi ile Tahmin Edilmesi

Year 2019, Volume: 3 Issue: 2, 1 - 24, 30.09.2019

Abstract

Bu
çalışmada bölgesel planlama ve kalkınma çalışmaları kapsamında, ihtiyaç duyulan
işgücünün isabetli tespit edilmesi amacıyla geliştirilen ekonomik temel model
yaklaşımı kullanılarak, sektör ve il düzeyinde temel çarpan değerleri en küçük
kareler yöntemi ile tahmin edilmiştir. 2006-2017 yıllarını kapsayan 14 ana
sektör ve 81 il için hesaplamalar yapılmıştır. İl düzeyinde sektör ve yıl
ayırımı yapılmadan tahmin edilen temel çarpan değerlerinin 1,01 ile 4,64
arasında değiştiği ve ortalamasının 2,57 olduğu hesaplanmıştır. Sektörler ve
iller bazında temel çarpan değerinin ortalamasının da 0,98 ile 4,71 arasında
değiştiği bulunmuştur.

References

  • Antara, M., Oka, S., Utami, D. (2017). Basis Sector in the Economic Structure of Badung Regency. Research in Applied Economics, 9 (3), 108-124.
  • Bond, D. (1990). Dynamic Regional Multipliers and The Economic Base: An Application of Applied Econometric Techniques. Papers of The Regional Science Association, 69, 21-30.
  • Çubukçu, M. (2011). The Spatil Distribution of Economic Base Multiplier: A GIS and Spatial Statistics –Based Cluster Analysis. ITU A|Z, 8(2), 49-62.
  • Dinc, M. (2015). Regional and Local Economic Analysis Tools. The World Bank.
  • Domanski, B. ve Gwosdz, K. (2010). Multiplier Effects in Local and Regional Development. Quaestiones Geographicae, 29(2), 27-37.
  • Faggio, G. ve Overman, H. (2014). The Effect of Public Sector Employment on Local Labour Markets. Journal of Urban Economics, 79, 91–107.
  • Froeschle, R. (2005). What to do With All This Data? The Role of Economic Base Analysis in Regional Economic Development. Economic Base Analysis Research, http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/classes/crp274/swenson/URP290/Readings/Updated%20Economic%20Base%20Analysis%202005_R_%20Froeschle.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.06.2019)
  • Gibson, L. J., Mark, M. M ve Gene, W. (1991). Location Quotient: A Basic Tool for Economic Development Analysis. Economic Development Review, 9 (2), 65-68.
  • Haig, R. M. (1926). Toward an Understanding of The Metropolis: The Assignment of Activities to Areas in Urban Regions. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 40(3),402–434.He, C. ve Zhu, S. (2017). Industrial Geography, In International Encyclopedia of Geography: People, the Earth, Environment and Technology (eds: D. Richardson, N. Castree, M. F. Goodchild, A. Kobayashi, W. Liu and R. A. Marston), Wiley-Blackwell.
  • Isserman, A. M. (1980). Estimating Export Activity in a Regional Economy: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Alternative Methods. Int. Regional Science Review, 5(2), 155-184.
  • Kahn, R.F. (1931). The Relation of Home Investment to Unemployment. The Economic Journal, 41, 173-198.
  • Macedo, G. ve Monasterio, L. (2016). Local Multiplier of Industrial Employment: Brazilian Mesoregions (2000-2010). Rev. Econ. Polit, 36 (4), 827-839.
  • Mathur, V. K., ve Rosen, H. S. (1974). Regional Employment Multipliers: A New Approach. Land Economics, 50, 93-96.
  • Moretti, E. ve Thulin, P. (2013). Local Multipliers and Human Capital in The United States and Sweden. Industrial and Corporate Change, 22(1), 339-362.
  • Mulkey, D. ve Hodges, A., W. (2003). Using IMPLAN to Assess Local Economic Impact. IFAS, University of Florida, Gainesville. https://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/pdffiles/fe/fe16800.pdf, (Erişim tarihi: 11.06.2019)
  • Mulligan, G.,F. ve Gibson, L., J. (1984). Regression Estimates of Economic Base Multipliers for Small Communities. Economic Geography, 60(3), 225-237.
  • Mulligan, M. (2010). Research methods in geography, Chapter 20. (edited by Basil Gomesz and John Paul Jones III), Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
  • Norcliffe, G.B. (1983). Using location quotients to estimate the economic base and trade flows. Regional Studies, 17(3), 161-168.
  • Quintero, J., P. (2007). Regional Economic Development: An Economic Base Study and Shift-Share Analysis of Hays County. Texas State University, Masters of Public Administration
  • Rusden, S., A. (1988). Management of the community economic base as a strategy for , economic development, (master thesis), The University of Arizona https://repository.arizona.edu/bitstream/handle/10150/276924/azu_td_1335848_sip1_w.pdf?sequence=4&isAllowed=y (Erişim tarihi: 11.06.2019)
  • Sambidi, P. (2008). Regional Industry Cluster Analysis for the Gulf Coast Economic Development District. Houston, Texas: Gulf Coast Economic Development District and the Houston-Galveston Area Council (H-GAC).
  • Silovska, H.,C. ve Kolarikova, J. (2016). Observation and Assessment Of Local Economic Development With Regard to The Application of The Local Multiplier, European Planning Studies, 24(11), 1978-1994.
  • Thulin, P. (2014). Local Multiplier and Economic Base Analysis, Swedish Enterpreneurship forum, working paper 29 https://entreprenorskapsforum.se/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/WP_29.pdf, (Erişim tarihi: 11.06.2019)
  • Thulin, P. (2015). Local multiplier and economic base analysis, Handbook of research methods and applications in economic geography. eds: Charlie Karlsson, Martin Andersson and Therese Norman, Edward Elgar Publishing Inc.
  • Tian, Z. (2013). Measuring Agglomeration Using the Standardized Location Quotient with a Bootstrap Method. JRAP, 43(2), 186-197
  • TÜİK Sınıflama sunucusu (https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/DIESS/siniflamasatirlisteaction.do?Surumıd=191&seviye=1&detay=H&turıd=1&turadi=%201.%20Faaliyet%20S%C4%b1n%C4%b1flamalar%C4%B1),Son erişim: 04.06.2019
  • Unur, K. (2004). Turizmin Ekonomik Etkilerinin Ölçülmesi. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 6(4), 114-142
  • Van, D. ve Jasper, J. (2017). Local Employment Multipliers in U.S. Cities. Journal of Economic Geography, 17(2), 465–487.
  • Vollet, D., Aubert, F., Frere, Q., Lepicier, D., Truchet, S. (2018). The Importance of Integrating Supply-Side Factors in Economic Base Models. Growth and Change, 49(1), 203–222.
  • Vollet, D. ve Bousset, J., P. (2002). Use of Meta-Analysis for the Comparison and Transfer of Economic Base Multipliers. Regional Studies, 36, 481-94.
  • Wang, X., Hofe, R. (2007). Research Methods in Urban and Regional Planning. Tsinghua University Press, Beijing and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
  • Weisbrod, G. ve Weisbrod, B. (1997) Measuring Economic Ipacts of Projects and Programs. Economic Development Research Group, http://edrgroup.com/pdf/econ-impact-primer.pdf (Erişim tarihi: 11.06.2019)
  • Weiss, S. ve Gooding E. (1968). Estimation of Differential Employment Multipliers in a Small Regional Economy. Land Economics, 44, 235-244.
  • Yardımcı, A. (2014). Kapasite Raporlarına Göre Ankara Sanayisinin Kümelenme Eğilimleri. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 25(92), 55-67.
Year 2019, Volume: 3 Issue: 2, 1 - 24, 30.09.2019

Abstract

References

  • Antara, M., Oka, S., Utami, D. (2017). Basis Sector in the Economic Structure of Badung Regency. Research in Applied Economics, 9 (3), 108-124.
  • Bond, D. (1990). Dynamic Regional Multipliers and The Economic Base: An Application of Applied Econometric Techniques. Papers of The Regional Science Association, 69, 21-30.
  • Çubukçu, M. (2011). The Spatil Distribution of Economic Base Multiplier: A GIS and Spatial Statistics –Based Cluster Analysis. ITU A|Z, 8(2), 49-62.
  • Dinc, M. (2015). Regional and Local Economic Analysis Tools. The World Bank.
  • Domanski, B. ve Gwosdz, K. (2010). Multiplier Effects in Local and Regional Development. Quaestiones Geographicae, 29(2), 27-37.
  • Faggio, G. ve Overman, H. (2014). The Effect of Public Sector Employment on Local Labour Markets. Journal of Urban Economics, 79, 91–107.
  • Froeschle, R. (2005). What to do With All This Data? The Role of Economic Base Analysis in Regional Economic Development. Economic Base Analysis Research, http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/classes/crp274/swenson/URP290/Readings/Updated%20Economic%20Base%20Analysis%202005_R_%20Froeschle.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 11.06.2019)
  • Gibson, L. J., Mark, M. M ve Gene, W. (1991). Location Quotient: A Basic Tool for Economic Development Analysis. Economic Development Review, 9 (2), 65-68.
  • Haig, R. M. (1926). Toward an Understanding of The Metropolis: The Assignment of Activities to Areas in Urban Regions. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 40(3),402–434.He, C. ve Zhu, S. (2017). Industrial Geography, In International Encyclopedia of Geography: People, the Earth, Environment and Technology (eds: D. Richardson, N. Castree, M. F. Goodchild, A. Kobayashi, W. Liu and R. A. Marston), Wiley-Blackwell.
  • Isserman, A. M. (1980). Estimating Export Activity in a Regional Economy: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Alternative Methods. Int. Regional Science Review, 5(2), 155-184.
  • Kahn, R.F. (1931). The Relation of Home Investment to Unemployment. The Economic Journal, 41, 173-198.
  • Macedo, G. ve Monasterio, L. (2016). Local Multiplier of Industrial Employment: Brazilian Mesoregions (2000-2010). Rev. Econ. Polit, 36 (4), 827-839.
  • Mathur, V. K., ve Rosen, H. S. (1974). Regional Employment Multipliers: A New Approach. Land Economics, 50, 93-96.
  • Moretti, E. ve Thulin, P. (2013). Local Multipliers and Human Capital in The United States and Sweden. Industrial and Corporate Change, 22(1), 339-362.
  • Mulkey, D. ve Hodges, A., W. (2003). Using IMPLAN to Assess Local Economic Impact. IFAS, University of Florida, Gainesville. https://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/pdffiles/fe/fe16800.pdf, (Erişim tarihi: 11.06.2019)
  • Mulligan, G.,F. ve Gibson, L., J. (1984). Regression Estimates of Economic Base Multipliers for Small Communities. Economic Geography, 60(3), 225-237.
  • Mulligan, M. (2010). Research methods in geography, Chapter 20. (edited by Basil Gomesz and John Paul Jones III), Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
  • Norcliffe, G.B. (1983). Using location quotients to estimate the economic base and trade flows. Regional Studies, 17(3), 161-168.
  • Quintero, J., P. (2007). Regional Economic Development: An Economic Base Study and Shift-Share Analysis of Hays County. Texas State University, Masters of Public Administration
  • Rusden, S., A. (1988). Management of the community economic base as a strategy for , economic development, (master thesis), The University of Arizona https://repository.arizona.edu/bitstream/handle/10150/276924/azu_td_1335848_sip1_w.pdf?sequence=4&isAllowed=y (Erişim tarihi: 11.06.2019)
  • Sambidi, P. (2008). Regional Industry Cluster Analysis for the Gulf Coast Economic Development District. Houston, Texas: Gulf Coast Economic Development District and the Houston-Galveston Area Council (H-GAC).
  • Silovska, H.,C. ve Kolarikova, J. (2016). Observation and Assessment Of Local Economic Development With Regard to The Application of The Local Multiplier, European Planning Studies, 24(11), 1978-1994.
  • Thulin, P. (2014). Local Multiplier and Economic Base Analysis, Swedish Enterpreneurship forum, working paper 29 https://entreprenorskapsforum.se/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/WP_29.pdf, (Erişim tarihi: 11.06.2019)
  • Thulin, P. (2015). Local multiplier and economic base analysis, Handbook of research methods and applications in economic geography. eds: Charlie Karlsson, Martin Andersson and Therese Norman, Edward Elgar Publishing Inc.
  • Tian, Z. (2013). Measuring Agglomeration Using the Standardized Location Quotient with a Bootstrap Method. JRAP, 43(2), 186-197
  • TÜİK Sınıflama sunucusu (https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/DIESS/siniflamasatirlisteaction.do?Surumıd=191&seviye=1&detay=H&turıd=1&turadi=%201.%20Faaliyet%20S%C4%b1n%C4%b1flamalar%C4%B1),Son erişim: 04.06.2019
  • Unur, K. (2004). Turizmin Ekonomik Etkilerinin Ölçülmesi. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 6(4), 114-142
  • Van, D. ve Jasper, J. (2017). Local Employment Multipliers in U.S. Cities. Journal of Economic Geography, 17(2), 465–487.
  • Vollet, D., Aubert, F., Frere, Q., Lepicier, D., Truchet, S. (2018). The Importance of Integrating Supply-Side Factors in Economic Base Models. Growth and Change, 49(1), 203–222.
  • Vollet, D. ve Bousset, J., P. (2002). Use of Meta-Analysis for the Comparison and Transfer of Economic Base Multipliers. Regional Studies, 36, 481-94.
  • Wang, X., Hofe, R. (2007). Research Methods in Urban and Regional Planning. Tsinghua University Press, Beijing and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
  • Weisbrod, G. ve Weisbrod, B. (1997) Measuring Economic Ipacts of Projects and Programs. Economic Development Research Group, http://edrgroup.com/pdf/econ-impact-primer.pdf (Erişim tarihi: 11.06.2019)
  • Weiss, S. ve Gooding E. (1968). Estimation of Differential Employment Multipliers in a Small Regional Economy. Land Economics, 44, 235-244.
  • Yardımcı, A. (2014). Kapasite Raporlarına Göre Ankara Sanayisinin Kümelenme Eğilimleri. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 25(92), 55-67.
There are 34 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Atilla Yardımcı

Publication Date September 30, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2019 Volume: 3 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Yardımcı, A. (2019). İl ve Sektör Düzeyinde Ekonomik Temel Çarpanların En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi ile Tahmin Edilmesi. Başkent Üniversitesi Ticari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 3(2), 1-24.