Müzakerenin Beş Aşaması ve Burundi Barış Süreci

Year 2025, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 18 - 42, 28.07.2025

Oncel Sencerman

Abstract

Soğuk Savaş’ın sona ermesinin ardından özellikle iç savaşlar şeklinde ortaya çıkan ülke içi çatışmalar giderek daha yaygın hale gelmiştir. Bu çatışmalar, özellikle Sahraaltı Afrika’da yoğunluk göstermiştir. Ülke içi şiddetli çatışmalarda, çatışmanın çözülmesi ve barışın yeniden tesis edilmesi, yalnızca çatışan tarafların değil, aynı zamanda diyalog ve müzakere sürecini kolaylaştıran üçüncü taraf aktörlerin de yoğun çabalarını gerektirmektedir. Ancak, müzakereler yoluyla kapsamlı bir barış anlaşmasına ulaşılması, müzakere sürecinin başarıya ulaştığı anlamına gelmemektedir. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, ülke içi çatışmalar bağlamında, müzakere sürecinin, hızlı ve tek seferlik bir çözüm olarak görülmemesi gerektiğini ileri sürmektir. Aksine, bu süreç ön müzakere, hazırlık, resmi müzakere, uygulama ve müzakere sonrası olmak üzere beş temel aşamadan oluşan uzun soluklu ve çok boyutlu bir süreçtir. Bu çalışma, müzakere süreçlerinin başarısını belirlemede ön müzakerenin önemini ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır ve etkili bir müzakere sürecinin, ön müzakere, hazırlık, resmi müzakere, uygulama ve müzakere sonrası olmak üzere beş temel aşamadan mürekkep olduğunu ileri sürmektedir. Bu çalışma, özellikle Burundi barış sürecinin başarısında müzakere sürecinin beş aşamasının rolünü incelemeyi amaçlamakta ve araştırma yöntemi olarak vaka analizi ile süreç izleme yönteminden faydalanmaktadır. Çalışmanın temel bulgusu, müzakere sürecinin beş aşamayı içermesinin, barış sürecinin başarısı için önemli bir koşul teşkil ettiğidir. Başka bir deyişle, beş temel aşamayı içeren uzun süreli müzakere süreçleri daha olumlu sonuçlar doğurma eğilimindedir.

Keywords

Burundi, Müzakere Kuramı, Çatışma Çözümleme, Barış Anlaşmaları

The Five Negotiation Phases and the Burundian Peace Process

Abstract

The intra-state conflicts have been increasingly prevalent, with a notable escalation in frequency, particularly in the form of civil wars following the end of the Cold War. These conflicts have demonstrated significant intensity, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. Achieving resolution and restoring peace in such contexts requires substantial effort not only from the conflicting parties but also from third-party actors facilitating dialogue and negotiation. Nevertheless, the attainment of a comprehensive peace agreement through negotiation does not inherently indicate the success of the negotiation process itself. The main aim of this study is to argue that the negotiation process in the context of intra-state conflicts should not be perceived as a singular event yielding an immediate resolution. Rather, it is a protracted and multifaceted process consisting of five critical stages: pre-negotiation, preparation, negotiation proper, implementation, and post-negotiation. This study further seeks to highlight the pivotal role of the pre-negotiation phase in determining the overall success of negotiation processes. It contends that effective negotiation comprises five critical stages: pre-negotiation, preparation, formal negotiation, implementation, and post-negotiation. This study primarily seeks to address the roles of the five phases of the negotiation process in the success of the Burundian peace process, and employs case study and process tracing as research methods. The principal finding of this study is that a peace process including the five phases of negotiation constitutes a significant condition for its success. In other words, extended negotiation processes with five significant phases are more likely to yield favorable outcomes.

Keywords

Burundi, Negotiation Theory, Conflict Resolution, Peace Settlements

References

• ACCORD (2007). The African Centre for Constructive Resolution of Disputes https://www. accord.org.za/contact-us/ Access Date: 14/11/2017
• Anonymous (2000). Burundi’s Search for Peace, Strategic Comments, 6(5). (1-2).
• Avenhaus, R. and Zartman, I. W. (2007). Diplomacy Games - Formal Models and International Negotiations, Springer Books, Berlin.
• Aggestam, K. (2005). Enhancing ripeness: Transition from conflict to negotiation. W. I. Zartman and G. O. Faure (Ed.). in Escalation and Negotiation in International Conflicts, (111-140). Cambridge University Press, the UK.
• Armengol, F. C. (2013). The Principles of Mediation and the Role of Third Parties in Peace Processes, NOREF September Report.
• Arusha Peace Accord (1993). Government of the Republic of Rwanda and the Rwandese Patriotic Front, 04 August 1993, www.peacemaker.un.org Access Date: 12/06/2015.
• Arusha Peace and Reconciliation Agreement for Burundi (2000). 28 August 2000, www.peacemaker. un.org Access Date: 12/06/2015.
• Barltrop, R. (2008). The Negotiation of Security Issues in the Burundi Peace Talks, Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue (Country Study No.1). (1-52).
• Bell, C., and Badanjak, S. (2019). Introducing PA-X: A new peace agreement database and dataset. Journal of Peace Research, 56(3), 452-466.
• Bercovitch, J. (2002). Studies in International Mediation. Palgrave Macmillan, J. Bercovitch (Ed.) New York, USA.
• Berridge, G. R. (2015). Diplomacy: Theory and Practice, Palgrave Macmillian, New York, USA.
• Boshoff, H., Vrey, W., and Rautenbach, G. (2010). The Burundi Peace Process From civil war to conditional peace.www.issafrica.org Access Date: 13/11/2017.
• Curtis, D. (2003). The Peace Process in Burundi: Successful African Intervention? www.igd.org.za Access Date: 13/11/2017.
• Curtis, D. and Nibigirwe, G. (2010). Complementary Approaches to Peacekeeping? The African Union and United Nations in Burundi. Besada H. (Ed.). in Crafting and African Security Architecture: Addressing Regional Peace and Conflict in the 21st Century, (109-128). Ashgate.
• Daley, P. (2007). The Burundi peace negotiations: An African experience of peace-making. Review of African Political Economy, 34(112). (333–352).
• Dar-es-Salaam Agreement (2006). Dar-es-Salaam Agreement on Principles Towards lasting Peace, Security and Stability in Burundi, The Government of the Republic of Burundi and the Palipehutu- FNL, 18 June 2006, Access Date: 02/09/2020.
• Eck, J. Van. (2012). Burundi: An ongoing search for durable peace Burundi : An ongoing search for durable peace. Security Studies, (March). (37–41).
• Falch, A. and Becker M. (2008). Power-sharing and Peacebuilding in Burundi: Power-sharing Agreements, Negotiations and Peace Processes, Center for the Study of Civil War, PRIO.
• Faure, G. O. (2005). Deadlocks in Negotiation Dynamics. William I. Zartman and Guy Olivier Faure (Ed.) in Escalation and Negotiation in International Conflicts, (23-52). Cambridge University Press, the UK.
• Fisas, V. (2012). Barış Süreci El Kitabı. http://escolapau.uab. cat/img/programas/procesos/ turk_baski.pdf Access Date: 14/12/2017. Gewurz, I. G. (2000). Transition from Conflict: The Importance of Prenegotiations in the Oslo Peace Process, Israel Affairs, 6(3-4). (177-199).
• Hajayandi, P. (2015). Negotiations and Power Sharing Arrangements. G. Sher and A. Kurz (Ed.) in Burundi’s Peace Process: Achievements and Challenges in Negotiating in Times of Conflict (141-154). Institute for National Security Studies, Tel Aviv, Israel.
• Hampson, F. O., Crocker, C. A. and Aall, P. R. (2007). Negotiation and International Conflict. Charles Webel and Johan Galtung (Ed.) in Handbook of Peace and Conflict Studies, Routledge, the USA.
• Hartzell, C. A. and Hoddie, M. (2007). Crafting Peace: Powersharing Institutions and The Negotiated Settlement of Civil Wars, The Pennsylvania State University Press, the USA.
• Hoddie, M. and Hartzell, C. (2003). Civil War Settlements and the Implementation of Military Powersharing Arrangements, Journal of Peace Research, 40(3). (303-320).
• Horowitz, S. (2007). Mediation. C. Webel and J. Galtung (Ed.) in Handbook of Peace and Conflict Studies, Routledge, the USA.
• ICG African Briefing Report (2002). The Burundi Rebellion and the Ceasefire Negotiations, Nairobi and Brussels.
• Khadiagala, G. M. (2007). Mediation efforts in Africa’s Great Lakes Region Mediation efforts in Africa’s Great Lakes Region, www.africaportal.org Access Date: 24/11/2017.
• Korobkin, R. (2002). Negotiation Theory and Strategy, Aspen Law and Business, the USA.
• Krueger, R. and Krueger, K. (2007). From Bloodshed to Hope in Burundi, Our Embassy Years, University of Texas Press.
• Lemarchand, R. (2009). The Dynamics of Violence in Central Africa, University of Pennsylvania Press. Lilja, J. (2011), Ripening Within? Strategies Used by Rebel Negotiators to End Ethnic War. Negotiation Journal, 27, 311-342.
• McClintock, E. A. and Nahimana, T. (2008). Managing the Tension Between Inclusionary and Exclusionary Processes: Building Peace in Burundi, International Negotiation, 13, (73-91).
• Martin, P. (2013). Coming Together: Power-sharing and the Durability of Negotiated Peace Settlements, Civil Wars, 15(3). (332-358).
• Mezzera, M., Pavicic, M. and Specker, L. (2009). Governance Components in Peace Agreements: Fundamental Elements of State and Peace Building?, Conflict Research Unit, Netherlands Institute of International Relations, The Hague.
• Mtembu-Salter, G. (2015). Peace and Peace Agreements in Burundi, When the Right Time Comes. G. Maina and E. Melander (Eds.) in Peace Agreements and Durable Peace in Africa, (47-84). University of KwaZulu-Natal Press.
• Park, J. (2010). Conflict Management and Mediation Theory: South Africa’s Role in Burundi’s Civil Conflict. International Area Studies Review, 13(3). (181–201).
• Piombo, J. (2010). Peacemaking in Burundi: Conflict Resolution versus Conflict Management Strategies, Africa Security, 3, (239-272).
• Pretoria Protocol I (2003). Pretoria Protocol on Political Defence and Security Power-Sharing in Burundi, The Transitional Government of Burundi and the CNDD-FDD Movement, 08 October 2003. www.peacemaker.un.org Access Date: 02/09/2020.
• Pretoria Protocol II (2003). Pretoria Protocol on Outstanding Issues of Political, Defence and Security Power-Sharing in Burundi, The Transitional Government of Burundi and the CNDD- FDD Movement, 02 November 2003, www.peacemaker.un.org Access Date: 02/09/2020. Pruitt, D. G. (2005). Escalation, Readiness for Negotiation, and Third-Party Functions. W. I. Zartman and G. O. Faure (Ed.). Escalation and Negotiation in International Conflicts (111-140). Cambridge University Press, the UK.
• Raiffa, H. (1994). The Art and Science of Negotiation, Harvard University Press, the USA.
• Reyntjens, F. (2000). Burundi: prospects for peace. Minority Rights Group International Group, London, the UK.
• Rodt, A. P. (2012). The African union mission in Burundi. Civil Wars, 14(3). (373–392).
• Rothchild, D. (2005). Reassuring Weaker Parties After Civil Wars: The Benefits and Costs of Executive Power-sharing Systems in Africa, Ethnopolitics, 4(3). (247-267).
• Sahadevan, P. (2006). Negotiating Peace in Ethnic Wars, International Studies, 43(3). (239-266).
• Salacuse J. W. (1999). Your Draft or Mine? J. William Breslin and Jeffrey Z. Rubin (Ed.) in Negotiation Theory and Practice, Program on Negotiation Books, Cambridge, USA.
• Salacuse J. W. (2000). Lessons for Practice. I. William Zartman and Jeffrey Z. Rubin (Ed.) in Power and Negotiation, The University of Michigan Press, the USA.
• Salacuse, J. W. (2008). Seven Secrets for Negotiating with Government, How to Deal with Local, State, National or Foreign Governments - and Come Out Ahead, AMACOM, the USA.
• Salacuse, J. W. (2013). Negotiating Life: Secrets for Everyday Diplomacy and Dealmaking, Palgrave Macmillan, the USA.
• Saunders, H. H. (1985). We need a larger theory of negotiation: The importance of pre-negotiation phases, Negotiation Journal, 1(3). (249-262).
• Sencerman, Ö. (2021). “Are All Negotiated Peace Agreements Final? Reconstructing and Maintaining Peace in Rwanda and Burundi”, The Yalova University, Graduate School of Social Sciences, Department of International Relations, Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation.
• Southall, R. (2006). A Long Prelude to Peace: African Involvement in Ending Burundi’s War. O. Furley and R. May (Ed.) in Ending Africa’s Wars: Processing to Peace, (201-220). Ashgate.
• Stein, J. G. (1989). Getting to the Table: The Triggers, Stages, Functions, and Consequences of Prenegotiation, International Journal, 44(2). (475-504).
• Tomlin, B. W. (1989). The Stages of Prenegotiation: The Decision to Negotiate North American Free Trade, International Journal, 44(2). (254-279).
• Touval, S. (2000). The Impact of Multiple Asymmetries on Arab-Israeli Negotiations. I. William Zartman and Jeffrey Z. Rubin (Ed.) in Power and Negotiation, The University of Michigan Press, the USA.
• United Nations, Security Council (1993). Resolution, Rwanda, S/RES/872, (05 October 1993) www.undocs.org Access Date: 02/09/2020.
• Uvin, P. (2009). Life after violence: a people’s story of Burundi, African Arguments. Vandeginste, S. (2009). Power-sharing, Conflict and Transition in Burundi: Twenty Years of Trial and Error, Africa Spectrum, 44(3). (63-86).
• Wagemann, C. and Schneider C. Q. (2010). Standards of Good Practice in Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) and Fuzzy-Sets, Comparative Sociology, 9(3). (397-418).
• Wilén, N. (2012). Justifying interventions in Africa: (De)Stabilizing Sovereignty in Liberia, Burundi and the Congo. Justifying Interventions in Africa: (De)Stabilizing Sovereignty in Liberia, Burundi and the Congo, Palgrave Macmillan. Winham, G. R. (1989). The Prenegotiation Phase of the Uruguay Round, International Journal, 44(2). (280-303).
• Wolpe, H. (2011). Making peace after genocide - Anatomy of the Burundi Process. Peaceworks. April.
• Zartman, W. I. (1975). Negotiations: Theory and Reality, Journal of International Affairs, 29(1). (69- 77).
• Zartman W. I. (2000). Ripeness: The Hurting Stalemate and Beyond. Paul C. Stern and Daniel Druckman (Ed.) in International Conflict Resolution After the Cold War, (225-250). National Academy Press, Washington DC, the USA. Zartman, W. I. (2007). Peacemaking in International Conflict, United States Institute of Peace Press. Zartman, W. I. (2008). Negotiation and Conflict Management, Routledge, the USA.
• Zartman, W. I. (2009). Conflict Resolution and Negotiation. Jacob Bercovitch, Viktor Kremenyuk and I. William Zartman (Ed.) in The SAGE Handbook of Conflict Resolution, (322-339). SAGE Publications.
• Zartman, W. I. (2012). Process Reasons for Failure. Guy Olivier Faure (Ed.) in Unfinished Business: Why International Negotiations Fail, University of Georgia Press.
• Zartman, W. I. (2013). Mediation Roles for Large Small Countries, Canadian Foreign Policy Journal, 19(1). (13-25).