Hâkim Mali Rejimin Belirlenmesinde Doğrusal Yöntemlerin Gücü: Türkiye İncelemesi

Abstract

Fiyat Düzeyinin Mali Teorisi (the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, FTPL), enflasyon hedefleme stratejisinin uygulandığı ekonomilerde eğer hakim rejim Ricardocu olmayan ise para politikalarının fiyat düzeyini kontrol etmede yetersiz kalacağını, bu nedenle optimum politikanın her koşulda, para ve maliye politikalarının bir birleşiminden oluşması gerektiğini ileri sürmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’deki hâkim maliye politikası rejiminin ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımının kullanılarak incelenmesi ve elde edilen sonuçların gerçek gözlemlerle kıyaslanmasıdır. İnceleme dönemi 1996-2019 aralığını kapsamaktadır ve çeyrek yıllık veri seti kullanılmıştır. Hükümetin maliye politikasına ilişkin gerçek davranışının yapısal denge ile daha doğru şekilde gözlemlenebileceği varsayımından hareketle, faiz dışı dengenin alt bileşenleri de (yapısal denge ve devresel denge) analize dâhil edilmiştir. İnceleme dönemi boyunca Türkiye ekonomisinde para ve maliye politikalarında değişikliğe yol açabilecek önemli kırılmalar yaşanmıştır. Olası politika değişikliklerini gözlemleyebilmek için örneklemi farklı dönemlere bölmek yerine, dönemler arasındaki farklılığı yansıtacak kukla değişkenler kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçları, yapısal dengenin, hükümetin uyguladığı maliye politikasına yönelik gerçek davranışı daha doğru şekilde yansıttığını göstermektedir. Elde edilen bir diğer sonuç, doğrusal ARDL yaklaşımının özellikle mali alanın daraldığı dönemlerde maliye politikasındaki değişimleri yakalamakta yetersiz kaldığıdır.

Keywords

• Fiyat Düzeyinin Mali Teorisi
• Yapısal Bütçe Dengesi
• Ricardocu-Ricardocu Olmayan Rejim
• ARD

The Power of Linear Methods in Determining the Dominant Fiscal Regime: A Research on Turkiye

Abstract

The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level suggests that in a non-Ricardian regime, an inflation targeting monetary policy will no longer be able to control the price level, and that optimum policy should always include a combination of monetary and fiscal policies. The aim of this paper is to investigate the dominant fiscal policy regime in Turkiye using the ARDL Bounds Testing Approach and to compare the results with actual observations. The review period covers 1996–2019 period for which the quarterly data set is used. Based on the assumption that the actual behavior of the government’s fiscal policy can be observed more accurately with the structural balance, the sub-components of primary balance (structural and cyclical balance) are also included in the analysis. During the review period, there were important breaks in the Turkish economy that could lead to changes in monetary and fiscal policies. To observe possible policy changes, rather than dividing the sample into different periods, dummy variables were used to reflect the difference between periods. The results of the analysis show that the structural balance more accurately reflects the actual behavior of the government’s fiscal policy. Another finding is that the linear ARDL approach is insufficient to capture the changes in the fiscal policy, especially in the periods when the fiscal space narrows.

Keywords

• The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
• Structural Budget Balance
• Ricardian non- Ricardian
• ARDL

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