The Association Between Tax Revenues and Government Expenditures: Econometric Evidence from Selected Economies

Abstract

This research studies the tax revenue-government expenditure relationship in four selected economies: the United States of America (USA), the United Kingdom (UK), South Africa, and South Korea. In this respect, this study utilizes the augmented autoregressive distributed lag model and Toda-Yamamoto causality test, which allow time series to be integrated of different orders, to analyze the annual data covering the 1972-2021 period. The evidence reveals that the tax-and-spend hypothesis is valid in the USA and S. Africa, with a significant positive long-run effect of revenues on expenditures. Moreover, the findings support the spend-and-tax hypothesis for S. Korea, while the institutional separation hypothesis is valid in the UK. Relevant policy implications are suggested for these economies based on the research results.

Keywords

• Tax Revenue
• Government Expenditure
• Cointegration
• Causality

Vergi Hasılatı ve Kamu Harcamaları İlişkisi: Seçilmiş Ekonomilerden Ekonometrik Bulgular

Abstract

Bu çalışmada vergi hasılatı-kamu harcamaları ilişkisi, seçilmiş dört ekonomi (Amerika Birleşik Devletleri-ABD, Birleşik Krallık-BK), Güney Afrika-GA) ve Güney Kore-GK)) için araştırılmıştır. Bu kapsamda zaman serilerinin farklı mertebelerde durağan olmasına izin veren, genişletilmiş otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikmeli model ve Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi kullanılarak 1972-2021 dönemini kapsayan yıllık veriler incelenmiştir. Bulgulara göre vergilendir ve harca hipotezi ABD ve Güney Afrika’da geçerlidir ve uzun dönemde vergi hasılatı, kamu harcamalarını artırmaktadır. Ayrıca sonuçlar G. Kore’de harca ve vergilendir hipotezinin; Birleşik Krallık’ta ise kurumsal ayrışma hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu bulgular temel alınarak ilgili ülkeler üzerine politika çıkarımları sunulmuştur.

Keywords

• Vergi Geliri
• Kamu Harcaması
• Eşbütünleşme
• Nedensellik

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