Merkez Bankası Rezervleri ile Politika Faizi İlişkisi: Yeni Sanayileşen Ülkelerden Kanıtlar

Abstract

Merkez bankası rezervleri ve faiz oranı kararları arasındaki ilişki, özellikle Yeni Sanayileşen Ülkelerde (NICs) para politikasının kritik bir yönüdür. Bu ekonomilerdeki merkez bankaları genellikle sermaye akışlarını yönetmek, finansal istikrarı korumak ve ekonomik büyümeyi sağlamak gibi zorluklarla karşı karşıyadır. Merkez bankası rezervlerinin faiz oranı kararlarını nasıl doğrudan etkilediğini, faiz oranlarındaki değişikliklerin rezervleri nasıl etkilediğini karşılaştırmalı olarak analiz etmek çalışmanın temel amacını oluşturmaktadır. Yeni Sanayileşen Ülkeler için 2015-2025 zaman aralığı, aylık veriler ile incelenmiştir. Rezerv ve politika faizini belirleyen faktörler, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde sadece ekonomik değil aynı zamanda jeopolitik unsurlarla da şekillenmektedir. Merkez bankalarının faiz politikaları enflasyon ve döviz kuruna doğrudan tepki verirken, rezerv birikimi ve jeopolitik risklere daha stratejik yaklaşım sergilediği görülmektedir. Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde politika faizinin istikrarı için enflasyon hedeflemesinin net, rezerv pozisyonunun güçlü ve jeopolitik kırılganlıkların minimize edilmesi gereklidir.

Keywords

• Makroekonomi
• Para Politikası
• Merkez Bankaları ve Politikaları

The Relationship Between Central Bank Reserves and Policy Interest Rates: Evidence from Newly Industrialized Countries

Abstract

The relationship between central bank reserves and interest rate decisions is a critical aspect of monetary policy, particularly in Newly Industrialized Countries (NICs). Central banks in these economies frequently face challenges such as managing capital flows, maintaining financial stability, and promoting economic growth. The primary objective of this study is to comparatively analyze how central bank reserves directly influence interest rate decisions and how changes in interest rates affect reserves. Monthly data for the 2015-2025 timeframe is used for NICs. The determinants of reserves and policy rates in developing countries are shaped not only by economic factors but also by geopolitical factors. While central bank interest rate policies directly respond to inflation and exchange rates, they appear to adopt a more strategic approach to reserve accumulation and geopolitical risks. In developing countries, clear inflation targeting, a strong reserve position, and minimizing geopolitical vulnerabilities are essential for policy rate stability.

Keywords

• Macroeconomics
• Monetary Policy
• Central Banks and Policies

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