The Economic Effects of Migration: An Evaluation of Its Impact on Inflation, Unemployment, and Income Distribution

Abstract

This study analyzes the effects of migration on inflation, unemployment, and income distribution. Migration has been a significant phenomenon throughout history, shaping the economic and social structures of societies. From an economic perspective, the effects of migration on inflation are both supply-side and demand-side. The participation of migrants in the labor market may lead to wage suppression in certain sectors due to an increase in low-skilled labor. However, at the same time, rising demand for housing, food, and healthcare services may drive prices upward, thereby contributing to inflation. The relationship between migration and unemployment is complex. While the participation of migrants in employment may stimulate the economy and reduce unemployment, it may also increase competition particularly for low-skilled native workers leading to a rise in unemployment rates. In terms of income distribution, migration can produce both inequality-increasing and inequality-reducing effects. Although migrants often work in low-wage jobs, which can exacerbate income inequality, their long-term economic contributions and entrepreneurial activities may generate employment. In conclusion, the macroeconomic effects of migration vary depending on the economic structure, labor market dynamics, and social policies of the host countries. Therefore, the effective management of migration flows, the successful implementation of integration policies, and the development of sustainable economic strategies are critically important for ensuring economic stability.

Keywords

• Migration
• Inflation
• Unemployment
• Income Distribution

Göçün Ekonomik Etkileri: Enflasyon, İşsizlik ve Gelir Dağılımı Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme

Abstract

Bu çalışma, göçün enflasyon, işsizlik ve gelir dağılımı üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmektedir. Göç, tarih boyunca toplumların ekonomik ve sosyal yapısını şekillendiren önemli bir olgu olmuştur. Ekonomik açıdan incelendiğinde, göçün enflasyon üzerindeki etkileri hem arz hem de talep yönlüdür. Göçmenlerin iş gücü piyasasına katılımı, düşük vasıflı iş gücünün artmasına bağlı olarak bazı sektörlerde ücretlerin baskılanmasına neden olabilir. Ancak, aynı zamanda konut, gıda ve sağlık hizmetlerine olan talebin artması fiyatları yükselterek enflasyonu artırabilir. Göç ve işsizlik arasındaki ilişki karmaşıktır. Göçmenlerin istihdama katılımı ekonomiyi canlandırıp işsizliği azaltabileceği gibi, özellikle düşük vasıflı yerli işçiler açısından rekabeti artırarak işsizlik oranlarını yükseltebilir. Gelir dağılımı açısından ise; göç hem eşitsizliği artırıcı hem de azaltıcı etkiler yaratabilir. Göçmenlerin genellikle düşük ücretli işlerde çalışmaları gelir eşitsizliğini derinleştirebilirken, uzun vadede ekonomik katkıları ve girişimcilik faaliyetleri istihdam yaratabilir. Sonuç olarak, göçün makroekonomik etkileri, göç alan ülkelerin ekonomik yapısına, iş gücü piyasası dinamiklerine ve sosyal politikalarına bağlı olarak değişmektedir. Bu nedenle, göç hareketlerinin iyi yönetilmesi, entegrasyon politikalarının etkin bir şekilde uygulanması ve sürdürülebilir ekonomik politikaların geliştirilmesi ekonomik istikrar açısından kritik öneme sahiptir.

Keywords

• Göç
• Enflasyon
• İşsizlik
• Gelir dağılımı

References

1. Aslan, A. & Altınoz, B. (2020). The Ralationship between Unemployment and İmmigration with Linear and Nonlinear Causality Tests: Evidence from the United States. Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, 12(1), 13-24.
2. Atkinson, A. B. (2015). Inequality: What Can Be Done? Harvard University Press.
3. Autor, D. H. (2015). Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(3), 3-30.
4. Blanchard, O., & Johnson, D. R. (2013). Macroeconomics. Pearson.
5. Borjas, G. J. (2015). Immigration Economics. Harvard University Press.
6. Borjas, G. J. (2017). Labor Economics. McGraw-Hill Education.
7. Boubtane, E., Coulibaly, D., & Rault, C. (2013). Immigration, unemployment and GDP in the host country: Bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis on OECD countries. Economic Modelling, 33, 261-269.
8. Boyd, M. (1989). Family and personal networks in international migration: Recent developments and new agendas. International Migration Review, 23(3), 638-670.

9. Byerlee, D. (1974). Rural-urban migration in Africa: Theory, policy and research implications. International Migration Review, 8(4), 543–566.
10. Card, D. (2009). Immigration and Inequality. American Economic Review, 99(2), 1-21.
11. Castles, S., de Haas, H., & Miller, M. J. (2014). The age of migration: International population movements in the modern world. Macmillan International Higher Education.
12. Chiswick, B. R., & Miller, P. W. (2009). Earnings and Occupational Attainment among Immigrants. Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, 48(3), 454-465.
13. Clark, A., & Oswald, A. J. (1994). Unhappiness and Unemployment. The Economic Journal, 104(424), 648-659.
14. Clements, B., Coady, D., De Mooij, R., & Gupta, S. (2015). Inequality and Fiscal Policy. International Monetary Fund.
15. Docquier, F., & Rapoport, H. (2012). Globalization, Brain Drain, and Development. Journal of Economic Literature, 50(3), 681-730.
16. Dustmann, C., Frattini, T., & Preston, I. P. (2016). The Effect of Immigration along the Distribution of Wages. The Review of Economic Studies, 80(1), 145-173.
17. Esping-Andersen, G. (1990). The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism. Princeton University Press.
18. Esposito, P., Collignon, S., & Scicchitano, S. (2020). The effect of immigration on unemployment in Europe: Does the core-periphery dualism matter? Economic Modelling, 84, 249-258.
19. Friedberg, R. M., & Hunt, J. (1995). The Impact of Immigrants on Host Country Wages, Employment, and Growth. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(2), 23-44.
20. Friedman, M. (1968). The Role of Monetary Policy. American Economic Review, 58(1), 1-17.
21. Harris, J. R., & Todaro, M. P. (1970). Migration, unemployment and development: A two-sector analysis. American Economic Review, 60(1), 126-142.
22. Kabaklarlı, E. (2016). Multeci Akımını Belirleyen Faktorlerin Makro Ekonomik Panel Veri Analizi (Ortadoğu ve Turkiye). Aksaray Universitesi İİBF Dergisi, 8(2), 56-60.
23. Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. Macmillan.
24. Kok, P. (1999). The definition of migration and its application: Making sense of recent South African census and survey data. Southern African Journal of Demography, 7(1), 19–30.
25. Konuk, T., & Engin, C. (2023). Uluslararası Göçün İşsizlik ve Enflasyon Üzerine Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi, Marmara Üniversitesi Öneri Dergisi,18(60), 291-317
26. Krugman, P. (2013). End This Depression Now! W. W. Norton & Company.
27. Labonte, M. (2011). Inflation: causes, costs, and current status. Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress. July 26, p.1
28. Law, C. H. & Soon, S. V. (2020). The impact of inflation on income inequality: the role of institutional quality. Applied Economics Letters, 27(21), 1735-1738.
29. Layard, R. (2005). Happiness: Lessons from a New Science. Penguin, 84(6)
30. Mankiw, N. G. (2020). Macroeconomics. Worth Publishers.
31. Mankiw, N. G. (2020). Principles of Economics. Cengage Learning.
32. Massey, D. S., Arango, J., Hugo, G., Kouaouci, A., Pellegrino, A., & Taylor, J. E. (1993). Theories of international migration: A review and appraisal. Population and Development Review, 19(3), 431-466.
33. Milanovic, B. (2016). Global Inequality: A New Approach for the Age of Globalization. Harvard University Press.
34. Monnin, P. (2014). Inflation and income inequality in developed economies. CEP Working Paper Series.
35. OECD. (2011). Divided We Stand: Why Inequality Keeps Rising. OECD Publishing.
36. Özer, İ. (2004), Kentleşme, Kentlileşme Ve Kentsel Değişme, Bursa: Ekim Kitabevi.
37. Peri, G. (2016). Immigrants, Productivity, and Labor Markets. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 30(4), 3-30.
38. Peterson, W. (1958). A general typology of migration. American Sociological Review, 23(3), 256-266.
39. Piketty, T. (2014). Capital in the Twenty-First Century. Harvard University Press.
40. Saez, E., & Zucman, G. (2019). The Triumph of Injustice: How the Rich Dodge Taxes and How to Make Them Pay. W. W. Norton & Company.
41. Saiz, A. (2007). Immigration and Housing Rents in American Cities. Journal of Urban Economics, 61(2), 345-371.
42. Sareya, B., Mansur, K. & Mahmud, R. (2015). Immigration and Employment Rate: A Case Study in Oil Palm Sabah Plantation Sector. Malysian Journal of Business and Economis, 2(1), 45-61.
43. Stiglitz, J. E. (2012). The Price of Inequality: How Today’s Divided Society Endangers Our Future. W. W. Norton & Company.
44. Tilly C. (2011). The Impact of the Economic Crisis on International Migration: A Review. Work, Employment & Society, British Sociological Association, 25(4), 675-692.
45. Uysal, Y. (2007). Gelir dağılımı türleri arasındaki ilişkiler bağlamında gelir dağılımının düzenlenmesine yönelik öneriler. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 9(2), 248-292.
46. Wallerstein, I. (1974). The modern world-system: Capitalist agriculture and the origins of the European world-economy in the sixteenth century. Academic Press.
47. Wilkinson, R., & Pickett, K. (2009). The Spirit Level: Why More Equal Societies Almost Always Do Better. Allen Lane.
48. Williams, A. M., & Baláž, V. (2012). Migration, Risk, and Uncertainty: Theoretical Perspectives. Population, Space and Place, 18(2), 167-180.
49. Yılmaz, A. (2014). Uluslararası göç çeşitleri, nedenleri ve etkileri. Turkish Studies: International Periodical for the Languages, Literature and History of Turkish or Turkic, 9(2), 3-11.