Suriye’deki Çatışmalar ve Ekonomik Kalkınma: Ekonomik Göstergeler Çatışmayı Öngörmeye Yardımcı Olabilir miydi?

Abstract

Bu makale, ekonomik kalkınma göstergeleri üzerinden iki bin on birde Suriye'de başlayan çatışmaların tahmin edilip edilemeyeceğini araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu makale, ekonomik kalkınmanın toplumu istikrara kavuşturmadaki rolünü değerlendirmek için iki bin on birdeki çatışmadan önce Suriye ekonomisinin mevcut tarihsel ekonomik kalkınma göstergelerini analiz etmektedir. Bahsedilen bu göstergelerle ilgili resmi istatistiklerin gözden geçirilmesi ve orta gelirli ülkelerle kıyaslanması, kişi başına düşen gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla (GSYH), hükümet harcamaları, enflasyon oranı, işsizlik oranı ve insani gelişme endeksindeki (IGE) yıllık büyümenin iki bin on birden önce endişe verici seviyelerde olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Sonuç olarak, incelenen bütün bu ekonomik kalkınma göstergeleri çatışmayı öngörmeye yardımcı olmaktadır.

Keywords

• Ekonomik Kalkınma
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Suriye

Syrian Conflict and The Economic Development: Did the Economic Indicators Predict the Conflict?

Abstract

This paper aims at exploring whether the economic development indicators could have predicted the conflict in Syria in 2011. To evaluate the role of economic development in stabilizing the society, this paper analyses the available historical economic development indicators for the Syrian economy before the conflict in 2011. Reviewing the available official statistics about aforementioned indicators and benchmarking them against middle-income countries reveal that the annual growth in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, the government expenditure, inflation rate, unemployment rate, and human development index (HDI) were at alarming levels before 2011. This paves the way to the 2011 conflict in Syria.

Keywords

• Economic Development
• Economic Growth
• Syrıa

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