TÜRKİYE'DE NAKİT TALEBİNİ ETKİLEYEN FAKTÖRLER

Year 2023, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 18 - 32, 30.04.2023

Saygın Çevik , Dilan Teber

https://doi.org/10.53280/jer.1177149

Abstract

Bu çalışmada nakit talebini etkileyen faktörler hem toplamda hem de yüksek, orta ve düşük değerli banknotlar gruplandırması çerçevesinde analiz edilmiştir. Bulgular, gelirdeki artışın nakit talebinde artışa yol açtığını ve orta ve düşük değerli kupürlerin işlem amaçlı kullanımının daha yoğun olduğunu göstermektedir. Reel faizdeki artış nakit talebini düşürürken yüksek değerli banknotların talebinde daha güçlü etkisinin olması bu kupürlerin daha çok değer saklama aracı olarak talep edildiği ile ilişkilendirilmektedir. Bununla birlikte, kartlı harcamaların en çok orta değerli kupürler için ikame etkisi oluşturduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ek olarak, finansal belirsizlikteki artış tüm kupür gruplarında nakit talebini artırırken; döviz kurlarındaki artışın nakit talebini negatif yönde etkilediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Keywords

Emisyon Hacmi, Nakit Talebi, Kupür Dağılımı

THE DETERMINANTS OF CASH DEMAND IN TURKEY

Abstract

In this study, the factors affecting cash demand are analysed in total and within the framework of the high, medium, and low-value banknotes grouping. The findings show that the increase in income leads to an increase in demand for cash and the transactional use of medium and low-value denominations is higher than the high-value banknotes. While the real interest rate increase decreases the demand for cash, the more substantial effect on the demand for high-value banknotes is associated with the use as a store of value of that group. However, it was concluded that card payments mostly had a substitution effect for medium-value denominations. Additionally, while the increase in financial uncertainty increased the demand for cash in all denomination groups, the increase in exchange rates negatively affected the cash demand.

Keywords

Currency in Circulation, Money Demand, Currency Denomination

References

• Akinci, O. (2012). Modeling the demand for currency issued in Turkey. Central Bank Review, 3(1), 1-25.
• Assenmacher, K., Seitz, F., & Tenhofen, J. (2019). The demand for Swiss banknotes: some new evidence. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 155(1), 1-22.
• Baldo, L., Bonifacio, E., Brandi, M., Russo, M. L., Maddaloni, G., Nobili, A., ... & Valentini, M. (2021). Inside the black box: tools for understanding cash circulation (No. 7). Bank of Italy, Directorate General for Markets and Payment System.
• Balli, F., & Elsamadisy, E. M. (2012). Modelling the currency in circulation for the State of Qatar. International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management.
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Rhee, H. J. (1994). Long-run elasticities of the demand for money in Korea: evidence from cointegration analysis. International Economic Journal, 8(2), 83-93.
• Bartzsch, N., & Seitz, F. (2016). Cash holdings in Germany and the demand for “German” banknotes: What role is there for cashless payments? In Transforming payment systems in Europe (pp. 111-148). Palgrave Macmillan, London.
• Briglevics, T., & Schuh, S. D. (2014). US consumer demand for cash in the era of low interest rates and electronic payments, (No. 1660). European Central Bank.
• Cusbert, T., & Rohling, T. (2013). Currency demand during the global financial crisis: Evidence from Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia (Vol. 1). Research Discussion Paper.
• Cox, N. et al. (2020). Initial impacts of the pandemic on consumer behavior: Evidence from linked income, spending, and savings data. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Summer 2020 special edition.
• Çeliköz, Y. S., & Arslan, Ü. (2011). The effects of the interest rate volatility on Turkish money demand. International Business Research, 4(4), 286.
• El Hamiani Khatat, M. (2018). Monetary policy and models of currency demand.
• Figueroa, C., & Pedersen, M. (2017). Forecasting demand for denominations of Chilean coins and banknotes (No. 799). Central Bank of Chile.
• Fischer, B., Köhler, P., & Seitz, F. (2004). The demand for euro area currencies: past, present and future. Present and Future (April 2004).
• Gökçe, A., & Güler, H. (2020). Determinants Of household currency demand in Turkey. International Social Sciences Studies Journal, 6 (55), 374-391.
• Hensch, J. L. (2019). A new model for money demand in Denmark: Money demand in a negative interest rate environment (No. 136). Danmarks Nationalbank Working Papers.
• Ivanovski, K., & Churchill, S. A. (2019). Economic policy uncertainty and demand for money in Australia. Applied Economics, 51(41), 4516-4526.
• Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of employment, interest, and money, New York.
• Korap, L. (2008). Modeling Turkish M2 broad money demand: a portfolio-based approach using implications for monetary policy. University Library of Munich, Germany.
• Kulatunge, S. (2019). Modeling and forecasting currency demand in Sri Lanka: An empirical study. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 10(6), 62-73.
• Nachane, D. M., Chakraborty, A. B., Mitra, A. K., & Bordoloi, S. (2013). Modelling currency demand in India: An empirical study. Reserve Bank of India Discussion Paper, 39.
• Nchor, D., & Adamec, V. (2016). Investigating the stability of money demand in Ghana. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 220, 288-293.
• Rösl, G., & Seitz, F. (2021). Cash and Crises: No surprises by the virus (No. 150). IMFS Working Paper Series.
• Rua, A. (2018). Modelling currency demand in a small open economy within a monetary union. Economic Modelling, 74, 88-96.
• Rua, A. (2021). Modelling currency demand: the case of the euro. Empirical Economics, 61(4), 1865-1881.
• Sahadudheen, I. (2011). Demand for money and exchange rate: Evidence for wealth effect in India. Undergraduate Economic Review, 8(1), 1-15.
• Sahinoz, S., & Cosar, E. E. (2020). Quantifying uncertainty and identifying its impacts on the Turkish economy. Empirica, 47(2), 365-387.
• Shirai, S., & Sugandi, E. A. (2019). What explains the growing global demand for cash? (No. 1006). ADBI Working Paper Series.