Modeling renewable energy integration for Nigeria’s 2030 electricity target using EnergyPLAN

Abstract

Nigeria struggles to meet its energy needs due to old infrastructure, poor grid management, frequent power outages, and other reasons, despite its rich fossil fuel reserves. The integration of renewables such as solar, wind, and hydro energy sources is a major solution. Renewables can assist Nigeria in diversifying its energy mix, reducing fossil fuel use, and improving electricity availability, especially in off-grid rural areas. Renewable energy reduces the electricity gap and helps the government meet its environmental and economic goals. This work uses EnergyPLAN to model the integration of wind, solar, hydro, and biomass technologies with natural gas-fired power plants to fulfill the 2030 goal of 30 GW with 30% renewable energy. Nine scenarios were created to fulfill the goal. The analysis shows that the natural gas-fired power plant with hydropower generates the highest electricity from RES with 26.5%. The lowest overall investment cost and annual cost are 18.4 billion dollars and 2.47 billion dollars for a natural gas-fired power plant and a solar PV facility, respectively. Scenario 9 has the integration of NG with solar PV, wind, hydropower, and biomass, emerged as the optimal scenario, yielding the lowest CO₂ emissions (8.97 Mt CO₂/yr), a 26.4 % RES share, and an estimated payback period of 3 years. Its total investment cost (32.9 B USD) and annual cost (4.36 B USD), provide both environmental and economic advantages. This study shows how to reach Nigeria's 2030 electricity targets.

Keywords

• Electricity
• Energy sources
• Renewable
• Vision 30-30-30

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