Changes and trends of seasonal total rainfall in the province of Istanbul, Turkey

Abstract

Changes and trends of seasonal total rainfall in the province of Istanbul, Turkey

Abstract: Several studies revealed that climate change can affect local and regional precipitation patterns. Long term trends and cycles in precipitation is important for the health of ecosystems in the region. The possible impacts in near future can affect the forest and water resources of Istanbul.  In this study, daily, monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation analyses for the different meteorology stations were examined for the İstanbul province. Northern and southern different climatic conditions of İstanbul have been effective selection of the station. The Mann-Kendall test results showed that there is positive statistically significant trend in some meteorology stations. According to Mann-Kendall results the increased fall precipitation trend were found in Florya, Kireçburnu ve Kumköy meteorology stations and decreased summer precipitation trend were found in Göztepe meteorology stations

Keywords: Mann-Kendall trend analysis, precipitation time series, the regional precipitation reactions analysis, climate change

İstanbul ilinde mevsimsel toplam yağışların değişimleri ve eğilimleri

Özet: İklim değişikliğinin bölgesel ve yöresel ölçekte yağış rejimi üzerinde etkileri olabileceği birçok araştırma ile ortaya konulmuştur. Yağış serilerindeki uzun dönemli yönelimler ve döngüler yöredeki ekosistemlerin sağlığı ve geleceği açısından büyük önem arzetmektedir. İstanbul ilinde önümüzdeki dönemde gerçekleşebilecek etkiler ise hem su kaynakları hem de ormanlar üzerinde önemli sonuçlar ortaya çıkarabilir. Bu çalışmada İstanbul iline ait farklı meteoroloji istasyonlarının uzun dönemli mevsimlik verileri araştırılmıştır. Çalışmadaki amacımız ileriye dönük tahminlerdeki belirsizlikleri belli oranda ortadan kaldırabilecek geçmişe dönük veriler yardımıyla istatistiksel analizleri gerçekleştirmektir. İstasyon seçiminde İstanbul’un kırsal ve kentsel bölgelerindeki farklı iklim koşulları etkili olmuştur.  Mann-Kendall testi sonuçlarına göre Florya, Kireçburnu ve Kumköy Meteoroloji Istasyonları’nda seçilen sonbahar mevsimi yağışlarında, Göztepe Meteoroloji Istasyonu’nda ise yaz mevsimi yağışlarında istatistiksel anlamda artan bir trend bulunmuştur.

Anahtar kelimeler: Mann-Kendall trend analizi, yağış zaman serileri, iklim değişikliği

Received (Geliş): 10.02.2016 - Revised (Düzeltme): 05.05.2016 -   Accepted (Kabul): 24.05.2016

Cite (Atıf): Yurtseven, I., Serengil, Y., 2017. Changes and trends of seasonal total rainfall in the province of Istanbul, Turkey. Journal of the Faculty of Forestry Istanbul University 67(1): 1-12. DOI: 10.17099/jffiu.30673

İstanbul ilinde mevsimsel toplam yağışların değişimleri ve eğilimleri

Abstract

Changes and trends of seasonal total rainfall in the province of Istanbul, Turkey

Abstract: Several studies revealed that climate change can affect local and regional precipitation patterns. Long term trends and cycles in precipitation is important for the health of ecosystems in the region. The possible impacts in near future can affect the forest and water resources of Istanbul.  In this study, daily, monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation analyses for the different meteorology stations were examined for the İstanbul province. Northern and southern different climatic conditions of İstanbul have been effective selection of the station. The Mann-Kendall test results showed that there is positive statistically significant trend in some meteorology stations. According to Mann-Kendall results the increased fall precipitation trend were found in Florya, Kireçburnu ve Kumköy meteorology stations and decreased summer precipitation trend were found in Göztepe meteorology stations

Keywords: Mann-Kendall trend analysis, precipitation time series, the regional precipitation reactions analysis, climate change

İstanbul ilinde mevsimsel toplam yağışların değişimleri ve eğilimleri

Özet: İklim değişikliğinin bölgesel ve yöresel ölçekte yağış rejimi üzerinde etkileri olabileceği birçok araştırma ile ortaya konulmuştur. Yağış serilerindeki uzun dönemli yönelimler ve döngüler yöredeki ekosistemlerin sağlığı ve geleceği açısından büyük önem arzetmektedir. İstanbul ilinde önümüzdeki dönemde gerçekleşebilecek etkiler ise hem su kaynakları hem de ormanlar üzerinde önemli sonuçlar ortaya çıkarabilir. Bu çalışmada İstanbul iline ait farklı meteoroloji istasyonlarının uzun dönemli mevsimlik verileri araştırılmıştır. Çalışmadaki amacımız ileriye dönük tahminlerdeki belirsizlikleri belli oranda ortadan kaldırabilecek geçmişe dönük veriler yardımıyla istatistiksel analizleri gerçekleştirmektir. İstasyon seçiminde İstanbul’un kırsal ve kentsel bölgelerindeki farklı iklim koşulları etkili olmuştur.  Mann-Kendall testi sonuçlarına göre Florya, Kireçburnu ve Kumköy Meteoroloji Istasyonları’nda seçilen sonbahar mevsimi yağışlarında, Göztepe Meteoroloji Istasyonu’nda ise yaz mevsimi yağışlarında istatistiksel anlamda artan bir trend bulunmuştur.

Anahtar kelimeler: Mann-Kendall trend analizi, yağış zaman serileri, iklim değişikliği

Received (Geliş): 10.02.2016 - Revised (Düzeltme): 05.05.2016 -   Accepted (Kabul): 24.05.2016

Cite (Atıf): Yurtseven, I., Serengil, Y., 2017. Changes and trends of seasonal total rainfall in the province of Istanbul, Turkey. Journal of the Faculty of Forestry Istanbul University 67(1): 1-12. DOI: 10.17099/jffiu.30673

References

1. Atalay. I., 2010. Applied Climatology. Meta Publication. Izmir (in Turkish).
2. Balci, N., 1996. Soil Conservation. Istanbul University Publishing Center, Istanbul (in Turkish).
3. Browning, K.A., 1964. Airflow and precipitation trajectories within severe local storms which travel to the right of the winds. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 21(6): 634-639.
4. Chinchorkar, S.S., Sayyad, F. G., Vaidya, V. B., Pandye, V., 2015. Trend detection in annual maximum temperature and precipitation using the Mann Kendall test–A case study to assess climate change on Anand of central Gujarat. Mausam 66(1): 1-6.
5. Colasan, U.E., 1960. The Climate of Turkey. TC Ziraat Bank Printing House (in Turkish).
6. MEU, 2016. Sixth National Communication of Turkey. Rebuplic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization, Directorate General of Environmental Management. AFS Media, Ankara (in Turkish).
7. Demircan, M., Demir, O., Atay, H., Eskioglu, O., Tuvan, A., Akcakaya. A., 2014. Climate change projections for Turkey with new scenarios. The Climate Change and Climate Dynamics Conference-2014–CCCD2014. Istanbul. 8–10 September 2014. pp. 8-10.
8. Efe, B., Toros, H., Deniz, A., 2015. Temperature and Precipitation Trends for Turkey. 7th Atmospheric Sciences Symposium, Istanbul, 28-30 April 2015, pp. 791-800.

9. Erinc, S., 1957. Applied Climatology and Climate of Turkey. ITU Institute of Hydrogeology, Istanbul (in Turkish).
10. Feddema, J.J., Oleson, K.W., Bonan, G.B., Mearns, L.O., Buja, L.E., Meehl, G.A., Washington, W.M., 2005. The importance of land-cover change in simulating future climates. Science 310(5754): 1674-1678.
11. Firat, M., Dikbas, F., Koc, A. C., Gungor, M., 2012. Analysis of temperature series: estimation of missing data and homogeneity test. Meteorological Applications 19(4): 397-406.
12. Gemmer, M., Becker, S., Jiang, T., 2004. Observed monthly precipitation trends in China 1951–2002. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 77(1-2): 39-45.
13. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2000. Land use, land-use change and forestry. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.
14. Ikiel, C., 2005. Rainfall Regime Regions in Turkey (A Statistical Climate Study). Forest Impact on Hydrological Process and Soil Erosion. October 2005, Yundola, Bulgaria.
15. Kalnay, E., Cai, M., 2003. Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate. Nature 423(6939): 528-531.
16. Kızılelma, Y., Celik, M. A., Karabulut, M., 2015. Trend analyses of temperature and precipitations in Central Anatolia. Turkish Geographical Review 64: 1-10 (in Turkish).
17. Kocman, A., 1993. The Climate of Turkey. Ege University, Faculty of Literature Publications, No. 72 (in Turkish).
18. Komuscu, A.U., Celik, S., Ceylan, A., 2011. Rainfall analysis of the flood event that occurred in Marmara Region on 8-12 September 2009. Turkish Journal of Geographical Sciences 9(2): 209-220 (in Turkish).
19. Meinshausen, M., Meinshausen, N., Hare, W., Raper, S.C., Frieler, K., Knutti, R., Frame, D.J., Allen, M.R., 2009. Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 C. Nature 458(7242): 1158-1162.
20. Olgen, M.K., 2010. Spatial distribution of annual and seasonal rainfall variability over Turkey. Aegean Geographical Journal 19(1): 85-95 (in Turkish).
21. Pettitt, A.N., 1979, A non-parametric approach to the change-point detection. Applied Statistics 28: 126-135.
22. Pielke, R.A., 2005. Land use and climate change. Science 310(5754): 1625-1626.
23. Rustad, L.E., Huntington, T.G., Boone, R.D., 2000. Controls on soil respiration: implications for climate change. Biogeochemistry 48(1): 1-6.
24. Serrano, A., Mateos, V.L., Garcia, J.A., 1999. Trend analysis of monthly precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula for the period 1921–1995. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Part B: Hydrology. Oceans and Atmosphere 24(1): 85-90.
25. Sneyers, R., 1990. On The Statistical Analysis of Series of Observations. WMO Technical Note 143. p. 192. Genova.
26. Sutgibi, S., 2015. Variations and trends in temperature, precipitation and stream-flow series in the Buyuk Menderes River Basin. Marmara Geographical Journal (31): 398-414 (in Turkish).
27. Swed, F.S., Eisenhart, C., 1943. Tables for testing randomness of grouping in a sequence of alternatives. Annals of Mathematical Statistics (14): 66-87.
28. Temucin, E., 1990. According to monthly rate of change the types of precipitation regimes in Turkey. Aegean Geographical Journal 5(1): 160-183 (in Turkey).
29. Toros, H., 2012. Spatio‐temporal variation of daily extreme temperatures over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology 32(7): 1047-1055.
30. Turkes, M., 2012. Observed and projected climate change, drought and desertification in Turkey. Ankara University Journal of Environmental Sciences 4(2): 1-32 (in Turkish).
31. Van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G.C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S.J., Rose, S.K., 2011. The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change 109: 5-31.
32. Van Vuuren, D.P., Stehfest, E., den Elzen, M.G., Kram, T., van Vliet, J., Deetman, S., Isaac, M., Goldewijk, K.K., Hof, A., Beltran, A.M., Oostenrijk, R., van Ruijven, B., 2011. RCP2. 6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2 C. Climatic Change 109(1-2): 95-116.
33. Wentz, F.J., Ricciardulli, L., Hilburn, K., Mears, C., 2007. How much more rain will global warming bring? Science 317(5835): 233-235.
34. Yuzer, M.A., Yuzer, A.S., 2014. Changes in land-use preferences of small-medium- and large-scale industries located in metropolitan areas (Case study in Istanbul). European Planning Studies 22(6): 1127-1142.
35. Zhang, X., Vincent, L.A., Hogg, W.D., Niitsoo, A., 2000. Temperature and precipitation trends in Canada during the 20th century. Atmosphere-Ocean 38(3): 395-429.
36. Zhang, X., Zwiers, F.W., 2004. Comment on “Applicability of prewhitening to eliminate the influence of serial correlation on the Mann‐Kendall test” by Sheng Yue and Chun Yuan Wang. Water Resources Research 40(3): 1-5.