Estimating of Health Services Expenditures within the Framework of Public Financial Management Using ARIMA Method

Abstract

This study aims to estimate and evaluate the trends in public health expenditures and total expenditures within the scope of public financial management. The study employs the ARIMA model, a time series method, using monthly data spanning 202 periods from January 2006 to October 2022. The estimated period extends from November 2022 to December 2024. The findings reveal a notable upward trend in both public health expenditures and total expenditures. Projections indicate that public health services expenditures are estimated to be approximately TL 251 billion in 2024, with total expenditures reaching approximately TL 3.98 trillion. By emphasizing a strong linkage between policy, planning, and budgeting, the study draws inferences to enhance the potential for effective and efficient resource utilization. In this context, the study underscores the importance of a strategic framework for the effective utilization of public resources. The results of this study, shedding light on decision-makers in public expenditure management, can provide valuable insights for future planning and policy considerations.

Keywords

• ARIMA model
• Public Financial Management
• Health Expenditures
• Health Services
• Time Series

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