Butterfly Effect of Natural Disasters on the Economy: The Case of the 2011 Van Earthquake

The original article was published on April 30, 2025. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/jihsam/article/1666860

Erratum Note

In line with the author's request, the surname misspelled during the layout process was corrected and published.

Abstract

Natural disasters and earthquakes cause unexpected events and changes in the social and economic lives of societies. The two earthquakes that occurred consecutively in 2011 in Van affected the social and economic life of the province. The objective of this study is to define the changes in the economy of the province after the earthquakes and to explain the unexpected changes by the concept of The Butterfly Effect. This study is data analysis research. The study explores the changes after the 2011 earthquakes over the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data between 2005 and 2017 of the Van province. Although a drop in the economic size of Van occurred because of the earthquakes, the following four years showed an unexpected growth of 3.6 times. While the research on this field notes that the effects of natural disasters may be negative or positive, our study consist an example that natural disasters may trigger a positive Butterfly Effect on the economy of a city.

Keywords

• Chaos Theory
• Butterfly Effect
• Earthquake
• Economy
• Van

Doğal Afetlerin Ekonomi Üzerindeki Kelebek Etkisi: 2011 Van Depremi Örneği

The original article was published on April 30, 2025. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/jihsam/article/1666860

Abstract

Doğal afetler ve depremler toplumların sosyal ve ekonomik yaşamlarında beklenmeyen olaylara ve değişikliklere neden olur. 2011 yılında Van'da üst üste meydana gelen iki deprem, ilin sosyal ve ekonomik yaşamını etkilemiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, depremler sonrasında ilin ekonomisinde meydana gelen değişimleri tanımlamak ve doğal afetlerin bir şehrin ekonomisi üzerinde olumlu Kelebek Etkisini tetikleyebileceğini göstermektir. Bu çalışma bir veri analizi araştırmasıdır. Çalışma, 2011 depremlerinden sonra Van ilinin Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYİH) verilerinde 2005-2017 yılları arasındaki değişiklikleri incelemektedir. Van'ın ekonomik büyüklüğünde depremler nedeniyle bir düşüş yaşanmış olsa da, sonraki dört yılda 3,6 katlık beklenmedik bir büyüme görülmüştür. Bu alandaki araştırmalar, doğal afetlerin etkilerinin olumlu veya olumsuz olabileceğini belirtirken, çalışmamız doğal afetlerin bir şehrin ekonomisinde olumlu bir Kelebek Etkisi tetikleyebileceğine dair bir örnek oluşturmaktadır.

Keywords

• Kaos Teorisi
• Kelebek Etkisi
• Deprem
• Ekonomi
• Van

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