THE PATH TO WAR: UKRAINE’S NATO MEMBERSHIP

Abstract

The Russia-Ukraine War shocked Europe and led to radical transformations in its security architecture. This article aims to understand the dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict since the 2008 NATO Bucharest Summit. Ten Ukraine's white papers for the period 2007-2021 and three Russia's national security strategy documents were examined, as well as the changes in the international structure, the threat perceptions of the warring party, and the effects of the leader changes on the war. Following the end of the Cold War, Russia acted suspiciously towards the NATO and its unilateral expansion eastward. Russia and Ukraine’s military capabilities are incomparably different. It is concluded that NATO, the USA, the changing international structure, and the different priorities of leadership in Ukraine are the main factors of the war. It is understood that the 2008 NATO Bucharest Summit, which gave green light to NATO's membership in Ukraine, was an important turning point on the road to the Ukraine War. In conclusion, the approaching Russia-Ukraine War was foreseen in the examined Russian and Ukrainian documents. Although it has been stated in Ukraine’s White Papers that its NATO membership is indispensable for its security and that a possible large-scale military action by Russia is expected, NATO has not taken any concrete steps in this regard.

Keywords

• neorealism
• neoclassical realism
• balance of threat
• Russia-Ukraine War
• white paper

THE PATH TO WAR: UKRAINE’S NATO MEMBERSHIP

Abstract

Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı Avrupa'yı sarstı ve Avrupa güvenlik mimarisinde köklü dönüşümlere yol açtı. Bu makalede, 2008 NATO Bükreş Zirvesi'nden savaşın çıkmasına kadar Rusya-Ukrayna çatışmasının dinamiklerinin anlaşılması amaçlanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Ukrayna'nın 2007-2021 dönemine ilişkin on beyaz kitabı ve Rusya'nın üç ulusal güvenlik strateji belgesinin yanı sıra uluslararası yapıdaki değişimler, savaşan tarafın tehdit algılamaları ve lider değişikliklerinin etkileri irdelenmektedir. Soğuk Savaş'ın sona ermesinin ardından Rusya, NATO'ya ve onun doğuya doğru tek taraflı genişlemesine şüpheyle yaklaştı. Rusya ve Ukrayna'nın askeri yetenekleri kıyaslanamayacak kadar farklıdır. NATO, ABD, değişen uluslararası yapı ile Ukrayna’daki liderliğin farklı önceliklerinin savaşın ana etkenleri olduğu anlaşılmaktadır. Ukrayna'nın NATO üyeliğine yeşil ışık yakan 2008 NATO Bükreş Zirvesi'nin Ukrayna Savaşı'na giden yolda önemli bir dönüm noktası olduğu anlaşılmaktadır. Sonuç olarak, incelenen Rus ve Ukrayna belgelerinde yaklaşan Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı öngörülmüştür. Ukrayna'nın Beyaz Kitaplarında NATO üyeliğinin güvenliği için vazgeçilmez olduğu ve Rusya'dan olası geniş çaplı bir askeri harekatın beklendiği belirtilmesine rağmen, NATO bu konuda somut bir adım atmamıştır.

Keywords

• neorealizm
• neoklasik realizm
• tehdit dengesi
• Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı
• beyaz kitap

References

1. Antczak, Anna. (2018). Russia’s Strategic Culture: Prisoner of Imperial History? Athenaeum, 60, 223–242.
2. Askew, Joshua. (2022, November 29). NATO meets to talk Ukraine at scene of one of its most controversial decisions. Euronews. https://www.euronews.com/2022/11/29/nato- meets-to-talk-ukraine-at-scene-of-one-of-its-most-controversial-decisions
3. Ayres, Sabra. (2014, May 29). Why are Ukraine’s armed forces so ineffective? The Christian Science Monitor. https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2014/0529/Why-are- Ukraine-s-armed-forces-so-ineffective
4. Bowen, Glenn. (2009). Document Analysis as a Qualitative Research Method. Qualitative Research Journal, 9, 27-40.
5. Calleo, D. P. (2009). How to Govern a Multipolar World. Current History, 108(721), 361– 367.
6. Cook, Lorne and McGrath, Stephen. (2022, November 28).14 years later, NATO is set to renew its vow to Ukraine.
7. Apnews. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin- nato-europe-bucharest-1b3564af002c8e879c304a6a85bf1f97
8. Erlanger, Steven and Myers, Steven Lee. (2008, April 3). NATO Allies Oppose Bush on Georgia and Ukraine. New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/03/world/europe/03nato.html

9. Hermann, Margaret G. and Hagan, Joe D. (1998). International Decision Making: Leadership Matters. Foreign Policy, 110, 124–137.
10. Litera, B. (1994). The Kozyrev Doctrine - a Russian Variation on the Monroe Doctrine. Perspectives, 4, 45–52.
11. Mearsheimer, J. J. (1994). The False Promise of International Institutions. International Security, 19(3), 5–49.
12. Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (2008). 2007 White Paper. https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/155178/Ukraine%20white%20book%202007.pdf
13. Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (2010). 2009 White Paper. https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/155181/Ukraine%20White%20Book%202009.pdf
14. Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (2011). 2010 White Paper. https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/156823/Book_WP_2010_eng.pdf
15. Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (2012). 2011 White Paper. https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/167335/WB_Eng_final_2011.pdf
16. Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. (2015). 2014 White Paper. https://www.mil.gov.ua/content/files/whitebook/WB_2014_eng.pdf
17. Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. (2016). 2015 White Paper. https://www.mil.gov.ua/content/files/whitebook/WB_2015_eng_WEB.PDF
18. Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. (2018). 2017 White Paper. https://www.mil.gov.ua/content/files/whitebook/WB-2017_eng_Final_WEB.pdf
19. Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. (2019). 2018 White Paper. https://www.mil.gov.ua/content/files/whitebook/WB_2018_eng.pdf
20. Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. (2021). 2019-20 White Paper. https://www.mil.gov.ua/content/files/whitebook/WB_2019_2020_eng.pdf
21. Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. (2022). 2021 White Paper. https://www.mil.gov.ua/content/files/whitebook/WhiteBook_2021_Defens_policy_of_ Ukraine.pdf
22. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine. (2014,25 March). Joint Statement by the United States and Ukraine. https://web.archive.org/web/20140419014331/http://mfa.gov.ua/en/news- feeds/foreign-offices-news/20572-spilyna-zajava-ukrajini-ta-spoluchenih-shtativ- ameriki
23. Munich Security Conference. (2007). A Speech Delivered at the MSC 2007 by the President Vladimir Putin. https://is.muni.cz/th/xlghl/DP_Fillinger_Speeches.pdf
24. NATO. (2008, April 03). Bucharest Summit Declaration. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_8443.htm
25. NTV. (2022, February 08). Putin: Ukrayna NATO’ya katılırsa Avrupa ülkeleri çatışmanın içine çekilecek. NTV. https://www.ntv.com.tr/dunya/son-dakika-haberiputin- ukrayna-natoya-katilirsa-avrupa-ulkeleri-catismanin-icine- cekilecek,RkMeh4_NsEWMa1Vw_L3eQg
26. Presidency of Russia. (2009). National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation to 2020. http://kremlin.ru/supplement/424
27. Presidency of Russia (2014). Meeting of the Valdai International Discussion. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46860
28. Presidency of Russia. (2015). The National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation. https://www.russiamatters.org/node/21421
29. Presidency of Russia. (2021). The National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation. http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202107030001
30. Presidency of Russia (2021, December 21). Expanded meeting of the Collegium of the Ministry of Defense. http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67402
31. Ratti, Luca. (2006). Post-cold war NATO and international relations theory: The case for neo-classical realism. Journal of Transatlantic Studies, 4(1), 81-110.
32. Reuters. (1992, October 02). THE 1992 CAMPAIGN; Excerpts from Speech by Clinton on U.S. Role. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/1992/10/02/us/the-1992- campaign-excerpts-from-speech-by-clinton-on-us-role.html
33. Rose, Gideon. (1998). Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy. World Politics, 51(1), 144-172.
34. Russian Foreign Ministry. (2008, 12 July). The Foreign Policy Concept of The Russian Federation. https://russiaeu.ru/userfiles/file/foreign_policy_concept_english.pdf
35. Russian Foreign Ministry.(2013). The Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation 2013. https://www.voltairenet.org/article202037.html
36. Russian Foreign Ministry. (2016). Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation. https://interkomitet.com/foreign-policy/basic-documents/foreign-policy-concept-of-the-russian-federation-approved-by-president-of-the-russian-federation-vladimir-putin-on-november-30-2016/
37. Taliaferro, Jeffrey W. (2000). Security Seeking under Anarchy: Defensive Realism Revisited. International Security, 25, no. 3 (2000), 128–61.
38. Talukdar, Indrani. (2017). Russia's New Foreign Policy 2016. Indian Council of World Affairs, https://www.icwa.in/show_content.php?lang=1&level=3&ls_id=577&lid=519
39. The Japan Times. (2022, November 29). As NATO leaders meet, Ukraine waits on 14-year- old membership pledge. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/11/29/world/ukraine-nato-meeting/
40. The World Bank. (2022). Military Expenditure. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.TOTL.P1?end=2020&locations=UA&st art=2007
41. Troianovski, Anton, Cohen, Roger and Rogers, Katie. (2022, February 07). Putin Warns the West and Ukraine, but Keeps His Intentions a Mystery. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/07/world/europe/putin-macron-russia-france- ukraine.html
42. U.S. Department of Defense. (2018). The National Defense Strategy of United States of America. https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018-National-Defense-Strategy- Summary.pdf
43. Walt, S. M. (1985). Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Power. International Security, 9(4), 3–43.
44. Walt, Stephen M. (1991). The Renaissance of Security Studies. International Studies Quarterly, 35(2), 211-239.
45. Waltz, Kenneth N. (1967). Foreign Policy and Democratic Politics: The American and British Experience. Boston: Little, Brown.
46. Waltz, Kenneth N. (1979). Theory of International Politics. New York: McGraw Hill.