THE PATH TO WAR: UKRAINE’S NATO MEMBERSHIP

Öz

The Russia-Ukraine War shocked Europe and led to radical transformations in its security architecture. This article aims to understand the dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict since the 2008 NATO Bucharest Summit. Ten Ukraine's white papers for the period 2007-2021 and three Russia's national security strategy documents were examined, as well as the changes in the international structure, the threat perceptions of the warring party, and the effects of the leader changes on the war. Following the end of the Cold War, Russia acted suspiciously towards the NATO and its unilateral expansion eastward. Russia and Ukraine’s military capabilities are incomparably different. It is concluded that NATO, the USA, the changing international structure, and the different priorities of leadership in Ukraine are the main factors of the war. It is understood that the 2008 NATO Bucharest Summit, which gave green light to NATO's membership in Ukraine, was an important turning point on the road to the Ukraine War. In conclusion, the approaching Russia-Ukraine War was foreseen in the examined Russian and Ukrainian documents. Although it has been stated in Ukraine’s White Papers that its NATO membership is indispensable for its security and that a possible large-scale military action by Russia is expected, NATO has not taken any concrete steps in this regard.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• neorealism
• neoclassical realism
• balance of threat
• Russia-Ukraine War
• white paper

THE PATH TO WAR: UKRAINE’S NATO MEMBERSHIP

Öz

Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı Avrupa'yı sarstı ve Avrupa güvenlik mimarisinde köklü dönüşümlere yol açtı. Bu makalede, 2008 NATO Bükreş Zirvesi'nden savaşın çıkmasına kadar Rusya-Ukrayna çatışmasının dinamiklerinin anlaşılması amaçlanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Ukrayna'nın 2007-2021 dönemine ilişkin on beyaz kitabı ve Rusya'nın üç ulusal güvenlik strateji belgesinin yanı sıra uluslararası yapıdaki değişimler, savaşan tarafın tehdit algılamaları ve lider değişikliklerinin etkileri irdelenmektedir. Soğuk Savaş'ın sona ermesinin ardından Rusya, NATO'ya ve onun doğuya doğru tek taraflı genişlemesine şüpheyle yaklaştı. Rusya ve Ukrayna'nın askeri yetenekleri kıyaslanamayacak kadar farklıdır. NATO, ABD, değişen uluslararası yapı ile Ukrayna’daki liderliğin farklı önceliklerinin savaşın ana etkenleri olduğu anlaşılmaktadır. Ukrayna'nın NATO üyeliğine yeşil ışık yakan 2008 NATO Bükreş Zirvesi'nin Ukrayna Savaşı'na giden yolda önemli bir dönüm noktası olduğu anlaşılmaktadır. Sonuç olarak, incelenen Rus ve Ukrayna belgelerinde yaklaşan Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı öngörülmüştür. Ukrayna'nın Beyaz Kitaplarında NATO üyeliğinin güvenliği için vazgeçilmez olduğu ve Rusya'dan olası geniş çaplı bir askeri harekatın beklendiği belirtilmesine rağmen, NATO bu konuda somut bir adım atmamıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• neorealizm
• neoklasik realizm
• tehdit dengesi
• Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı
• beyaz kitap

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