Çin’in Balkanlardaki Yükselen Yapısal Gücü: Politikalar, Etkiler ve Bölgesel Denge Arayışları

Year 2023, , 91 - 100, 29.12.2023

Muharrem Bayrak , Fevzi Kırbaşoğlu

https://doi.org/10.5152/JIRS.2023.23021

Abstract

Çalışmanın temel amacı, Çin’in Balkanlar’daki ekonomik ve siyasi varlığının nedenlerini ve olası sonuçlarını Avrupa Birliği perspektifinden incelemektir. Bunu yaparken yapısal güç yaklaşımından faydalanılmaktadır. Çalışma, 2000’li yılların başından 2019’a kadar Çin-Balkan ilişkilerini kapsamaktadır. Çalışma kapsamında öncelikle yapısal güç kavramı teorik olarak incelenmektedir. Çalışmanın devamında, söz konusu dönemde Çin’in bölgede kullandığı politika araçları ve yürüttüğü yatırım projeleri irdelenmektedir. Bunların sonucunda ortaya çıkan asimetrik ilişki modeli ve bağımlılık ilişkisinin analizi yapılmaktadır. Ayrıca Avrupa Birliği’nin Çin’i dengeleme çabalarına da değinilmektedir. Bu bağlamda, 2008 ekonomik krizinden sonra, Avrupa Birliği’nin Balkanlara sağladığı mali destekte azalma olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Avrupa Birliği’nin mali destekteki azalışına karşılık, Çin bu dönemde 17+1 Platformu ve Kuşak Yol Girişimi gibi iş birliği mekanizmaları oluşturarak Balkanlardaki politik ve ekonomik varlığını kurumsal hale getirmeye başlamıştır. 2008 sonrası süreçte Çin, bölge ülkelerine 17 milyar doları aşan yatırım taahhüdünde bulunmuştur. Çin sermayesi öncelikle altyapı, ulaştırma, enerji ve imalat sektörlerine yatırım yapmaya başlamıştır.
Bu sektörlere yönelik sermaye akışı sonucunda Çin, bölge ekonomisinde önemli bir yapısal güce sahip olmuştur. Ancak Çin ile imzalanan anlaşmalardaki belirsiz borçlanma koşulları ve Çin firmaları lehine hükümler tartışmalara yol açmıştır. Bazı Balkan ülkelerinin Çin’e karşı artan borç yükü, egemenlik kaybı endişelerine neden olmuştur. Bu noktada, AB’nin Çin’i sistematik bir rakip olarak değerlendirmeye başlaması ve yatırımlarını incelemesi dikkate değer bir gelişme kapsamında nitelendirilmiştir. Avrupa Birliği için asıl zorlu süreç, Balkanlardaki varlığını yeniden tesis etme çabasında yaşanmıştır. Sonuç olarak, Çin’in Balkanlardaki yapısal gücü ve etkisinin zaman içinde arttığını söyleyebilmek mümkündür. Bununla birlikte, Çin’in finansman modelinin sahip olacağı muhtemel riskler de göz ardı edilmemelidir. Aynı zamanda Avrupa Birliği, Balkanlardaki konumunu güçlendirmek amacıyla zamanın ruhuna uygun politikalar geliştirmelidir. Avrupa Birliği’nin bölgedeki rolünü yeniden perçinlemesi önem taşımaktadır.

Keywords

Çin, Avrupa Birliği, Yapısal Güç, 17+1 Platformu, Kuşak ve Yol İnisiyatifi

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