Nispi Fiyatlarla Genişletilmiş Frenkel-Bilson Parasal Döviz Kuru Modelinin Türkiye’de Geçerliliği

Year 2015, Volume: 6 Issue: 1, 1 - 24, 01.12.2015

Ahmet Güney

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Nispi fiyatlarla genişletilmiş Frenkel-Bilson modelini Türkiye ekonomisinin 1990:01-2014:03 dönemi USD/TL döviz kuru hareketleri için test etmektedir. Çalışma; denge reel döviz kuru değişimlerine izin veren bir parasal modeli, zamana göre değişen parametreler yöntemi (Kalman Filitre) ile test etmesi açısından önemli görülmektedir. Çalışma, modelin Türkiye'de döviz kuru hareketlerini açıklama gücüne sahip olduğunu ve katsayıların dönem boyunca değişkenlik gösterdiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

Frenkel-Bilson Parasal Modeli, Döviz Kuru Belirleyicileri, Kalman Filitre, Zaman Değişkenli Parametreler Yöntemi

Does Frenkel-Bilson Monetary Exchange Model Augmented with Relative Prices Hold in Turkey

Abstract

This study tests the Frenkel-Bilson Model Augmented with Relative Price for USD/TL exchange rate movements in Turkish economy between 1990:01 and 2014:03. The study is important because it tests a monetary model that allows the equilibrium real exchange rate movements, with time varying parameter method (Kalman Filter). The study shows that the model has the power to explain the exchange rate movements in Turkey and the coefficients vary throughout the period.

Keywords

Frenkel-Bilson Monetary Model, Exchange Rate Determination, Kalman Filter, Time-Varying Parameter Method

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