İhracat Çeşitlendirmesi Büyüme Oynaklığını Etkiler mi? Ampirik Bir Analiz

Year 2019, Volume: 10 Issue: 2, 113 - 135, 30.11.2019

Barbaros Guneri

Abstract

Bu çalışma, güncel literatürü izleyerek, teorik
bağlantıları tartışarak ve ampirik bir analiz uygulayarak, ihracat
çeşitlendirmesi ve büyüme oynaklığı arasındaki ilişkiyi analiz etmektedir.
Farklı ihracat çeşitliliği endeksleri, çok sayıda ülke, çeşitli kontrol
değişkenleri ve dinamik panel veri metodolojisi kullanan ampirik model,
çeşitlendirmenin oynaklık üzerindeki etkileri konusunda güçlü kanıtlar
sunmaktadır. Sonuçlar göstermektedir ki, ihracat sepetleri çeşitli olan
ülkeler, daha düşük büyüme oynaklığına maruz kalmaktadır. Çeşitlilik endeksleri
acısından, yoğun ticaret (daha dengeli ihracat sepeti) oynaklık üzerinde yaygın
ticaret’e (ihraç yapan firma sayısı) göre daha etkilidir.

Keywords

Büyüme Oynaklığı, İhracat Çeşitlendirmesi

Does Export Diversification Lower Growth Volatility? An Empirical Analysis

Abstract

This
paper, following the recent literature, discussing about the theoretical
connections, and applying an empirical analysis, studies the relationship
between export diversification and growth volatility. Using several export
diversification indices, a large number of countries, various control variables
and dynamic panel data methodology, the empirical model present strong evidence
on the effects of diversification on volatility. The results show that
countries with a diversified export basket experience lower growth volatility.
Among diversification indices, intensive margin (more balanced basket of
exports) is found to have a stronger negative impact on volatility, rather than
extensive margin (number of firms exporting). 

Keywords

Growth Volatility, Export Diversification

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