Research Article
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Türkiye’de Trafik Kazalarının Lineer Regresyon İle Analizi

Year 2012, Volume: 2 Issue: 3, 69 - 78, 30.09.2012

Abstract

Teknolojinin ilerlemesi, insan ihtiyaç ve istekleri ile paralel olarak üretimi artırmış ve çeşitlendirmiştir. Bu ihtiyaç ve isteklerin başında, hızlı ve güvenli ulaşım gelmektedir. Motorlu araçların insan hizmetine sunulması, sürücü ve araç sayısının artması; trafik güvenliği ihtiyacını da ortaya çıkarmıştır. Ülkemizde trafik güvenliğine etki eden unsurlardan birisi de karayollarıdır. Karayollarının gerekli standartlara uygun projelendirilmemesi ve/veya yapım aşamasında imalatların istenilen seviyede denetlenmemesinden doğan ve yolun tamamlanmasından sonra ortaya çıkan önemli olumsuzluklardan; deforme olmuş yollar, şev kaymaları, hatalı yol eğimleri, drenaj problemleri, çökmeler, çukurlar ve diğer etkenler trafik güvenliğini olumsuz yönde etkilemektedir.Bu çalışmada, trafik güvenliğini etkileyen ana faktörlerden yol unsurunun yapısal özellikleri, çeşitli kaynaklardan alınan bilgilere göre incelenmiş ve karayolları üzerinde trafik kazalarını oluşturan genel kusurlar ile yol kusurları için 18 yıllık ve dört dönemlik zaman serisi verileri kullanılarak, lineer regresyon analiziyle yol faktörünün trafik güvenliğine etkileri belirlenmeye çalışılmıştır.Araştırma sonuçlarına göre; trafik kazalarına sebep olan ana kusurlardan sürücü, yaya, araç, yolcu ve yol kusurları etkinlik derecesine göre sıralanmıştır. Ayrıca yol kusurlarından çukur, teker izi, düşük banket, gevşek malzeme, ondülasyon, yol işaretlerinin eksikliği ve yol çökmesi kazaların meydana gelmesinde önemli etkiye sahiptirler. Yol kusurlarını azaltmak için yol projesini tüm ihtiyaçlara cevap verecek şekilde hazırlamak gerekir. Bununla birlikte yol alt ve üst yapısı proje ve standartlara uygun bir şekilde yapılmalıdır

References

  • Aydın, A. H., 1997. Safety of railway access. 2nd National Railway Conference İstanbul (in Turkish).
  • Ceylan, H., Haldenbilen, S., 2005. Modelling of the ınterurban transportation demand by genetic algorithms. IMO technical journal, 3599-3618 (in Turkish).
  • Çakır, Ş., 1996. Determination of traffic accident proofs. Gazi Uni- versity Institute of Science and Technology, MS. Thesis (Un- published), Ankara (in Turkish).
  • GDH, 2006. Highway technical specification. Ankara (in Turkish).
  • GDS, 2006. Traffic bulletin and statistics. www.egm.gov.tr/trafik/ istatistik, (Date of access: 02.05.2007) (in Turkish).
  • Kalyoncuoğlu, Ş.F., Tığdemir, M., 2001. “The fuzzy logic model- ling of some effective driver characteristics in traffic accidents in Turkey.”, Technical Journal, IMO, 12(4): 2505-2516 (in Turkish).
  • Karaşahin, M., Tığdemir, M., 2001. Research analysis of traffic ac- cidents. Traffic and Road Safety Conference, Ankara.
  • Kılınç, B., 2007. The effect of structural properties of highways on traffic safety. Atatürk University MS. Thesis, (Unpublished), Erzurum (in Turkish).
  • Kiper, T., 1996. Highway traffic accidents. PIARCY Highway Safe- ty Conference, Netherland.
  • Özdirim, M., 2001. Traffic engineering and infrastructure. Traffic and Road Safety Conference, Ankara (in Turkish).
  • Sümer, N., 2000. Role of personality trait at driver behaviours prone to the accidents. Research Project Report no. AFP- 99.01.04.03, METU, Ankara (in Turkish).
  • Tan, A., 2000. The press statement of TBMM Traffic Research Committee, Ankara (in Turkish).
  • TSI, 1986-2006. Traffic Accidents Statistics. www.tuik.gov.tr/ ulastirmavehaberlesme (Date of access: 25.01.2007) (in Turkish).

Modeling Traffic Accidents in Turkey Using Regression Analysis

Year 2012, Volume: 2 Issue: 3, 69 - 78, 30.09.2012

Abstract

Technological improvements have increased and diversified production based on people’s needs.

The most important needs include traffic safety and speed. An increasing number of motor vehicles and drivers

have brought focus on the importance of traffic safety. In Turkey, one of the factors affecting traffic safety is highways.

Lack of standards in Turkey’s highway projects, no/poor control of road materials produced by companies

in the road-making stage and problems after completion of the road, deformed roads, slope failure, failure gradient

of roads, drainage problems, road settlement, road pits and other factors have affected traffic safety tremendously.

In this study, structural properties of road components from main factors which affect traffic safety were investigated

based on information and data from several sources. Eighteen-year each in four-period time series data that

consist of main and road failures causing traffic accidents on highways were used to determine their effects on traffic

safety of road component with linear regression analysis.

According to research results, driver, pedestrian, vehicle, passenger and road failures in main traffic accident failure

list were ranked based on their effectiveness. It is found that road failures such as road pits, wheel trace, soft

shoulders, loose material, permanent wave, deficiency of road signs and road settlements have an important effect

on traffic accidents. To reduce road failures, road projects must be planned carefully to meet human needs. In addition

to this, road infrastructure and superstructure must be built according to specific road projects and standards.

References

  • Aydın, A. H., 1997. Safety of railway access. 2nd National Railway Conference İstanbul (in Turkish).
  • Ceylan, H., Haldenbilen, S., 2005. Modelling of the ınterurban transportation demand by genetic algorithms. IMO technical journal, 3599-3618 (in Turkish).
  • Çakır, Ş., 1996. Determination of traffic accident proofs. Gazi Uni- versity Institute of Science and Technology, MS. Thesis (Un- published), Ankara (in Turkish).
  • GDH, 2006. Highway technical specification. Ankara (in Turkish).
  • GDS, 2006. Traffic bulletin and statistics. www.egm.gov.tr/trafik/ istatistik, (Date of access: 02.05.2007) (in Turkish).
  • Kalyoncuoğlu, Ş.F., Tığdemir, M., 2001. “The fuzzy logic model- ling of some effective driver characteristics in traffic accidents in Turkey.”, Technical Journal, IMO, 12(4): 2505-2516 (in Turkish).
  • Karaşahin, M., Tığdemir, M., 2001. Research analysis of traffic ac- cidents. Traffic and Road Safety Conference, Ankara.
  • Kılınç, B., 2007. The effect of structural properties of highways on traffic safety. Atatürk University MS. Thesis, (Unpublished), Erzurum (in Turkish).
  • Kiper, T., 1996. Highway traffic accidents. PIARCY Highway Safe- ty Conference, Netherland.
  • Özdirim, M., 2001. Traffic engineering and infrastructure. Traffic and Road Safety Conference, Ankara (in Turkish).
  • Sümer, N., 2000. Role of personality trait at driver behaviours prone to the accidents. Research Project Report no. AFP- 99.01.04.03, METU, Ankara (in Turkish).
  • Tan, A., 2000. The press statement of TBMM Traffic Research Committee, Ankara (in Turkish).
  • TSI, 1986-2006. Traffic Accidents Statistics. www.tuik.gov.tr/ ulastirmavehaberlesme (Date of access: 25.01.2007) (in Turkish).
There are 13 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Engineering
Journal Section İnşaat Mühendisliği / Civil Engineering
Authors

Ahmet Tortum This is me

Muhammed Yasin Çodur This is me

Burhanettin Kılınç This is me

Publication Date September 30, 2012
Submission Date May 4, 2012
Acceptance Date July 31, 2012
Published in Issue Year 2012 Volume: 2 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Tortum, A., Çodur, M. Y., & Kılınç, B. (2012). Türkiye’de Trafik Kazalarının Lineer Regresyon İle Analizi. Journal of the Institute of Science and Technology, 2(3), 69-78.
AMA Tortum A, Çodur MY, Kılınç B. Türkiye’de Trafik Kazalarının Lineer Regresyon İle Analizi. J. Inst. Sci. and Tech. October 2012;2(3):69-78.
Chicago Tortum, Ahmet, Muhammed Yasin Çodur, and Burhanettin Kılınç. “Türkiye’de Trafik Kazalarının Lineer Regresyon İle Analizi”. Journal of the Institute of Science and Technology 2, no. 3 (October 2012): 69-78.
EndNote Tortum A, Çodur MY, Kılınç B (October 1, 2012) Türkiye’de Trafik Kazalarının Lineer Regresyon İle Analizi. Journal of the Institute of Science and Technology 2 3 69–78.
IEEE A. Tortum, M. Y. Çodur, and B. Kılınç, “Türkiye’de Trafik Kazalarının Lineer Regresyon İle Analizi”, J. Inst. Sci. and Tech., vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 69–78, 2012.
ISNAD Tortum, Ahmet et al. “Türkiye’de Trafik Kazalarının Lineer Regresyon İle Analizi”. Journal of the Institute of Science and Technology 2/3 (October 2012), 69-78.
JAMA Tortum A, Çodur MY, Kılınç B. Türkiye’de Trafik Kazalarının Lineer Regresyon İle Analizi. J. Inst. Sci. and Tech. 2012;2:69–78.
MLA Tortum, Ahmet et al. “Türkiye’de Trafik Kazalarının Lineer Regresyon İle Analizi”. Journal of the Institute of Science and Technology, vol. 2, no. 3, 2012, pp. 69-78.
Vancouver Tortum A, Çodur MY, Kılınç B. Türkiye’de Trafik Kazalarının Lineer Regresyon İle Analizi. J. Inst. Sci. and Tech. 2012;2(3):69-78.