A Study on Determinants of Coffee Export from Indonesia to The United States of America

Year 2023, Volume: 13 Issue: 3, 2174 - 2184, 01.09.2023

Hilmy Prilliadi , Avni Birinci

https://doi.org/10.21597/jist.1227055

Cited By: 1

Abstract

This research was conducted to reveal the determinants of Indonesia's coffee exports to the USA. In addition, it has been determined as the sub-objectives of the research to reveal the reasons for the recent decline in coffee exports and to try to produce alternative policies to increase the value of coffee exports from Indonesia to the USA. In this research, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration analysis estimation method was implemented by using EViews 12 program. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that the exchange rate of the US Dollar against the Indonesian Rupiah and the annual inflation rate of Indonesia did not have a statistically significant effect on the value of coffee exports in both the short and long run. In addition, variables of world coffee prices, US coffee consumption, world tea prices, Indonesia's coffee export prices to the USA, terms of trade, trade openness, and Indonesia's coffee planting area were found to be statistically significant. Furthermore, it has been determined that the US coffee consumption and Indonesia's coffee export price to the USA have a positive effect in the short term, but have a negative effect in the long term. Among all the independent variables, it was revealed that the Indonesian coffee planting area variable had the greatest effect. Therefore, it can be stated that policymakers should try to address the challenges of exporting to increase the export value of Indonesian coffee to the US and be careful not to overly focus on exchange rate fixing or inflation targeting as these two variables have no significant impact on export value. In addition, paying attention to the issue of product development that increases added value can be expressed as the most important of the suggestions that can be made based on the results obtained.

Keywords

Coffee export, ARDL model, Indonesia, USA, Cointegration

Endonezya’dan Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’ne Kahve İhracatının Belirleyicileri Üzerine Bir Araştırma

Abstract

Bu araştırma, Endonezya’nın ABD’ye yaptığı kahve ihracatının belirleyicilerini ortaya koymak amacıyla yapılmıştır. Ayrıca, kahve ihracatında son dönemlerde meydana gelen değer düşüşlerinin nedenlerini ortaya koymak ve Endonezya’dan ABD’ye yapılan kahve ihracatının değerini artırmak için alternatif politikalar üretmeye çalışmak araştırmanın alt amaçları olarak belirlenmiştir. Bu araştırmada, EViews 12 yazılım programı ile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) eşbütünleşme analizi tahmin yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonucunda, hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde ABD dolarının Endonezya rupisi karşısındaki döviz kuru ve Endonezya yıllık enflasyon oranının istatistiksel olarak kahve ihracat değeri üzerinde önemli bir etki göstermediği belirlenmiştir. Ayrıca dünya kahve fiyatları, ABD kahve tüketimi, dünya çay fiyatları, Endonezya'nın ABD'ye kahve ihracat fiyatları, dış ticaret hadleri, ticari dışa açıklık ve Endonezya’nın kahve dikim alanı değişkenleri istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmuştur. Bu arada, kısa dönemde ABD kahve tüketimi ve Endonezya’nın ABD’ye kahve ihracat fiyatı olumlu bir etki verdiği ancak uzun dönemde olumsuz olarak etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. Tüm bağımsız değişkenler arasında Endonezya kahve dikim alanı değişkeninin en büyük etkiye sahip olduğu ortaya konmuştur. Buradan, politika yapıcılar Endonezya kahvesinin ABD'ye ihracat değerini artırmak için ihracatın zorluklarını ele almaya çalışmaları gerektiği ve Endonezya kahvesi ihracat değeri üzerinde hiçbir etkisi olmadığı için döviz kuru sabitlemesine veya enflasyon hedeflemesine aşırı odaklanmamaya dikkat etmeleri gerektiği ifade edilebilir. Ayrıca katma değeri artıran ürün geliştirme konusuna dikkat edilmesi elde edilen sonuçlardan yola çıkarak yapılabilecek önerilerden en önemlileri olarak ifade edilebilir.

Keywords

Kahve ihracatı, ARDL modeli, Endonezya, ABD, Eşbütünleşme

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