BLUE ECONOMY, ECOTOURISM, AND SUSTAINABLE TOURISM: A 10-YEAR GLOBAL DIGITAL INTEREST ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING VIA ETS MODEL
Abstract
The global tourism and development agenda is increasingly shifting toward a more sustainable structure. While previous studies has predominantly relied on static survey data, this study analyzes the long-term global digital footprints of three critical concepts—ecotourism, sustainable tourism, and the blue economy—to reveal their dynamic evolution in societal awareness. Utilizing Google Trends data (2015–2025), future projections up to 2027 were generated using the ETS (Error, Trend, Seasonality) forecasting algorithm, specifically selected for its robustness in modeling non-linear digital search trends. The findings reveal structural differences in digital behavioral patterns. While ecotourism and sustainable tourism exhibit a consumer-oriented, seasonal, and highly predictable upward trend in search interest, the Blue Economy displays a policy-driven structure characterized by a recent surge in digital awareness but higher volatility in the face of external shocks. The study concludes that, although positive digital interest trajectories are projected to continue through 2027, this digital awareness should be interpreted as an early indicator of potential consumer and policy shifts rather than absolute actualized demand. Ultimately, the nature of this interest is evolving from a mere “popular holiday preference” into a broader “strategic and economic vision
Keywords
blue economy, sustainable tourism, ecotourism, google trends, ETS model, future projection
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