Enflasyon – Büyüme İlişkisi: OECD Ülkeleri Örneği

Abstract

Bu makale, 1972-2021 yılları arasında 38 Ekonomik İşbirliği ve Kalkınma Örgütü (OECD) ülkesinde enflasyonun ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. İçsellik ve ters nedensellik sorunlarının üstesinden gelmek için sistem genelleştirilmiş momentler yöntemini (GMM) kullanarak elde edilen sonuçlara göre, enflasyonun ekonomik büyüme üzerinde negatif etkisi bulunmaktadır. Enflasyondaki yüzde birlik artış, modele bağlı olmak koşuluyla büyümeyi yüzde 0.03 ile 0.15 oranında azaltmaktadır. Sonuçlar çok sayıda kontrol değişkeni ile de desteklenmiştir. Sonuçları daha fazla test etmek amacıyla, fark momentler yöntemi ve sabit etki regresyonları kullanılmıştır ve elde edilen bulgular sistem genelleştirilmiş momentler yöntemini doğrulamıştır. Bu nedenle politika yapıcılar, kısa, orta ve uzun vadede enflasyonun yayılmasını önlemek için belirli politikalar uygulamalıdır.

Keywords

• Enflasyon
• Büyüme
• Sistem GMM
• OECD

Inflation – Economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from OECD Countries

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of inflation on economic growth in 38 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries from 1972-2021. The results confirm that inflation harms economic growth with various specifications using the generalized method of moments (GMM) to overcome endogeneity and reverse causality issues. One percent increase in inflation reduces growth by 0.03-0.15 percent depending on the model. The results are robust with numerous control variables. For further robustness, difference GMM and fixed effect (FE) regressions are utilized, and they verify the system GMM results that inflation has adverse effects on growth. Thus, policymakers should implement specific policies to prevent the spread of inflation in the long run.

Keywords

• Inflation
• Growth
• OECD
• System GMM

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