Enflasyon – Büyüme İlişkisi: OECD Ülkeleri Örneği

Öz

Bu makale, 1972-2021 yılları arasında 38 Ekonomik İşbirliği ve Kalkınma Örgütü (OECD) ülkesinde enflasyonun ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. İçsellik ve ters nedensellik sorunlarının üstesinden gelmek için sistem genelleştirilmiş momentler yöntemini (GMM) kullanarak elde edilen sonuçlara göre, enflasyonun ekonomik büyüme üzerinde negatif etkisi bulunmaktadır. Enflasyondaki yüzde birlik artış, modele bağlı olmak koşuluyla büyümeyi yüzde 0.03 ile 0.15 oranında azaltmaktadır. Sonuçlar çok sayıda kontrol değişkeni ile de desteklenmiştir. Sonuçları daha fazla test etmek amacıyla, fark momentler yöntemi ve sabit etki regresyonları kullanılmıştır ve elde edilen bulgular sistem genelleştirilmiş momentler yöntemini doğrulamıştır. Bu nedenle politika yapıcılar, kısa, orta ve uzun vadede enflasyonun yayılmasını önlemek için belirli politikalar uygulamalıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Enflasyon
• Büyüme
• Sistem GMM
• OECD

Inflation – Economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from OECD Countries

Öz

This paper investigates the impact of inflation on economic growth in 38 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries from 1972-2021. The results confirm that inflation harms economic growth with various specifications using the generalized method of moments (GMM) to overcome endogeneity and reverse causality issues. One percent increase in inflation reduces growth by 0.03-0.15 percent depending on the model. The results are robust with numerous control variables. For further robustness, difference GMM and fixed effect (FE) regressions are utilized, and they verify the system GMM results that inflation has adverse effects on growth. Thus, policymakers should implement specific policies to prevent the spread of inflation in the long run.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Inflation
• Growth
• OECD
• System GMM

Kaynakça

1. Alexander, R. (1997). Inflation and economic growth: Evidence from a growth equation. Applied Economics, 29, 233–238.
2. Andrés, J., & Ignacio, H. (1999). Does Inflation Harm Economic Growth? Evidence from the OECD. In M. S. Feldstein (Ed.), The costs and benefits of price stability (pp. 315–348). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Retrieved from http://www.nber.org/chapters/c7777
3. Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968
4. Ayyoub, M., Chaudhry, I. S., & Farooq, F. (2011). Does Inflation Affect Economic Growth? The case of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences (PJSS), 31(1), 51–64.
5. Baltagi, B. H. (2021). Econometric analysis of panel data (Sixth edition). Cham, Switzerland Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-53953-5
6. Barro, R. J. (1996). Inflation and Growth. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
7. Barro, R. J. (2001). Human Capital and Growth. AEA Papers and Proceedings, 91(2), 12–17.
8. Barro, R. J. (2013). Inflation and Economic Growth. Annals of Economics and Finance, 85–109.

9. Bick, A. (2010). Threshold effects of inflation on economic growth in developing countries. Economics Letters, 108(2), 126–129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2010.04.040
10. Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 29.
11. Burdekin, R. C. K., Denzau, A. T., Keil, M. W., Sitthiyot, T., & Willett, T. D. (2004). When does inflation hurt economic growth? Different nonlinearities for different economies. Journal of Macroeconomics, 26(3), 519–532. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2003.03.005
12. De Gregorio, J. (1992a). Economic growth in Latin America. Journal of Development Economics, 39(1), 59–84. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(92)90057-G
13. De Gregorio, J. (1992b). The effects of inflation on economic growth. European Economic Review, 36(2–3), 417–425. https://doi.org/10.1016/0014-2921(92)90098-H
14. Dornbusch, R., & Frenkel, J. A. (1973). Inflation and Growth: Alternative Approaches. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 5(1), 141. https://doi.org/10.2307/1991068
15. Eggoh, J. C., & Khan, M. (2014). On the nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth. Research in Economics, 68(2), 133–143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rie.2014.01.001
16. Emek, Ö. F., & Düşünceli̇, F. (2021). Türkiye’de Katılım Bankacılığı Sektörü Bağlamında Finansal Gelişmeler, Enflasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin İncelenmesi. Aydın İktisat Fakültesi Dergisi, 83–98. https://doi.org/10.53839/aifd.1027102
17. Engblom, J., & Oikarinen, E. (2015). Using Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond Estimator in Dynamic Panel Data Analysis – Case of Finnish Housing Price Dynamics. International Journal of Mathematical and Computational Sciences, 9(8).
18. Faria, J. R., & Carneiro, F. G. (2001). Does High Inflation Affect Growth in the Long and Short Run? Journal of Applied Economics, 4(1), 89–105. https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2001.12040559
19. Fernández Valdovinos, C. G. (2003). Inflation and economic growth in the long run. Economics Letters, 80(2), 167–173. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(03)00085-5
20. Fischer, S. (1983). Inflation and Growth. NBER Working Paper Series- Working Paper No. 1235, 22.
21. Fischer, S. (1993). The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, 485–512.
22. Gillman, M., Harris, M. N., & Matyas, L. (2004). Inflation and growth: Explaining a negative effect. Empirical Economics, 29(1), 149–167. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-003-0186-0
23. Goodfriend, M. (2004). The inflation-targeting debate (B. Bernanke & M. Woodford, (Eds.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
24. Hansen, B. E. (1999). Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference. Journal of Econometrics, 24.
25. Hwang, J.-T., & Wu, M.-J. (2011). Inflation and Economic Growth in China: An Empirical Analysis. China & World Economy, 19(5), 67–84. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-124X.2011.01259.x
26. Jayathileke, P. M. B., & Rathnayake, R. M. K. T. (2013). Testing the Link between Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence from Asia. Modern Economy, 04(02), 87–92. https://doi.org/10.4236/me.2013.42011
27. Khan, M. S., & Senhadji, A. S. (2001). Threshold Effects in the Relationship between Inflation and Growth. IMF Staff Papers, 48(1), 1–21.
28. King, R. G., & Baxter, M. (1995). Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series. NBER Working Paper Series.
29. Kormendi, R. C., & Meguire, P. G. (1985). Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence. Journal of Monetary Economics, 16(2), 141–163. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(85)90027-3
30. Kryeziu, N., & Durguti, E. (2019). The impact of inflation on economic growth: The case of the Eurozone. 8(1), 9.
31. Li, C., Murshed, S. M., & Tanna, S. (2017). The impact of civil war on foreign direct investment flows to developing countries. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 26(4), 488–507. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2016.1270347
32. Lucas, R. E. (1980). Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money. The American Economic Review, 70(5), 1005–1014.
33. Majumder, S. C. (2016). Inflation and its impacts on economic growth of Bangladesh. American Journal of Marketing Research, 2(1), 17-26.
34. Mallik, G., & Chowdhury, A. (2001). Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence from Four South Asian Countries. Asia Pacific Development Journal, 8(1), 123–135.
35. Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D., & Weil, D. N. (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, 407–437.
36. Pollin, R., & Zhu, A. (2006). Inflation and economic growth: A cross-country nonlinear analysis. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 28(4), 593–614. https://doi.org/10.2753/PKE0160-3477280404
37. Saaed, A. A. (2007). Inflation and economic growth in Kuwait: 1985-2005-Evidence from co-integration and error correction model. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 7(1).
38. Sarel, M. (1996). Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth. Staff Papers (International Monetary Fund), 43(1), 199–215.
39. Sepehri, A., & Moshiri, S. (2004). Inflation‐Growth Profiles Across Countries: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries. International Review of Applied Economics, 18(2), 191–207. https://doi.org/10.1080/0269217042000186679
40. Sweidan, O. D. (2014). Does Inflation Harm Economic Growth in Jordan? An Econometric Analysis for the Period 1970-2000. International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, 1(2), 41–66.
41. Tobin, J. (1965). Money and Economic Growth. Econometrica, 33(4), 671–684.
42. Vinayagathasan, T. (2013). Inflation and economic growth: A dynamic panel threshold analysis for Asian economies. Journal of Asian Economics, 26, 31–41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2013.04.001