Irak'ta Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Analizi ve Öngörüleri

Abstract

Bu makalenin amacı, Irak'a gelen Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım (DYY) miktarını, Suudi Arabistan ile karşılaştırmalı olarak 2100 yılına kadar olan tarihsel veriler ve tahminlerle analiz etmektir. Bulgular, Irak'taki Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımın 1970 ile 2022 yılları arasında GSYİH ile negatif ve orta düzeyde bir korelasyona sahip olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır (-%51). Bu dönemde doğrudan yabancı yatırım ekonomik büyümenin motoru değildir. Bu iki değişken arasındaki ilişki önümüzdeki yıllarda tersine dönerek +%86'ya ulaşması öngörülmektedir. Böylece doğrudan yabancı yatırım Irak ekonomisindeki büyümenin temel itici gücü olacaktır. Suudi Arabistan'ın hikayesi bu durumun tam tersidir. Suudi Arabistan'daki doğrudan yabancı yatırımların 1970 ile 2022 yılları arasında GSYİH ile pozitif ve orta düzeyde bir korelasyonu vardır (+%49). Böylece doğrudan yabancı yatırım ekonomik büyümenin motoru olmaya devam etmiştir. Bu iki değişken arasındaki ilişki önümüzdeki yıllarda tersine dönerek -%44'e ulaşması gönderülmektedir. Sonuç olarak büyüyen ekonomi kendi kendine yeterli olacak, yeterli nakit akışı yaratabilecek ve böylece ekonomi artık büyüme için doğrudan yabancı yatırımlara bağımlı olmayacaktır.

Keywords

• Doğrudan yabancı yatırım
• Dalgacık Analizi
• Irak
• Suudi Arabistan

Analysis and Projections of Foreign Direct Investments in Iraq

Abstract

The objective of the paper is to analyze Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Iraq, benchmarked to Saudi Arabia, with historical data and forecasts up to 2100. The findings reveal that FDI in Iraq had a negative and moderate correlation with GDP between 1970 and 2022 (-51%). FDI was not an engine of economic growth. The relationship between these two variables is predicted to reverse in the coming years and reach +86%. Thus, FDI will be a key driver of growth in the Iraqi economy. The story of Saudi Arabia is the opposite. FDI in Saudi Arabia had a positive and moderate correlation with GDP between 1970 and 2022 (+49%). Thus, FDI remained an engine of economic growth. The relationship between these two variables is expected to reverse in the coming years and reach -44%. Finally, the growing economy will be self-sufficient, being able to generate enough cash flows so that the economy no longer depends on FDI for growth.

Keywords

• FDI
• Wavelet Analysis
• Iraq
• Saudi Arabia

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