Irak'ta Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Analizi ve Öngörüleri

Öz

Bu makalenin amacı, Irak'a gelen Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım (DYY) miktarını, Suudi Arabistan ile karşılaştırmalı olarak 2100 yılına kadar olan tarihsel veriler ve tahminlerle analiz etmektir. Bulgular, Irak'taki Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımın 1970 ile 2022 yılları arasında GSYİH ile negatif ve orta düzeyde bir korelasyona sahip olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır (-%51). Bu dönemde doğrudan yabancı yatırım ekonomik büyümenin motoru değildir. Bu iki değişken arasındaki ilişki önümüzdeki yıllarda tersine dönerek +%86'ya ulaşması öngörülmektedir. Böylece doğrudan yabancı yatırım Irak ekonomisindeki büyümenin temel itici gücü olacaktır. Suudi Arabistan'ın hikayesi bu durumun tam tersidir. Suudi Arabistan'daki doğrudan yabancı yatırımların 1970 ile 2022 yılları arasında GSYİH ile pozitif ve orta düzeyde bir korelasyonu vardır (+%49). Böylece doğrudan yabancı yatırım ekonomik büyümenin motoru olmaya devam etmiştir. Bu iki değişken arasındaki ilişki önümüzdeki yıllarda tersine dönerek -%44'e ulaşması gönderülmektedir. Sonuç olarak büyüyen ekonomi kendi kendine yeterli olacak, yeterli nakit akışı yaratabilecek ve böylece ekonomi artık büyüme için doğrudan yabancı yatırımlara bağımlı olmayacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Doğrudan yabancı yatırım
• Dalgacık Analizi
• Irak
• Suudi Arabistan

Analysis and Projections of Foreign Direct Investments in Iraq

Öz

The objective of the paper is to analyze Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Iraq, benchmarked to Saudi Arabia, with historical data and forecasts up to 2100. The findings reveal that FDI in Iraq had a negative and moderate correlation with GDP between 1970 and 2022 (-51%). FDI was not an engine of economic growth. The relationship between these two variables is predicted to reverse in the coming years and reach +86%. Thus, FDI will be a key driver of growth in the Iraqi economy. The story of Saudi Arabia is the opposite. FDI in Saudi Arabia had a positive and moderate correlation with GDP between 1970 and 2022 (+49%). Thus, FDI remained an engine of economic growth. The relationship between these two variables is expected to reverse in the coming years and reach -44%. Finally, the growing economy will be self-sufficient, being able to generate enough cash flows so that the economy no longer depends on FDI for growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• FDI
• Wavelet Analysis
• Iraq
• Saudi Arabia

Kaynakça

1. Abbas, S., & Mosallamy, D. E. (2016). Determinants of FDI Flows to Developing Countries: An Empirical Study on the MENA Region. Journal of Finance and Economics, 4(1), Article 1. https://doi.org/10.12691/jfe-4-1-4
2. Abdullah, I. S. (2020). Foreign Direct Investment and its Impact on the Oil Sector in Iraq. AL-Anbar University journal of Economic and Administration Sciences 2020, 12(31), 174-191.
3. Ali, S. H., & Jameel, S. A. (2021). The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Gross Domestic Product in Iraq During the Period (2006—2015). Academic Journal of Nawroz University, 10(1), Article 1. https://doi.org/10.25007/ajnu.v10n1a1122
4. BBC. (2023). Aramco: Saudi state-owned oil giant sees record profit of $161bn. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-64931074
5. Callen, T. (2024). Gross Domestic Product: An Economy’s All. IMF. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Back-to-Basics/gross-domestic-product-GDP
6. CFI Team. (2023). Foreign Investment. Corporate Finance Institute. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/economics/foreign-investment/
7. Dinh, T. T.-H., Vo, D. H., The Vo, A., & Nguyen, T. C. (2019). Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in the Short Run and Long Run: Empirical Evidence from Developing Countries. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12(4), Article 4. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12040176
8. Dyvik, E.H. (2023). Foreign direct investment confidence index in 2023. Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/955017/fdi-confidence-index/

9. Fortune (2022). Global 500 Companies Ranking. https://fortune.com/company/walmart/global500/ and https://fortune.com/company/saudi-aramco/global500/
10. Hidalgo, C.A., & Hausmann, R. (2009). The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. PNAS. 106(26), 10570–10575. arXiv:0909.3890. Bibcode:2009PNAS..10610570H. doi:10.1073/pnas.0900943106. PMC 2705545. PMID 19549871.
11. Hulak, I. (2023). Saudi Arabia: an emerging industrial foreign direct investment hub. Kearney. https://www.middle-east.kearney.com/industrial-development/article/-/insights/saudi-arabia-an-emerging-industrial-foreign-direct-investment-hub
12. Khaliq, A., & Noy, I. (2007). Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Sectoral Data in Indonesia (Working Paper 200726). University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/haiwpaper/200726.htm
13. Kumari, R., & Sharma, A. (2017). Determinants of foreign direct investment in developing countries: A panel data study. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 12, 00–00. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJoEM-10-2014-0169
14. Lasbrey, A., Enyoghasim, M., Tobechi, A., Uwajumogu, N., Chukwu, B., & Kennedy, O. (2018). Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Literature from 1980 to 2018. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 8(5), Article 5.
15. Moon, E.B., & William, J.D. (1993). Basic needs and growth-welfare trade-offs. In: Michell, A.S., John, T.S., editors. Development of Underdevelopment: The Political Economy of Inequality. Boulder, Colorado 80301 USA
16. OECD. (2009). OECD Benchmark Definition of Foreign Direct Investment 2008: Fourth Edition. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. https://www.oecdilibrary.org/finance-and-investment/oecd-benchmark-definition-of-foreign-direct-investment-2008_9789264045743-en
17. OECD (2023). Foreign direct investment statistics Explanatory notes. https://www.oecd.org/daf/inv/FDI-statistics-explanatory-notes.pdf
18. Phung, H. B. (2016). Determinants of FDI into Developing Countries. Mark A. Israel '91 Endowed Summer Research Fund in Economics. 4. https://digitalcommons.iwu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1004&context=israel_economics
19. Rostan, P., Belhachemi, R., & Rostan, A. (2015). Appraising the financial sustainability of a pension system with signal processing. Studies of Applied Economics, 33(3), 1-16. DOI: http://dx.DOI.org/10.25115/eea.v33i3.3134 http://ojs.ual.es/ojs/index.php/eea/article/view/3134
20. Rostan, P, Belhachemi, R., & Racicot, FE. (2017). Forecasting the yield curve with the Burg model. Journal of Forecasting, 36(1), 91-99. DOI: 10.1002/for.2416
21. Rostan, P., & Rostan, A. (2017). Population Projections and Pension System Sustainability. Saarbrücken: Lambert Academic Publishing. ISBN 978-620-2-06479-8 https://www.morebooks.de/gb/search?utf8=%E2%9C%93andq=978-620-2-06479-8
22. Rostan, P., & Rostan, A. (2018a). The versatility of spectrum analysis for forecasting financial time series. The Journal of Forecasting, 3(3), 327-339. DOI: https://DOI.org/10.1002/for.2504
23. Rostan, P., & Rostan, A. (2018b). Will Saudi Arabia Get Older? Will its pension system be sustainable? Spectral Answers. PSU Research Review, 2(3), 189-205. DOI: https://DOI.org/10.1108/PRR-12-2017-0045 https://www.emeraldinsight.com/DOI/full/10.1108/PRR-12-2017-0045 .
24. Rostan, P., & Rostan, A. (2018c). Forecasting Spanish and Euro Area GDPs with Spectral Analysis. Estudios De Economía Aplicada 36(1), 217-234. https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/articulo?codigo=6283924
25. Rostan, P., & Rostan, A. (2018d). Where is Greek’s Economy Heading? International Journal of Management and Applied Science (IJMAS) 4(3), 28-31. http://ijmas.iraj.in/paper_detail.php?paper_id=11490andname=Where_is_Greece%E2%80%99s_Economy_Heading?_A_Spectral_Perspective
26. Rostan, P., & Rostan, A. (2019). When will European Muslim Population be majority and in which country. PSU Research Review 3(2). doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/PRR-12-2018-0034 https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/PRR-12-2018-0034/full/html
27. Rostan, P., & Rostan, A. (2020). Where is Austria’s Economy Heading? Economic and Business Review 22(1), 105-130. doi: https://doi.org/10.15458/ebr97. https://www.ebrjournal.net/uploads/ebr/public/document/13-ebr_221_d_rostan_barvni_en.pdf
28. Rostan, P., & Rostan, A. (2021a). Where is Saudi Arabia’s Economy Heading? International Journal of Emerging Markets 16(8), 2009-2033. doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOEM-08-2018-0447). https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJOEM-08-2018-0447/full/html
29. Rostan, P., & Rostan, A. (2021b). Where are fossil fuels prices heading? International Journal of Energy Sector Management 15(2), 309-327. doi: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJESM-07-2019-0009. https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJESM-07-2019-0009/full/html
30. Rostan, P., & Rostan, A. (2022a). 2050 Projections of the Persian Gulf Economies. Iranian Economic Review 26(2), 269-288. doi: 10.22059/ier.2022.88164. https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_88164.html
31. Rostan, P., & Rostan, A. (2022b). Assessing the Resilience of Turkey’s Economy during the Covid-19 Pandemic with its 2050 Projections. Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy 7(2), 38-49. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/2595010
32. Rostan, P., & Rostan, A. (2022c). Assessing The Resilience of UK’s Economy After the Covid-19 Pandemic and Brexit. Online Journal Modelling the New Europe 40, 47-77. doi: 10.24193/OJMNE.2022.40.03. http://neweurope.centre.ubbcluj.ro/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/3.pdf
33. Rostan, P., & Rostan, A. (2023a). The Benefit of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Global Temperature Projections. Journal of Forecasting, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3011, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/for.3011
34. Rostan, P., & Rostan, A. (2023b). How South Korea’s economy gained momentum because of Covid-19. Studies of Applied Economics 41(2), DOI: 10.25115/sae.v41i2.9096, https://ojs.ual.es/ojs/index.php/eea/article/view/9096
35. Rostan, P., & Rostan, A. (2023c). How Cyprus’ Economy Coped with The Covid-19 Pandemic. Online Journal Modelling the New Europe 42, 109-137, September 2023, DOI: 10.24193/OJMNE.2023.42.06 http://neweurope.centre.ubbcluj.ro/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/06-rostan.pdf
36. Rostan, P., & Rostan, A. (2023d). Assessing the current and future efficiency of OECD countries in managing municipal solid waste. Journal of Recycling Economy and Sustainability Policy, 2(2). https://respjournal.com/index.php/pub/article/view/20
37. Rostan, P., & Rostan, A. (2024a). How Australia’s economy gained momentum because of Covid-19. Australian Economic Papers 63(1), DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.12308 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-8454.12308
38. Rostan, P., & Rostan, A. (2024b). How Brazil’s, Mexico’s and Argentina’s economies coped with the Covid-19 pandemic. Studies of Applied Economics 42(1). https://ojs.ual.es/ojs/index.php/eea/article/view/9417
39. Rostan, P., & Rostan, A. (2024c). Assessing the Saudi Vision plan with its 2030 and 2050 projections. IER Economic Review, DOI: 10.22059/ier.2024.369480.1007879, https://ier.ut.ac.ir/article_96120.html.
40. Rostan, P., & Rostan, A. (2024d). The positive impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Slovenian economy. International Journal of Euro-Mediterranean Studies, article in press.
41. Rostan, P., Rostan A., & Nurunnabi, M. (2023). Forewarned is forearmed: Forecasting expansions and contractions of the Saudi Economy. Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy 8(1), 178-190. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/3051860
42. Rostan, P., Rostan A., & Wall, J. (2024). Measuring the resilience to the Covid-19 pandemic of Eurozone Economies with their 2050 forecasts. Computational Economics, 63, 1137–1157. DOI: 10.1007/s10614-023-10425-z, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10614-023-10425-z
43. Rousseau, R. (2015). What is Meant by Emerging Countries? Diplomatic Courier. https://www.diplomaticourier.com/posts/what-is-meant-by-emerging-countries
44. Statista Research Department. (2023). Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Africa 2010-2027. Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1300858/total-gdp-value-in-africa/
45. Samargandi, N., A. Alghfais, M., & Al Huthail, H. M. (2022). Factors in Saudi FDI Inflow. SAGE Open, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440211067242
46. TheGlobalEconomy.com (2024). Oil revenue - Country rankings. https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/oil_revenue/
47. The United Nations (2022). Human Development Report 2021-22: Uncertain Times, Unsettled Lives: Shaping our Future in a Transforming World (PDF). ISBN 978-9-211-26451-7. https://hdr.undp.org/system/files/documents/global-report-document/hdr2021-22pdf_1.pdf
48. The United Nations (2014). Country classification. https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_current/2014wesp_country_classification.pdf
49. The World Bank (2022a). GDP (current US$). https://databankfiles.worldbank.org/public/ddpext_download/GDP.pdf
50. The World Bank (2022b). GDP per capita (current US$). https://genderdata.worldbank.org/indicators/ny-gdp-pcap-cd/
51. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (2024). Oil and petroleum products explained Where our oil comes from. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/where-our-oil-comes-from.php
52. Wearden, G. (2022). Saudi Aramco overtakes Apple as world's most valuable company. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/12/saudi-aramco-overtakes-apple-worlds-most-valuable-company
53. Whiteaker, J. (2020). The state of play: FDI in Saudi Arabia. Investment Monitor. https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/uncategorized/the-state-of-play-fdi-in-saudi-arabia/
54. World Bank (2024). Oil rents (% of GDP) - Saudi Arabia. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS?locations=SA
55. Worldometers (2024). Oil Reserves by Country. https://www.worldometers.info/oil/oil-reserves-by-country/ and “Oil Production by Country”. https://www.worldometers.info/oil/oil-production-by-country/
56. Zeng, S., & Zhou, Y. (2021). Foreign Direct Investment’s Impact on China’s Economic Growth, Technological Innovation and Pollution. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(6), 2839. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18062839