Çin Ekonomisinde Geleneksel Büyüme ve Yeşil Büyüme Yenilenebilir Enerji Tüketimini Nasıl Etkiler? Yeni Zaman Serisi Tekniklerinden Ampirik Kanıtlar

Abstract

Literatür yenilenebilir enerji tüketiminin belirleyicilerine özel bir önem vermekle birlikte Çin ekonomisi üzerine odaklanan zaman serisi çalışmalarının oldukça kısıtlı olduğu görülmektedir. Bu nedenle bu çalışma, 1990-2019 dönemi için Çin’de yeşil ekonomik büyüme (GG), yeşil inovasyon (GINV), ekonomik büyüme (GDP) ve karbon salınımının (CE) yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi (REN) üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktadır. Bu doğrultuda çalışmanın metodolojisinde ilk olarak değişkenlerin durağanlık seviyeleri incelenmek için KFF-ADF ve ani yapısal kırılmaları içeren Vogelsang-Perron (IO) birim kök testleri uygulanarak serilerin durağanlıkları test edilmiştir. Daha sonra değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşmenin varlığı ARDL ve Bootstrap eşbütünleşme testleriyle kanıtlanmıştır. DOLS tahminlerine göre yeşil büyüme ve yeşil inovasyon yenilenebilir enerji tüketimini arttırırken karbon salınımları ve ekonomik büyüme ise yenilenebilir enerji kullanımını azaltmaktadır. Son olarak değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini tespit etmek amacıyla KFF-TY ve TY nedensellik testleri uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre yeşil büyüme ve karbon salınımından yenilenebilir enerjiye tek yönlü nedenselliğin varlığı, TY nedensellik test sonucuna göre ise yeşil büyüme ile yenilenebilir enerji arasında, ekonomik büyüme ile yenilenebilir enerji arasında, yeşil inovasyon ile yenilenebilir enerji arasında ve son olarak karbon salınımı ile yenilenebilir enerji arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi kanıtlanmıştır. Çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlar ışığında Çin’de yenilenebilir enerji sektörünü geliştirebilmek için yeşil ekonomik büyüme ve yeşil inovasyon uygulamalarını kapsayan politika önerileri sunmak mümkün olabilecektir.

Keywords

• Yenilenebilir Enerji Tüketimi
• Yeşil Ekonomik Büyüme
• Bootstrap Eşbütünleşme
• Nedensellik
• Çin

How Conventional Growth and Green Growth Affect Renewable Energy Consumption in China’s Economy: Empirical Evidence from New Time Series Techniques

Abstract

Although the literature pays special attention to the determinants of renewable energy consumption, time series studies focusing on the Chinese economy are quite limited. Therefore, this study investigates the impact of green economic growth (GG), green innovation (GINV), economic growth (GDP) and carbon emissions (CE) on renewable energy consumption (REN) in China for the period 1990-2019. Accordingly, in the methodology of the study, the stationarity levels of the variables are first tested by applying the KFF-ADF and Vogelsang-Perron (IO) unit root tests including sudden structural breaks. Then, the existence of cointegration between the variables is proved by ARDL and Bootstrap cointegration tests. According to DOLS estimates, green growth and green innovation increase renewable energy consumption while carbon emissions and economic growth decrease renewable energy use. Finally, KFF-TY and TY causality tests were applied to determine the causality relationship between the variables. According to the results obtained, the existence of unidirectional causality from green growth and carbon emissions to renewable energy, and according to the TY causality test result, a bidirectional causality relationship between green growth and renewable energy, between economic growth and renewable energy, between green innovation and renewable energy, and finally between carbon emissions and renewable energy has been proven. In the light of the results obtained from the study, it will be possible to provide policy recommendations including green economic growth and green innovation practices in order to develop the renewable energy sector in China.

Keywords

• Renewable Energy Consumption
• Green Economic Growth
• Bootstrap Cointegration
• Causality
• China

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