Sustainability of External Debts: BRICST Countries

Abstract

This study investigates the sustainability of external debt in BRICST countries, a group that holds a strategic position in the global economy. For this purpose, three widely used indicators, namely Total External Debt Stock/GNI, Total External Debt Stock/Exports and Debt Service Ratio, of debt sustainability are analysed using annual data covering the period 1994–2020. The analysis employs second-generation panel unit root tests that allow for structural breaks and cross-sectional dependence, namely Carrion-i-Silvestre, Pesaran CADF, and Becker Fourier KPSS tests. The findings suggest that external debt is not sustainable in India, China, South Africa and Turkey, while it remains sustainable in Brazil and Russia.

Keywords

• Global risk
• Business activity
• Global challenges
• COVID-19

Dış Borçların Sürdürülebilirliği: BRICST Ülkeleri

Abstract

Bu çalışma, küresel ekonomide giderek daha fazla önem kazanan BRICST ülkelerinde dış borçların sürdürülebilirliğini incelemektedir. Bu amaçla, borç sürdürülebilirliğine ilişkin üç temel gösterge olan Toplam Dış Borç Stoku/Milli Gelir, Toplam Dış Borç Stoku/İhracat ve Borç Servis Oranı 1994–2020 dönemi için analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada yapısal kırılmaları ve yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan ikinci nesil panel birim kök testleri (Carrion-i-Silvestre, Pesaran CADF ve Becker Fourier KPSS) kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, Hindistan, Çin, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye’de dış borcun sürdürülemez olduğunu, buna karşın Brezilya ve Rusya’da sürdürülebilir olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Küresel risk
• İş aktivitesi
• Küresel zorluklar
• COVID-19

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