Economic Growth and Trade Deficit in Turkey

Abstract

Current account deficit not only in Turkey, is located between the main macroeconomic problem in many developed and developing countries. High rates of economic growth with current account deficits observed in Turkey's economy has been the main subject of economic debate. Growth series based on many years of Turkey's current account deficit, it is seen that there is an interaction between the growth deficit. In this study, it said relations between Turkey and the 1983- 2017 period related to GDP and current account has been examined through VAR analysis using data from the balance. As a result of the study, two-way causality relationship was determined between the two variables. In addition, it was concluded that the current account deficit affected the economic growth negatively and economic growth led to an increase in the current account deficit. As a result of the action and reaction analysis, it was concluded that the current account deficit negatively affected the economic growth and economic growth led to an increase in the current account deficit.

Keywords

• Economic growty,trade deficit,GDP,current account

Economic Growth and Trade Deficit in Turkey

Abstract

Current account deficit not only in Turkey, is located between the main macroeconomic problem in many developed and developing countries. High rates of economic growth with current account deficits observed in Turkey's economy has been the main subject of economic debate. Growth series based on many years of Turkey's current account deficit, it is seen that there is an interaction between the growth deficit. In this study, it said relations between Turkey and the 1983- 2017 period related to GDP and current account has been examined through VAR analysis using data from the balance. As a result of the study, two-way causality relationship was determined between the two variables. In addition, it was concluded that the current account deficit affected the economic growth negatively and economic growth led to an increase in the current account deficit. As a result of the        action and reaction analysis, it was concluded that the current account deficit negatively affected the economic growth and economic growth led to an increase in the current account deficit.

Keywords

• Economic growty,trade deficit,GDP,current account

References

1. Bayraktutan, Y., & Demirtaş, I. (2011). Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde cari açığın belirleyicileri: Panel ve veri analizi. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi (22), 1-28.
2. Calderon, C., Chong, A., & Loayza, N. (2000). Determinants of current account deficits in developing conutries. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 2398, 1-37.
3. Domınguez, K. M. E. (2005). Economics perspective in Singapore. (15.12.2011), http//www.personalumich.edu/kathrynd/SIngapore.
4. Charemza, W. W., & Derek, D. F. ( 1992). New Directions in Econometric Practise General to Spesific Modelling, Cointegration and Vector Autoregressions, England: Edward Elgar Pub.
5. Debelle, G., Faruqee, H. (1996). What Determines the Current Account?, IMF Working Paper, 58, 1-35.
6. Enders, W. (1995). AppliedEconometric Time Series, New York: John Wiley&Sons.
7. Erbaykal, E. (2007). Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme ve döviz kuru cari açık üzerinde etkili midir? Bir nedensellik analizi. ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6, 81–88.
8. Erkılıç, S. (2006). Türkiye’de cari açığın belirleyicileri.(Uzmanlık yeterlilik tezi). Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası İstatistik Genel Müdürlüğü, Ankara.

9. Freund, C. L. (2000). Current Account Adjustment in Industrialized Countries, World Bank-Development Economies Research Group International Finance Discussion Paper, 69, 483-512.
10. Hepaktan, E., & Çınar, S. (2012). OECD ülkelerinde büyüme-cari işlemler dengesi ilişkisi: Panel veri analizi, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 12 (1), 43-58.
11. Kadılar, C. (2005). SPSS uygulamalı zaman serileri analizine giriş, Ankara: Bizim Büro Basımevi.
12. Kandıl, M., & Greene, J. (2002). The ımpact of cyclical factors on the US balance of payments. IMF Working Paper, 45, 1-43.
13. Karagöl, E. T. (2011). Cari açık tartışmaları gölgesinde küresel ekonomik kriz ve türkiye ekonomisi, (15.12.2011), http://www.setav.org/public/HaberDetay.aspx?Dil=tr&hid=91207&q=cari-aciktartismalari-golgesinde-turkiye-ekonomisi.
14. Keatıng, J. (1990). Identifying VAR Models Under Rational Expectations. Journal of Monetary Economics, 25(3), 453 - 476.
15. Kumar, V., Leona, R.P, & Gasking, J. N. (1995). Aggregate and disaggregate sector forecasting using consumer confidence measures, International Journal of Forecasting, 11, 361-377.
16. Maddala, G. S., In-Moo Kim. (1998), Unit Roots, Cointegration and Structural Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
17. MÜSİAD, (2011). Sürdürülebilir büyüme için stratejik dönüşüm, Türkiye Ekonomisi Raporu.
18. Parikh, A., & Stirbu, C. (2004). Relationship Between Trade Liberalisation, Economic Growth and Trade Balance: An Econometric Investigation. HWWA Discussion Paper, No: 282, 1-50.
19. Obstfeld, M., & Kenneth, R. (1996). Foundations of International Macroeconomics, Cambridge: The MIT Press, 1996.
20. Önel, G. (2006). Türkiye’de Dış Borçların Sürdürülebilirliği. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 8 (2), 1-125.
21. Özbek, O. (2008). Ekonomik kriz belirtisi olarak cari açık- büyüme ilişkisi. İZTO AR&GE BÜLTEN 2008 SUBAT – EKONOMİ, 5-11.
22. Özgen, F. B., & Güloğlu, B. (2004). Türkiye’de iç borçların iktisadî etkilerinin VAR tekniğiyle analizi, METU Studies in Development, 31 (June), 93-114.
23. Sachs, J. (1981). The Current Account and Macroeconomic Adjustment in the 1970s, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity; 1, 201-268. (21.02.2012) http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/Programs/ES/BPEA/1981_1_bpea_papers/1981a_bpea_sachs_cooper_fischer.pdf .
24. Şentürk, M., Akbaş, Y.E., & Adıgüzel, U. (2013). Uluslararası ham petrol ve altın fiyatlarının Amerikan doları ile ilişkisi: Ampirik bir uygulama. Akademik Yaklaşımlar Dergisi, 4 (2), 139-149.
25. TCMB, Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistem, http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/TCMB+TR/TCMB+TR/Main+Menu/Istatistikler/Elektronik+Veri+Dagitim+Sistemi+EVDS1
26. Telatar, O.M., & Terzi, Y.E. (2009). Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme ve Cari İşlemler Dengesi İlişkisi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 23 (2), 119-134.
27. Tunalı, Ç.B. (2007). Türkiye cari işlemleri dengesi sorunları, Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi (2), 151-175
28. TÜİK, http://www.tuik.gov.tr/
29. Ünsal, E. M. (2003). Makro İktisat, Ankara: Turhan Kitabevi.
30. Yavuz, A., & Çiçek, H.G. (2006). Türkiye’nin 1994-2005 yılları arasında dış borçların rasyo analizleri ile değerlendirilmesi. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11 (1), 97-120.
31. Yılmaz Ö, & Akıncı, M. (2011). İktisadi büyüme ile cari işlemler bilançosu arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye örneği. Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 15 (2), 363-377.