Assessment of Meteorological and Agricultural Drought Analysis in Kırklareli province

Year 2022, , 756 - 768, 23.12.2022

Fatih Bakanoğulları , Erdem Bahar Cantekin Kıvrak , Mehmet Gür

https://doi.org/10.33462/jotaf.1060752

Cited By: 4

Abstract

The Global warming in the world cause to the climate change in this century. Agriculture is one of the sectors that can be most affected by climate change. Agricultural production is affected by precipitation and temperature variables. Due to the changes in these two parameters, the increase in the temperatures and the changes in the amount of precipitation in parallel with this disrupt the ecological balance and bring along the problems of desertification and drought. Agricultural production is highly dependent on meteorological factors in Thrace region. For this reason, it is expected that changes in climatic factors will affect the agriculture of the region positively or negatively. The aim of this study is to determine the frequency and severity of meteorological and agricultural drought with two indexes between 1963-2019 years in Kırklareli province. Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was used to determine monthly, seasonal, six monthly and annual agricultural drought. According to annual agricultural drought results, it was calculated ten years mild arid (1969, 1985, 1986, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 2011, 2016, and 2019), five years moderate arid (1983, 1989, 1996, 2008, and 2015), one year severe arid (1994), and two years extreme arid (2000 and 2001). Another drought index which is Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to determine meteorological drought. According to annual meteorological drought results, Eight years mild arid (1964, 1969, 1982, 1985, 1986, 1990, 1991, and 2011), seven years moderate arid (1983, 1989, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1996, and 2008), and two years extreme arid (2000, 2001) was figured out. According to linear correlation analysis, a good correlation was obtained for SPI and SPEI values, between annual, six monthly (Spring-Summer), and three monthly only winter and spring periods (R2=0.871, R2=0.901, R2=0.974, and R2=0.919), respectively. In the 57-year observation period; 18 years were determined as the arid year with SPEI index and 67% of these total arid years (12 arid years) occurred and 17 years were determined as the arid year with SPI index and 76% of these total arid years (13 arid years) occurred, between 1982 and 2002 years. The SPEI drought index which use precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration data could give much good results to policy makers in drought mitigation policies in terms of giving results that are more accurate in agricultural production and drought assessments.

Keywords

Climate Change, Drought Indexes, Evapotranspiration, Precipitation, Thrace region

Assessment of Meteorological and Agricultural Drought Analysis in Kırklareli province

Abstract

Dünyadaki küresel ısınma bu yüzyılda iklim değişikliğine neden olmaktadır. Tarım, iklim değişikliğinden en fazla etkilenebilecek sektörlerden biridir. Tarımsal üretim yağış ve sıcaklıktaki değişimlerden etkilenir. Bu iki parametre deki değişimler, sıcaklıkların artması ve buna paralel olarak yağış miktarındaki düzensizlikler ekolojik dengeyi bozmakta, çölleşme ve kuraklık sorunlarını beraberinde getirmektedir. Trakya bölgesinde tarımsal üretim büyük ölçüde meteorolojik faktörlere bağlıdır. Bu nedenle iklim faktörlerindeki değişikliklerin bölge tarımını olumlu veya olumsuz yönde etkilemesi beklenmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Kırklareli ilinde 1963-2019 yılları arasında meteorolojik ve tarımsal kuraklığın sıklığını ve şiddetini iki indeks ile belirlemektir. Aylık, mevsimsel, altı aylık ve yıllık tarımsal kuraklığı belirlemek için Standardize Yağış Evapotranspirasyon İndeksi (SPEI) kullanılmıştır. Yıllık tarımsal kuraklık sonuçlarına göre, on yıl hafif kurak (1969, 1985, 1986, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 2011, 2016 ve 2019), beş yıl orta kurak (1983, 1989, 1996, 2008 ve 2015), bir yıl şiddetli kurak (1994) ve iki yıl aşırı kurak (2000 ve 2001) yıl olarak hesaplanmıştır. Meteorolojik kuraklığı belirlemek için bir diğer kuraklık indeksi olan Standardize Yağış İndeksi (SPI) kullanılmıştır. Yıllık meteorolojik kuraklık sonuçlarına göre, Sekiz yıl hafif kurak (1964, 1969, 1982, 1985, 1986, 1990, 1991 ve 2011), yedi yıl orta kurak (1983, 1989, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1996 ve 2008) ve iki yıl aşırı kurak ( 2000, 2001) yıl olarak hesaplanmıştır. Doğrusal korelasyon analizi sonuçlarına göre, SPI ve SPEI değerleri için yıllık, altı aylık (İlkbahar-Yaz) ve üç aylık sadece kış ve ilkbahar dönemleri arasında sırasıyla (R2=0.871, R2=0.901, R2=0.974 ve R2=0.919) iyi bir korelasyon elde edildi. 57 yıllık gözlem periyodunda SPEI yöntemi ile de 18, SPI yöntemi ile 17 yıl kurak yıl olarak belirlenmiştir. Bu toplam kurak yılların (SPEI 12 yıl) %67 (SPI 13 yıl) %76 gibi büyük bir bölümü 1982 ile 2002 yılları arası meydana gelmiştir. Tarımsal üretim açısından yağış, sıcaklık ve evapotranspirasyon verileri ile hesaplanan SPEI kuraklık indeksi tarımsal üretim ve kuraklık değerlendirmelerinde daha hassas sonuçlar verdiği için kuraklığın azaltılması politikalarında karar vericilere daha iyi değerlendirme imkânı verebilir.

Keywords

İklim Değişikliği, Kuraklık İndeksleri, Evapotranspirasyon, Yağış, Trakya bölgesi

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