Evaluation of the Impacts of Climate Change on Sunflower with Aquacrop Model

Year 2023, , 933 - 947, 25.12.2023

Hüdaverdi Gürkan

https://doi.org/10.33462/jotaf.1240401

Cited By: 2

Abstract

Climate change has become one of the most significant risk factors in agricultural production. Plant productivity declines caused by climate change pose a serious threat to food supply and security. Crop simulation models have been widely used in recent years for the assessment of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production. In Konya, there have been limited studies on the potential effects of climate change on sunflower production. Sunflower, the main crop of the most imported agricultural product group, in which the production amount is currently insufficient to cover domestic consumption demand, is strategically important for the Turkish economy. The goal of this study was to examine the effects of climate change on sunflower yield in Türkiye by using the Aquacrop model. The data of the field experiment carried out on the Ekllor sunflower cultivar for two years in Konya conditions were used as material. The daily projection dataset of three Global Climate Models (HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR, GFDL-ESM2M) and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were used to analyze climate change impacts. The 1971-2000 period was considered as the reference period and the 2022-2098 period was selected as the future period. The results confirmed that the Aquacrop model was able to satisfactorily simulate yield with NRMSE 2.10 % for the rainfed condition and 10.55 % for the irrigated condition, a d-index of 0.97, and a modeling efficiency of 0.91. Aqaucrop climate change impacts simulation which was based on 3 global climate models covering with 2022 -2098 period simulations projected that sunflower yield would be decreased in a range of 21% to 44% for RCP4.5 and 18% to 50% for RCP8.5 scenarios under rainfed conditions. In contrast, the yield would be increased in a range of 11% to 23% for RCP4.5 and 10% to 33% for RCP8.5 scenarios under irrigated conditions. The findings point to the use of appropriate water management measures for future sunflower production as a means of adapting to climate change.

Keywords

Aquacrop, Crop simulation model, Climate change, Sunflower, Crop yield changes

Thanks

The author thanks Prof. Dr. Nilgün Bayraktar, Prof. Dr. Yusuf Ersoy Yildirim (Ankara University Faculty of Agriculture), Dr. Arzu Gündüz (General Directorate of Agricultural Research and Policies), Dr. Hüseyin Bulut, Osman Eskioğlu and, Yusuf Çalık (Turkish State Meteorological Service) for their contributions to the study.

İklim Değişikliğinin Ayçiçeği Üzerine Etkilerinin Aquacrop Modeli ile Değerlendirilmesi

Abstract

İklim değişikliği tarımsal üretim için en önemli risk faktörlerinden biri haline gelmiştir. İklim değişikliğinin neden olduğu bitki verimliliği düşüşleri, gıda arzı ve güvenliği için ciddi bir tehdit oluşturmaktadır. Bitki simülasyon modelleri son yıllarda iklim değişikliğinin tarımsal üretim üzerine etkilerinin değerlendirilmesinde giderek yaygın olarak kullanılmaya başlamıştır. Türkiye’de iklim değişikliğinin tarımsal üretim üzerine olası etkileri ile ilgili çalışma sınırlı sayıdadır. Üretim miktarı henüz iç tüketim talebini karşılayamayan ve en fazla ithalatı yapılan tarımsal ürün gurubunun temel ürünü olan ayçiçeği Türkiye ekonomisi için stratejik öneme sahiptir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de iklim değişikliğinin ayçiçeği verimi üzerine etkilerinin Aquacrop modeli kullanılarak analiz edilmesidir. Konya koşullarında iki yıl süreyle Ekllor ayçiçeği çeşidi üzerine yürütülen tarla denemesine ait veriler materyal olarak kullanılmıştır. İklim değişikliği etki analizi için ise 3 Küresel İklim Modeli (HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR, GFDL-ESM2M) ve 2 senaryoya (RCP4.5 ve RCP8.5) ait günlük veriler kullanılmıştır. 1971 - 2000 dönemi referans, 2022 – 2098 dönemi ise iklim değişikliği etki analizi dönemi olarak ele alınmıştır. Çalışma sonuçları Aquacrop modelinin susuz koşullarda %2.10 ve sulu koşullarda %10.55 NRMSE değeri, 0.97 d-indeks ve 0.91 model etkinliği istatistiksel analizleri ile verimi başarılı bir şekilde simüle edebildiğini ortaya koymuştur. 3 küresel iklim modeli ve 2022-2098 yılları arası dönem özelinde oluşturulan Aquacrop iklim değişikliği projeksiyon sonuçlarına göre ayçiçeği veriminin susuz koşullarda RCP4.5 senaryosuna göre %21-44, RCP8.5 senaryosuna göre ise %18-50 aralığında azalması öngörülmektedir. Bunun aksine sulu koşullarda RCP4.5 senaryosuna göre %11-23, RCP8.5 senaryosuna göre %10-33 aralığında verim artışı sağlanabilecektir. Bulgular, iklim değişikliğine uyum sağlamanın bir yolu olarak gelecekteki ayçiçeği üretimi için uygun su yönetimi uygulamalarının kullanılmasına işaret etmektedir.

Keywords

Aquacrop, Bitki simülasyon modeli, İklim değişikliği, Ayçiçeği, Bitki verim değişimleri

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