Türkiye’de Dış Göç, Tarımsal İstihdam ve Hanehalkı İşgücü İlişkisi

Abstract

Türkiye, en büyük mülteci nüfusuna ev sahipliği yapan ülkelerden biri olmasına rağmen, dış göçün ulusal düzeyde işgücü piyasası ve istihdam yapısı üzerine etkileri konusunda fazla sayıda akademik çalışmanın olmadığı söylenebilir. Bu nedenle çalışma, uluslararası göçün Türkiye’de tarımsal istihdama etkisini ve tarımsal istihdam yapısında yaşanan değişimi ortaya koymak amacıyla yapılmıştır. Türkiye’de yaşanan tarımsal işgücündeki değişimi saptamak ve dış göçün zamansal etkisini ortaya koymak için, 1988-2018 dönemine ait verilerle Johansen Eşbütünleşme ve Granger Nedensellik analizleri yapılmıştır. Eşbütünleşme analizi sonucuna göre, kısa dönemde dış göç miktarındaki artış, tarım alanı miktarını ve tarımsal istihdamı olumsuz etkilerken, tarımsal gayrisafi yurtiçi hasılayı olumlu etkilemektedir. Uzun dönemde ise net göçün, tarımsal alan, tarımsal Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasıla ve tarımsal istihdam üzerine etkileri olumsuzdur. Nedensellik analizi sonucunda ise, göç ile tarımsal gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla arasında tek yönlü bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Göçün kısa vadede tarımsal istihdama olumsuz etkisinin, bu süreç içerisinde istihdamdaki yapının nasıl değişiklik ve gelişim gösterdiğini saptamak için de panel veri analizi yapılmıştır. Panel verileri, 2004-2020 dönemi zaman verilerini, bireyin tarım çalışma durumu, eğitimi, geliri, işte sürekli çalışma ve ek iş yapma durumu ise kesit verilerini oluşturmaktadır. Yapılan Panel Logistik Regresyon Analizi sonucuna göre ise, eğitim düzeyi ve geliri artan birey tarım sektöründen uzaklaşırken, bireyin ek iş yapma isteği kişiyi tarım sektörüne yönlendirmektedir. Bu durumda uluslararası göçün tarımsal istihdamı ve yapısını olumsuz yönde etkilemektedir. Bu nedenle göçmen politikalarında yapılan çalışma düzenlemelerinin sürdürebilirliği sağlanmalıdır. Tarımda çalışmaktan vazgeçen işçilerin farklı sektörlere yönelmesiyle birlikte tarım alanlarının amaç dışı kullanımı söz konusu olmaktadır. Böylece uzun dönemde üretim miktarındaki azalış ve bunun sonucunda da tarımsal GSYİH’yi de olumsuz etkileyebilir. Bu durum farklı çalışmaların konusudur ve yeni çalışmalara altyapı oluşturabilir.

Keywords

• Tarımsal istihdam
• Dış göç
• Zaman serisi
• Panel veri analizi

The Relationship between International Migration, Agricultural Employment, and Household Labor Force in Türkiye

Abstract

There isn't much academic research on the impacts of immigration on the labor market and job structure at the national level, although Türkiye is one of the nation’s hosting the greatest populations of refugees. Because of the scarcity of information, a research gap exists. As a result, the study was carried out to determine the impact of international migration on agricultural employment and the changes in agricultural employment in Türkiye. Johansen Co-integration and Granger Causality analyses were performed on data from 1988 to 2018 to evaluate the change in the agricultural workforce in Türkiye and to demonstrate the temporal influence of immigration. According to the findings of the cointegration study, a rise in emigration has a negative impact on the agricultural areas and agricultural employment while having a good impact on agricultural GDP. Migration has long-term detrimental consequences. According to the causality study, there is a one-way link between migration and agricultural GDP. A panel data analysis was performed to establish the short-term detrimental impact of migration on agricultural employment, as well as how the structure of employment altered and developed during this process. The statistics provide temporal data from 2004 to 2020, and the individual's agricultural employment status, education, income, continuous employment, and extra work status are cross-sectional data. According to the Panel Logistic Regression Analysis results, while more educated and higher income individuals leave away from the agricultural sector, the desire to have a side job leads the individual to the agricultural sector. International migration has a detrimental impact on agricultural employment and its structure in this scenario. As a result, the sustainability of the working arrangements established by immigration regulations should be assured, and limits and constraints should be implemented, particularly in the agricultural sector. When agricultural employees transition to other industries, agricultural areas are being used in ways that were not planned. As a result, in the long run, the decline in output may have a negative impact on agricultural GDP. This condition has been the topic of several research and may serve as the foundation for new ones.

Keywords

• Agriculture employment
• emigration
• time series analysis
• panel data analysis

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