İklim Değişikliği ve Covid-19 Salgını Koşullarında İçme Sütü Tüketim Tercihlerinin Modellenmesi

Year 2024, , 619 - 633, 27.05.2024

Yavuz Topcu

https://doi.org/10.33462/jotaf.1312996

Abstract

Son yıllarda yaşanan iklim değişikliği ve Covid-19 salgını, sadece gıda arz zinciri üzerinde değil aynı zamanda tüketicilerin tüketim tercihi ve satın alma kararları üzerinde de dramatik bir şekilde ters bir etkiye neden olmakta ve bu yüzden mevcut ve gelecek jenerasyonların refahlarını da tehdit etmektedir. Araştırmanın amacı, TRA1 bölgesinde tüketicilerin süt tüketim tercihi ve satın alma kararını etkileyen faktörlerin belirlenmesi, daha sonra bu faktörlere dayalı olarak birinci ve ikinci düzey tercih modellerini oluşturmak ve son olarak da bu modellerin geçerliliklerini test etmektedir. Bu amaçlar için çalışmanın ana materyali TRA1 bölgesinde 765 hane halkından toplanan birincil veriler kullanılmıştır. Bu veriler öncelikle faktör boyutlarını belirlemek için Keşfedici Faktör Analizinde (EFA) ve daha sonra ise birinci ve ikinci düzey çok faktörlü ölçüm modelleri için Doğrulayıcı Faktör Analizlerinde (CFA) kullanılmıştır. Araştırmanın sonuçları, CFA modelde her bir faktör boyutunun yakınsama ve ayrışma geçerliliği, model uyum ve karşılaştırma kritik değerlerine göre kabul edildiğini göstermiştir. Diğer taraftan sonuçlar; tüketicilerin süt tüketim tercihi ve satın alma kararı üzerinde hijyen, duyusal kalite ve güvenirlilik faktörlerinin daha yüksek bir seviyede, fakat marka imajı, endişe ve besin değeri faktörlerinin ise daha ılımlı bir seviyede ve süt temin kaynağının minimum bir seviyede temel göstergeler olduğuna işaret etmiştir. Gerçekten de tüketicilerin süt tüketim modellerinde iklim değişikliği ve Covid-19 salgını değişkenlerini içeren endişe faktörleri dışındaki bütün faktörler ile pozitif ilişkilere sahiptir, ancak endişe faktörü diğerleri üzerinde negatif bir etki yaratmıştır. Sonuç olarak, hayvansal kaynaklı süt diyeti tüketiminin azaltılması, kademeli olarak orta derecede karma bitkisel bazlı süt kaynaklarına aktarılarak ve ardından da süt tüketimiyle ilgili yeni ulusal diyet programlarının hazırlanarak iklim değişikliğinin etkilerinin azaltılmasına nispeten katkıda bulunulabilir.

Keywords

CFA, İklim değişikliği, Covid-19 salgını, Uyum iyiliği istatistiği, Süt tüketim modeli

Modeling Drinking Milk Consumption Preferences under Climate Change and the Covid-19 Pandemics Conditions

Abstract

Climate changes and Covid-19 pandemic have dramatically led to adverse impacts on not only the food supply chains but also consumers’ consumption preferences and purchase decisions in the last decade, and thus they have gradually threatened the welfare of current and next generations. The aim of the research was to determine the factors affecting consumers’ milk consumption preference and purchase decisions at TRA1 region in Turkey, and then to construct the first and second-order consumption preference models based on the factors, and finally to test validation of the models. For the purposes, the main data of the study consisted of primary data obtained from 765 households residing in TRA1 region. The data were firstly used in Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) to determine factor dimensions, and then in Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) for first and second-order multi-factor measurement models. The results of the study indicated that convergent and discriminant validities for each factor dimension in the CFA model were accepted by according to the compare and goodness-of-fit test threshold criteria. On the other hand, the results also highlighted that hygiene, sensory quality, and reliability factors at a higher level, and brand image, concern and nutrition value factors at a moderate level and milk supply source factor at a minimum level were major indicators on consumers’ milk consumption preferences and purchase decisions. All the factors out of concern factor covering the variables related to climate change and Covid-19 pandemic were of positive relationships on their milk consumption pattern, indeed, but concern factor created the negative impacts on the others. Consequently, contraction of animal-based milk diet consumption could be relatively contributed to mitigate the effects of climate change by being transited gradually to moderate-mixed plant-based milk sources, and then to preparation of new national diet programs related to milk consumption.

Keywords

CFA, Climate change, Covid-19 pandemic, Goodness of fit test, Milk consumption pattern

References

• Alegbeleye, O. O., Guimaraes, J. T., Cruz, A. G. and Sant’Ana, A. S. (2018). Hazard of a health trend: an appraisal of the risk of raw milk consumption and the potential of novel treatment technologies to serve as alternatives to pasteurization. Trend in Food Science and Technology, 82: 148-166.
• Arumugan, S., Ozkan, B., Jayaraman, A. and Mockaisamy, P. (2021). Impacts of Covid-19 pandemic on global agriculture, livelihoods and food system. Journal of Agricultural Science, 27(3): 239-246.
• Azabağaoğlu, M. Ö., Abdikoğlu, D. İ. and Unakıtan, G. (2016). Consumer’s fish purchase behavior in Tekirdag. Journal of Tekirdag Agricultural Faculty, 13(4): 145- 151.
• Bentivoglio, D., Finco, A., Bucci, G. and Staffolani, G. (2020). Is there a promising market for the A2 milk? Analysis of Italian consumer preferences. Sustainability, 12: 6763.
• Berge, A. C. and Baars, T. (2020). Raw milk producers with high levels of hygiene and safety. Epidemiology and Infection, 148 (e14): 1-7.
• Boncinelli, F., Gerini, F., Neri, B. and Casini, L. (2018). Consumer willingness to pay for non-mandatory indication of the fish catch zone. Agribusiness, 34(4): 728-741.
• Bus, A. E. M. and Worsley, A. (2002). Consumers’ sensory and nutritional perceptions of three types of milk. Public Health Nutrition, 6(2): 201-208.
• Cavallo, G., Sacchi, G. and Carfora, V. (2020). Resilience effects in food consumption behavior at the time of Covid-19: Perspectives from Italy. Heliyon, 6: e05676.
• Chenarides, L., Grebitus, C. and Lusk, J. (2020). Food consumption behavior during the Covid-19 pandemic. Agribusiness, 37: 44-81.
• Civelek, M. E. (2020). Methodology of Structural Equation Modelling (Second Edition). Beta Basım ve Yayım A.Ş., İstanbul.
• CLAL (2021). An overview of annual per capita consumption of fluid milk. https://www.clal.it/en/?section=tabs_consumi_procapite (Accessed Date: 15.10.2021).
• Delley, M. and Thomas, A. B. (2019). A segmentation of Swiss fluid milk consumers and suggestions for target product concepts. Journal of Dairy Sciences, 103: 3095-3106.
• Eftimov, T., Popovski, G., Petkovic, M. and Seljak, B. K. (2020). Covid-19 pandemic changes the food consumption patterns. Trend in Food Science Technology, 104: 268-272.
• Gerber, P. J, Steinfeld, H., Henderson, B., Mottet, A., Opio, C., Dijkman, J., Falcucci, A. and Tempio, G. (2013). Tackling Climate Change Through Livestock-A Global Assessment of Emissions and Mitigation Opportunities, FAO, Roma.
• Graham, T. and Abrahamse, W. (2017). Communicating the climate impacts of meat consumption: The effect of values and message framing. Environment Change, 44: 98-108.
• Guo, Q., Wang, B., Cao, S., Jia, C., Yu, X., Zhao, L., Dellarco, M. and Duan, X. (2020). Association between milk intake and childhood growth: results from a nationwide cross-sectional survey. International Journal of Obesity, 44: 2194-2202.
• Gürbüz, S. (2019). Structural Equation Modelling with AMOS. Seçkin Akademik ve Mesleki Yayınlar, Ankara. Harguess, C. and Hong, Y. (2020). Strategies to reduce meat consumption: A systematic literature review of experimental studies. Appetite, 144: 2-10.
• Hassan, T. B., Bilali, H. and Allahyari, M. S. (2020). Impact of Covid-19 on food behavior and consumption in Qatar. Sustainability, 12: 69-73.
• Jawhara, S. (2020). Can drinking micro-filtered raw immune milk from cows immunized against SARS-CoV-2 provide short-term protection against COVID-19? Front Immunology, 28(11): 1888.
• Karagöz, Y. (2020). Scientific research methods: SPSS and AMOS applications. Nobel Yayıncılık, Ankara. Kleemann, S. and Schmidt, U. J. (2017). Reducing meat consumption in developed and transition countries to counter climate change and biodiversity loss: A review of influence factors. Regional Environmental Change, 17: 1261-1277.
• Konyalı, S. (2019). The sugar consumption tendencies of university students: The case of Tekirdağ Namık Kemal University. Journal of Tekirdag Agricultural Faculty, 16(2): 163-172.
• Li, J., Abbasi, A., Cheema, A. and Abraham, L. B. (2020). Path to purpose? How online customer journeys differ for hedonic vs utilitarian purchases. Journal of Marketing, 84 (4): 127-146.
• Li, S., Kallas, Z. and Rahmani, D. (2022). Did the Covid-19 lockdown affect consumers’ sustainable behavior in food purchasing and consumption in China? Food Control, 132: 108352.
• Malhotra, N. K. (1996). Marketing Research an Applied Orientation. Prentice Hall Inc., New Jersey. Marchini, A., Riganelli, C., Diotallevi, F. and Polenzani, B. (2021). Label information and consumers behavior: evidence on drinking milk sector. Agricultural Food Economics, 9(8): 1-24.
• Marsh, H. W., Balla, J. R. and Mcdonald, R. P. (1988). Goodness of fit indexes in Confirmatory Factor Analysis: The effect of sample size. Psychical Bulletin, 103: 391-410.
• Martinez, U. J., Mediano, J. and Rodriguez, A. L. (2021). The impact of the Covid-19 crisis on consumer purchasing motivation and behavior. European Research Management and Business Economics, 24 (3): 19-37.
• Meydan, C. H. and Şeşen, H. (2015). Structural Equation Modelling and AMOS Applications (Second Edition). Detay Yayıncılık, Ankara.
• Moatsou, G. and Sakkas, L. (2019). Sheep milk components: focus on nutritional advantages and bio-functional potential. Small Ruminant Research, 180: 86-99.
• Neff, D., Edwards, A., Palmer, R., Ramsing Righter, A. and Wolfson, J. (2018). Reducing meat consumption in the USA: A nationally representative survey of attitudes and behaviors. Public Health Nutrition, 21(10): 1835-1844.
• Ocak, M. (2020). Step to step Structural Equation Modelling with AMOS. Ekin Press Publish Distribution, İstanbul.
• Ouyang, H., Li, B., McCarthy, M., Miao, S., Kilcawley, K., Fenelon, M., Kelly, A. and Sheehan, J. (2021). Understanding preferences for, and consumer behavior toward, cheese among a cohort of young, educated, internationally mobile Chinese consumers. Journal of Dairy Science, 104(12): 12415-12426.
• Patil, V. H., Singh, S. N., Mishra, S. and Donavan, D. T. (2007). Parallel analysis engine to aid determining number of factors to retain [Computer 23*software]. Retrieved from http://smishra.faculty.ku.edu/parallelengine.htm, Utility developed as part of Patil, V.H., Singh, S.N., Mishra, S. Donavan, D.T. (2008). Efficient theory development and factor retention criteria: A Case for Abandoning the eigenvalue greater than one criterion. Journal of Business Research, 61(2): 162-170.
• Perez, E. V. B., Faber, I., Osorio, J. S. and Stergiadis, S. (2020). Consumer knowledge and perceptions of milk fat in Denmark, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Journal of Dairy Science, 103: 4151-4163.
• Perito, M. A., Sacchetti, G., Di Mattia, C. D., Chiodo, E., Pittia, P., Saguy, I. S. and Cohen, E. (2019). Buy local! Familiarity and preferences for extra virgin olive oil of Italian consumers. Journal of Food Product Marketing, 25(4): 462-477.
• Picot, K., Krey, N., Huré, E. and Ackermann, C. L. (2021). Still work and/or fun? Corroboration of the hedonic and utilitarian shopping value scale. Business Research, 126: 578-590.
• Rana, J. and Paul, J. (2017). Consumer behavior and purchase intention for organic food: A review and research agenda. Journal of Retailing Consumer Service, 38: 157-165.
• Rihn, A., Wei, X. and Khachatryan, H. (2019). Text vs. logo: does eco-label format influence consumers’ visual attention and willingness-to-pay for fruit plants? An experimental auction approach. Journal of Behavior Expectation Economics, 82: 101452.
• Ritchie, H., Reay, D.S. and Higgins, P. (2018). The impact of global dietary guidelines on climate change. Global Environmental Change, 49: 46–55.
• Sabate, R. and Sabate, J. (2019). Consumer attitudes towards environmental concerns of meat consumption: A systematic review. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 16 (9): 3-37.
• Shamim, K., Ahmad, S. and Alam, M. A. (2021). Covid-19 health safety practices: Influence on grocery shopping behavior. Journal of Public Affairs, 21(4): e2644.
• Skalkos, D., Kosma, I. S., Vasiliou, A. and Guine, R. P. F. (2021). Consumers’ trust in Greek traditional food in the post Covid-19 era. Sustainability, 13: 9975.
• Slade, P., Michler, J. D. and Josephson, A. (2019). Foreign GI, consumer preferences, and the domestic market for cheese. Applied Economics Perspective Policy, 41(3): 370-390.
• Topcu, Y. (2015). Turkish consumer decisions affecting ice cream consumption. Italian Journal of Food Science, 27 (1): 29-39.
• Topcu, Y. (2019a). Consumers’ consumption patterns towards drinking milk with the region of origin: Case of Igdir province. ÇOMÜ Agriculture Faculty Journal, 7(1): 195-205.
• Topcu, Y. (2019b). Determing product profiles based on consumers’ consumption satisfaction towards drinking milk with the region of origin: Case of Igdır province. Anadolu Agriculture Science Journal, 34 (3): 268-278.
• Verain, M. C., Sijtsema, S. J., Dagevos, H. and Antonides, G. (2017). Attribute segmentation and communication effects on healthy and sustainable consumer diet intentions. Sustainability, 9 (5): 730-743.
• Yin, S., Ly, S., Chen, Y., Wu, L., Chen, M. and Yan, J. (2018). Consumer preference for infant milk-based formula with select food safety information attributes: evidence from a choice experiment in China. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 66(4): 557-569.