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Future of Fig Product in Turkey

Year 2018, Volume: 15 Issue: 2, 138 - 146, 15.05.2018

Abstract

The aim of this study is
to predict the future of figs product taking into account twenty-four years of fig production in Turkey.
Figs are a very important product in Turkey's foreign trade. 23% of the world’s
fig productions are provided by Turkey. In 60 of the 81 provinces in Turkey is
done fig production. The total fig production’s approximately 86% is getting
five provinces in Turkey. These provinces are Aydin, Izmir, Bursa, Mersin and
Hatay respectively.  ARIMA model used to
forecast of fig production quantity during the period 2015 to 2023 in Turkey.
According to findings of this study, it is forecasted that Turkey’s fig
production will decrease during the period 2015 to 2023. The results obtained
from this study will help to producers, policy makers and consumers in Turkey.

References

  • Abdullah L (2012). ARIMA model for gold bullion coin selling prices forecasting. IJAAS 1(4): 153-158.
  • Anonymous (2015a). The ARIMA Models. Retrieved in February, 07, 2015 from
  • Anonymous (2015b). Dry Fig Annual Report, 2013. Customs and Trade Ministry. General Directorate of Cooperatives in February, 2014.
  • Anonymous (2015c). Aegean Dried Fruits and Products Exporters' Union. Retrieved in February, 05, 2015 from
  • Bal E (2012). Effect of postharvest UV-C treatments on quality attributes of fresh fig. Bulgarian J Agric Sci 18(2): 191-196.
  • Box GEP, Jenkins GM (1970). Statistical Models for Forecasting and Control. Holden Day, San Francisco.
  • Bulbul S Atil H & Hepaksoy S (1997). A general study of commercial dried fig production in the Big Meander Valley of Turkey. In I International Symposium on Fig 480: 317-320.
  • Cobanoglu F, Kocatas H, Ozen M, Tutmuş E & Konak R (2007). An evaluation of approach in determination of climate factors impact on dried fig exportation in Turkey J Fac Agric OMU, 22(1): 11-19.
  • Eriten A (2005). Estimates of demand relationships for figs and figs products in Turkey. Middle East Technical University, Graduate School of Social Sciences, Master Thesis, Ankara.
  • FAO (2015). Classifications and standarts. Retrieved in February, 05, 2015 from
  • Finley JW (2005). Proposed criteria for assessing the efficacy of cancer reduction by plant foods enriched in carotenoids, glucosinolates, polyphenols and seleno compounds. Annals of Botany 95(7): 1075-1096.
  • Flaishman MA, Rover V & Stover E (2008). The fig: botany, horticulture and breeding. Hort Rev 34: 113-197.
  • Hiwale S (2015). Fig (Ficus carica). In Sustainable Horticulture in Semiarid Dry Lands. Springer India p 159-175.
  • ITC (2015). Trade of fig. Retrieved in February, 05, 2015 from
  • Joseph B & Raj SJ (2011). Pharmacognostic and phytochemical properties of Ficus carica Linn–An overview. Int J PharmTech Res 3(1): 8-12.
  • Kocatas H (2014). Determination of the effects of chilling periods of some fig cultivars and hydrogen cyanamide (H2CN2). treatment on earliness. Adnan Menderes University Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Master Thesis, Aydin, Turkey.
  • Moharrampour M, Sohrabi S & Vakili J (2013). Comparison of Support Vector Machines (SVM). and Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). in daily flow forecasting. SCIJOUR 1(1): 1-10.
  • Mombeini H & Yazdani-Chamzini A (2014). Developing a new approach for forecasting the trends of oil price. BMR 4 (3): 120-132.
  • Patil Vikas V, Bhangale S C & Patil V R (2010). Evaluation of anti-pyretic potential of ficus carica leaves. IJPSR 2(2): 48-50.
  • Ramesh D, Bhattacharyya B & Biswas R (2014). Forecasting of maize production in Andhra Pradesh by ARIMA modeling. Environ Ecol 32 (4B): 1709-1713.
  • Silva L C, Harder M N, Arthur P B, Lima R B, Modlo D M & Arthur V (2009). Physical-chemical characteristics of figs (Ficus carica). preready to submitted to ionizing radiation. International Nuclear Atlantic Conference, ISBN: 978-85-99141-03-8.
  • Stover E, Aradhya M, Ferguson L & Crisosto C H (2007). The fig: overview of an ancient fruit. HortScience 42(5): 1083-1087.
  • Teoh T T, Cho S Y& Nguwi Y Y (2012). Emotional prediction using time series multiple-regression genetic algorithm for autistic syndrome disorder. In Computer ICCSE, 2012 7th International Conference on p. 9-12.
  • Turhan S, Nargelecekenler M & Cetin B (2013). A hedonic analysis of Bursa's Black Fig bid prices and product quality characteristics in Turkey. JFAE 11(1): 264-267.
  • Turk R (1988). Effects of harvest time and precooling on fruit quality and cold storage of figs. In International Symposium on Postharvest Handling of Fruit and Vegetables. 258: 279-286.
  • TURKSTAT (2015). Turkish Statistical Institute. Retrieved in February, 03, 2015 from
  • Vinson JA (1999). The functional food properties of figs. Cereal Food World 4: 82-87.
  • Vinson JA, Zubik L, Bose P, Samman N & Proch J (2005). Dried fruits: excellent in vitro and in vivo antioxidants. JACN 4: 44-50.
  • Wasseja M M & Mwenda S N (2015). Analysis of the volatility of the electricity price in Kenya using autoregressive integrated moving average model. SJAMS, 3(2): 47-57.
  • Yavuz F, Bilgic A, Terin M & Guler I O (2013). Policy implications of trends in Turkey's meat sector with respect to 2023 vision. Meat Science 95(4): 798-804.

Türkiye'de İncir Üretiminin Geleceği

Year 2018, Volume: 15 Issue: 2, 138 - 146, 15.05.2018

Abstract

Bu
çalışmanın amacı 24 yıllık veriler dikkate alınarak Türkiye'de incir üretiminin
gelecek yıllardaki tahmininin belirlenmesidir. İncir üretimi Türkiye'nin dış
ticaretinde önemli bir yere sahiptir. Türkiye Dünya incir üretiminin %23'ünü
karşılamaktadır. Türkiye'nin 81 ilinin 60'ında incir üretimi yapılmaktadır.
Türkiye’de incir üretiminin %86'sı 5 il tarafından karşılanmaktadır. Bu iller 
Aydın, İzmir,
Bursa, Mersin ve Hatay'dır. Türkiye'de 2015-2023 arasında incir üretiminin
tahminini belirlemede ARİMA modeli kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlara göre Türkiye'de
incir üretimi gelecekte azalacaktır. Bu çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlar
politika yapıcılarına yön verecektir.

References

  • Abdullah L (2012). ARIMA model for gold bullion coin selling prices forecasting. IJAAS 1(4): 153-158.
  • Anonymous (2015a). The ARIMA Models. Retrieved in February, 07, 2015 from
  • Anonymous (2015b). Dry Fig Annual Report, 2013. Customs and Trade Ministry. General Directorate of Cooperatives in February, 2014.
  • Anonymous (2015c). Aegean Dried Fruits and Products Exporters' Union. Retrieved in February, 05, 2015 from
  • Bal E (2012). Effect of postharvest UV-C treatments on quality attributes of fresh fig. Bulgarian J Agric Sci 18(2): 191-196.
  • Box GEP, Jenkins GM (1970). Statistical Models for Forecasting and Control. Holden Day, San Francisco.
  • Bulbul S Atil H & Hepaksoy S (1997). A general study of commercial dried fig production in the Big Meander Valley of Turkey. In I International Symposium on Fig 480: 317-320.
  • Cobanoglu F, Kocatas H, Ozen M, Tutmuş E & Konak R (2007). An evaluation of approach in determination of climate factors impact on dried fig exportation in Turkey J Fac Agric OMU, 22(1): 11-19.
  • Eriten A (2005). Estimates of demand relationships for figs and figs products in Turkey. Middle East Technical University, Graduate School of Social Sciences, Master Thesis, Ankara.
  • FAO (2015). Classifications and standarts. Retrieved in February, 05, 2015 from
  • Finley JW (2005). Proposed criteria for assessing the efficacy of cancer reduction by plant foods enriched in carotenoids, glucosinolates, polyphenols and seleno compounds. Annals of Botany 95(7): 1075-1096.
  • Flaishman MA, Rover V & Stover E (2008). The fig: botany, horticulture and breeding. Hort Rev 34: 113-197.
  • Hiwale S (2015). Fig (Ficus carica). In Sustainable Horticulture in Semiarid Dry Lands. Springer India p 159-175.
  • ITC (2015). Trade of fig. Retrieved in February, 05, 2015 from
  • Joseph B & Raj SJ (2011). Pharmacognostic and phytochemical properties of Ficus carica Linn–An overview. Int J PharmTech Res 3(1): 8-12.
  • Kocatas H (2014). Determination of the effects of chilling periods of some fig cultivars and hydrogen cyanamide (H2CN2). treatment on earliness. Adnan Menderes University Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Master Thesis, Aydin, Turkey.
  • Moharrampour M, Sohrabi S & Vakili J (2013). Comparison of Support Vector Machines (SVM). and Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). in daily flow forecasting. SCIJOUR 1(1): 1-10.
  • Mombeini H & Yazdani-Chamzini A (2014). Developing a new approach for forecasting the trends of oil price. BMR 4 (3): 120-132.
  • Patil Vikas V, Bhangale S C & Patil V R (2010). Evaluation of anti-pyretic potential of ficus carica leaves. IJPSR 2(2): 48-50.
  • Ramesh D, Bhattacharyya B & Biswas R (2014). Forecasting of maize production in Andhra Pradesh by ARIMA modeling. Environ Ecol 32 (4B): 1709-1713.
  • Silva L C, Harder M N, Arthur P B, Lima R B, Modlo D M & Arthur V (2009). Physical-chemical characteristics of figs (Ficus carica). preready to submitted to ionizing radiation. International Nuclear Atlantic Conference, ISBN: 978-85-99141-03-8.
  • Stover E, Aradhya M, Ferguson L & Crisosto C H (2007). The fig: overview of an ancient fruit. HortScience 42(5): 1083-1087.
  • Teoh T T, Cho S Y& Nguwi Y Y (2012). Emotional prediction using time series multiple-regression genetic algorithm for autistic syndrome disorder. In Computer ICCSE, 2012 7th International Conference on p. 9-12.
  • Turhan S, Nargelecekenler M & Cetin B (2013). A hedonic analysis of Bursa's Black Fig bid prices and product quality characteristics in Turkey. JFAE 11(1): 264-267.
  • Turk R (1988). Effects of harvest time and precooling on fruit quality and cold storage of figs. In International Symposium on Postharvest Handling of Fruit and Vegetables. 258: 279-286.
  • TURKSTAT (2015). Turkish Statistical Institute. Retrieved in February, 03, 2015 from
  • Vinson JA (1999). The functional food properties of figs. Cereal Food World 4: 82-87.
  • Vinson JA, Zubik L, Bose P, Samman N & Proch J (2005). Dried fruits: excellent in vitro and in vivo antioxidants. JACN 4: 44-50.
  • Wasseja M M & Mwenda S N (2015). Analysis of the volatility of the electricity price in Kenya using autoregressive integrated moving average model. SJAMS, 3(2): 47-57.
  • Yavuz F, Bilgic A, Terin M & Guler I O (2013). Policy implications of trends in Turkey's meat sector with respect to 2023 vision. Meat Science 95(4): 798-804.
There are 30 citations in total.

Details

Journal Section Articles
Authors

Ahmet Semih Uzundumlu

Muhammet Emre Öksüz This is me

Seval Kurtoğlu This is me

Publication Date May 15, 2018
Submission Date February 15, 2017
Acceptance Date February 28, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2018 Volume: 15 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Uzundumlu, A. S., Öksüz, M. E., & Kurtoğlu, S. (2018). Türkiye’de İncir Üretiminin Geleceği. Tekirdağ Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, 15(2), 138-146.
AMA Uzundumlu AS, Öksüz ME, Kurtoğlu S. Türkiye’de İncir Üretiminin Geleceği. JOTAF. May 2018;15(2):138-146.
Chicago Uzundumlu, Ahmet Semih, Muhammet Emre Öksüz, and Seval Kurtoğlu. “Türkiye’de İncir Üretiminin Geleceği”. Tekirdağ Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi 15, no. 2 (May 2018): 138-46.
EndNote Uzundumlu AS, Öksüz ME, Kurtoğlu S (May 1, 2018) Türkiye’de İncir Üretiminin Geleceği. Tekirdağ Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi 15 2 138–146.
IEEE A. S. Uzundumlu, M. E. Öksüz, and S. Kurtoğlu, “Türkiye’de İncir Üretiminin Geleceği”, JOTAF, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 138–146, 2018.
ISNAD Uzundumlu, Ahmet Semih et al. “Türkiye’de İncir Üretiminin Geleceği”. Tekirdağ Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi 15/2 (May 2018), 138-146.
JAMA Uzundumlu AS, Öksüz ME, Kurtoğlu S. Türkiye’de İncir Üretiminin Geleceği. JOTAF. 2018;15:138–146.
MLA Uzundumlu, Ahmet Semih et al. “Türkiye’de İncir Üretiminin Geleceği”. Tekirdağ Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 15, no. 2, 2018, pp. 138-46.
Vancouver Uzundumlu AS, Öksüz ME, Kurtoğlu S. Türkiye’de İncir Üretiminin Geleceği. JOTAF. 2018;15(2):138-46.