The Effects of Fiscal Amnesty Programs on the Tax System in Türkiye

Abstract

Obligations that are not fulfilled by economic actors can be removed through legal regulations. This is called fiscal amnesty in the literature and involves the removal or softening of the sanctions economic actors will face. This study aims to empirically investigate the impact of fiscal amnesty programs on collected and acquired public revenues. Data for the sample of Türkiye’s 81 provinces used in the study were drawn from the period of 2004-2020. The study uses the developed data set to evaluate the effects of six fiscal amnesties, each of which had a different scope, on the tax system. The results show the fiscal amnesty program to have had positive short-term effects on accrual and collection amounts. However, tax amnesties were especially seen to negatively affect the amounts collected over the long run. Additionally, amnesty programs have both short- and long-term effects on the accrual rate, one of the macroeconomic measures of tax compliance. The results also show the short-term beneficial effects on the tax system to decline and the long-term adverse consequences to rise with repeated tax amnesties. One can describe the benefits and drawbacks of financial amnesties at both the micro and macro dimensions due to the study’s methodology and findings, and in this regard, the study offers an empirical basis for both short-term and long-term policy recommendations.

Keywords

• Vergi Affı
• Mali Af Programları
• Mali Yapılandırma
• Vergi Sistemi
• Panel Veri Analizi.

Türkiye’de Mali Af Programlarının Vergi Sistemi Üzerindeki Etkileri

Öz

Ekonomik aktörlerce yerine getirilmeyen yükümlülüklerin bir kısmı ya da tamamı hukuki düzenlemeler aracılığıyla kaldırılabilir. Literatürde mali af olarak anılan bu düzenlemeler, ekonomik aktörlerin karşılaşılacağı yaptırımların kaldırılmasını veya hafifletilmesini ifade etmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, mali af programlarının belirli bir dönemde tahakkuk eden ve tahsil edilen kamu gelirleri üzerinde oluşturduğu etkileri ampirik olarak belirlemektir. Araştırma sürecinde Türkiye’deki 81 il örnekleminde 2004 ile 2020 yılları arasındaki dönem esas alınmıştır. Oluşturulan veri seti aracılığıyla farklı kapsamlarla uygulamaya konulan altı mali affın vergi sistemi üzerindeki etkileri sınanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre belirli bir dönemdeki mali af programı tahsil ve tahakkuk tutarlarını kısa dönemde pozitif etkilemektedir. Uzun dönemde ise vergi aflarının özellikle tahsil tutarları üzerinde negatif yönlü etkisi vardır. Bunun yanında af programları, vergi uyumunun makro ekonomik ölçekteki göstergelerinden biri olan tahsil-tahakkuk oranını da hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde etkilemektedir. Yine bulgulara göre, tekrar eden vergi afları ile vergi sistemi üzerindeki kısa dönemli genişletici etkiler azalmakta, buna karşılık uzun dönemli negatif etkiler ise artmaktadır. Çalışmada kullanılan yöntem ve elde edilen sonuçlar, mali afların mikro ve makro ölçekteki olumlu ve olumsuz etkilerinin betimlenebilmesine olanak vermektedir. Bu yönüyle çalışma, kısa ve uzun vadede izlenecek politikalar için görgül bir öneri zemini sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Vergi affı
• mali af programları
• mali yapılandırma
• vergi sistemi
• panel veri analizi

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