Bayesçi ANOVA(BANOVA): Ankara’da Hava Kirliliği Üzerine Bir Uygulama

Abstract

Bayesçi yaklaşım, klasik istatistik yaklaşımının aksine önsel dağılım bilgisi yardımı ile sonsal dağılımı tahmin eden bir yöntemdir. BANOVA gibi yöntemlerde p-değeri yerine farklı Bayesçi kriterlere göre yokluk hipotezi için karar verilir. BANOVA modelinde sadece genel ortalama terimin mi yer alacağı ya da deneme etkisinin yer aldığı model mi geçerlidir araştırmasında, Bayesçi faktör (BF)’e bakılarak yokluk hipotezi ile seçenek hipotezi karşılaştırılarak hangisi için daha güçlü bir kanıt varsa ona göre karar verilir. BF ile verilen bu karar aşaması deneme etkisinin anlamlı olup olmadığına dair elimizde ne kadar güçlü bir kanıt olup olmadığını ortaya koyan ANOVA’dan daha detaylı bir çıkarsamadır. Bu çalışmada Çevre ve Şehircilik Bakanlığı Ulusal Hava Kalitesi İzleme Sisteminden alınan Ocak-Aralık 2018 dönemine ait Ankara iline ait sekiz istasyondan alınmış PM10, PM2,5 ve SO2 değerlerine göre istasyonlar arası farklılık BANOVA ile analiz edilmiş ve sonuçlar yorumlanmıştır.

Keywords

• BANOVA
• Bayes Faktörü
• ANOVA
• Hava Kirliliği

Bayesian ANOVA(BANOVA): An Application on Air Pollution in Ankara

Abstract

Bayesian approach is a posterior prediction method via a priori distribution knowledge on the contrary to classical methods. In the methods like BANOVA, Bayesian criteria are employed for the null hypothesis instead of the p-value. The question of whether only the overall mean term will represent the ANOVA model or whether the treatment effect will be added is answered with the Bayesian (BF). According to the BF, the null hypothesis is compared to the alternative hypothesis, and which model has stronger evidence is given accordingly. This decision step with the BF, which reveals how strong evidence we have about whether the treatment effect is significant or not, is a more detailed inference than classical ANOVA. In this study, the BANOVA method is applied to PM10, PM2,5, and SO2 data from eight stations of the province of Ankara for the period January-December 2018, taken from the National Air Quality Monitoring System of the Ministry of Environment and Urbanization. Whether there is any difference between stations is analyzed and conclusions are made.

Keywords

• BANOVA
• ANOVA
• Bayes Factor
• Air Pollution

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