Meteorolojik parametreler ile COVID-19 vakalarının yayılması arasındaki ilişkinin istatistiksel bir analizi: Türkiye ve İtalya karşılaştırması

Year 2020, Volume: 1 Issue: 2, 76 - 84, 31.12.2020

Yasemin Ayaz Atalan , Abdulkadir Atalan

Abstract

Bu çalışma, meteorolojik parametrelerin Türkiye ve İtalya ülkelerinde korona virüsün yayılmasına etkilerini istatistiksel olarak incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Veri analizi için çok faktörlü ANOVA testi bu çalışmada kullanılmıştır. Türkiye için COVID-19 aktif vakalarına ait veriler, 10 Mart 2020 (ilk vaka olayı) ile 3 Mayıs 2020 arasındaki 55 günlük ve İtalya için COVID-19 aktif vakalarına ait veriler, 25 Şubat 2020 ile 3 Mayıs 2020 arasındaki 69 günlük verileri kapsamaktadır. Bu çalışmada, meteoroloji parametreleri olarak ortalama sıcaklık (0C), nem (%), rüzgâr (mph) ve basınç (Hg) faktörleri ele alınmıştır. Meteorolojik parametre verileri, Türkiye'nin en kalabalık şehirlerindeki her bir parametreye ait verilerin ortalaması ile İtalya’nın en kalabalık iki şehrine (Roma ve Milan) ait veriler dikkate alınmıştır. Varyans analizi kullanılarak COVID-19 vakalarına ait verileri (Türkiye için R2 = 0.307; F-oranı = 5.6581 prob> .0008, 55 gözlem ve İtalya için R2= 0.437; F-ratio=3.6581 prob> .0182, 69 gözlem) en yüksek düzeyde önemli ölçüde analiz edilmiştir. Meteoroloji parametreleri arasında yer alan ortalama sıcaklık (°C) (t-oranı = 3.12; p <0.05) önemli ölçüde ve nem (%) faktörü (t-oranı =-1.186; p <0.10) şartlı olarak Türkiye’deki COVID-19 salgınını etkilediği gözlemlenmiştir. Ayrıca, İtalya için hem nem (%) (t-ratio=-1,38; p<0.0172) hem de rüzgâr (mph) (t-ratio=-2,57; p<0.0125) parametrelerinin COVID-19 salgınında önemli rol oynadığı tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

COVID-19, Anova, Sıcaklık, Nem, Rüzgâr, Basınç

A Statistical Analysis of the Relationship Between Meteorological Parameters and the Spread of COVID-19 Cases: Comparison Between Turkey and Italy

Abstract

This study aims to statistically analyze the effects of meteorological parameters on the spread of coronavirus in Turkey and Italy. The multi-factor ANOVA for data analysis was used for the present study. The data of the COVID-19 active cases were handled covering 55 days between March 10, 2020 (the first case incident) and May 3, 2020 for Turkey and covering 69 days between February 25, 2020, and May 3, 2020 for Italy. The parameters of meteorology include average temperature (0C), humidity (%), wind (mph) and pressure (Hg) in this study. The data of meteorological parameters were considered as the average of each factor’s data for the highest populated cities of Turkey and the two most populous cities (Rome and Milan) in Italy. The analysis of variance was significantly analyzed with COVID-19 pandemic (R2= 0.307; F-ratio=5.6581 prob > .0008 with 55 observations for Turkey, and R2= 0.437; F-ratio=3.6581 prob > .0182 with 69 observations for Italy), with the highest level. Among the parameters of the weather, average temperature (°C) has a significant impact on COVID-19 pandemic (t-ratio=3.12; p<0.05) and humidity (%) provisionally affects COVID-19 pandemic (t-ratio=-1.186; p<0.10) for Turkey. In addition, both humidity (%) (t-ratio=-1,38; p<0.0172) and wind (mph) (t-ratio=-2,57; p<0.0125) parameters have been found to play an important role in the COVID-19 outbreak for Italy.

Keywords

COVID-19, Anova, Temperature, Humidity, Wind, Pressure

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