Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Temperatures in the Black Sea Region Using the Innovative Trend Analysis
Abstract
To assess the climatic characteristics of the Black Sea Region, trend analyses were performed with Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) using precipitation and temperature data obtained from the General Directorate of Meteorology (MGM) for 13 provinces (Amasya, Artvin, Bolu, Giresun, Gümüşhane, Kastamonu, Ordu, Rize, Samsun, Sinop, Tokat, Trabzon and Zonguldak). The findings show that there is a general upward trend in both precipitation and temperature. However, the fact that the temperature trend shows a more pronounced increase than precipitation increases the likelihood that the Black Sea Region will face drought risk in the future. Graphical analysis reveals that Rize, Samsun, Sinop, and Trabzon stations show a steady upward trend in precipitation data. Although the graph of Tokat station does not show a clear trend, statistical analysis shows a low increasing trend. On the other hand, temperature trend analyses show a clear and significant increasing trend in all stations, which is clearly demonstrated in the graphs. This finding emphasizes that the temperature increase in the region is widespread and significant. The fact that the precipitation in Tokat station is almost in a constant trend while the temperature is in a significantly increasing trend indicates that important measures should be taken in terms of drought risk. The study provides important outputs for future studies, local administrators and decision-makers.
Keywords
Black Sea Region, Temperature, Trend Analysis, Precipitation, Innovative Trend Analysis
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