Jeopolitik Risklerin Makroekonomik Göstergeler Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

Çalışmanın amacı jeopolitik risklerin Türkiye’deki makroekonomik değişkenler üzerindeki etkisini 1994 Ocak ile 2022 Nisan dönemi için aylık veriler kullanarak incelemektir. Jeopolitik risk göstergesi olarak Caldara ve Iacoviello (2022) tarafından hesaplanan küresel endeks kullanılmıştır. Makroekonomik göstergeler olarak sanayi üretim endeksi, enflasyon oranı ve reel efektif döviz kuru kullanılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler Breitung ve Candelon (2009) tarafından geliştirilen frekans alanında nedensellik testi ile araştırmıştır. Analiz sonuçları, enflasyon oranı ve reel efektif döviz kurunun orta ve uzun dönemde jeopolitik risklerden etkilendiğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Jeopolitik risk
• Enflasyon
• Döviz kuru
• Nedensellik

The Impact of Geopolitics Risks on Macroeconomic Indicators: Evidence from Turkey

Abstract

The study aims to examine the effect of geopolitical risks on macroeconomic variables in Turkey using monthly data for the period from 1994 January to 2022 April. The global index calculated by Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) was used as an indicator of geopolitical risk. The industrial production index, inflation rate and real effective exchange rate were used as macroeconomic indicators. The relationships between the variables were researched with the frequency domain causality test developed by Breitung and Candelon (2009). The results of the analysis show that the inflation rate and the real effective exchange rate are affected by geopolitical risks in the medium and long term.

Keywords

• Geopolitical risk
• Inflation
• Exchange rate
• Causality

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