The Relationship between Economic Complexity and Growth: A Sectoral Approach in Turkey

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between economic complexity and economic growth in Turkey by considering sector-specific dynamics. Focusing on the period from 1995 to 2023, it calculates and analyzes separate economic complexity indices for the industrial and agricultural sectors, along with an overall economic complexity index. The analysis employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) method to estimate both short- and long-term effects. The results indicate that industrial economic complexity significantly and positively contributes to economic growth in both the short and long run. While the overall economic complexity index shows a positive association with long-term growth, the magnitude of its impact remains relatively modest. On the other hand, the agricultural economic complexity index does not exhibit a statistically significant influence on growth. These findings highlight the importance of sectoral disaggregation when examining the structural components of economic performance. From a policy perspective, enhancing production diversity and fostering technological advancement in the industrial sector emerge as key priorities for achieving sustainable economic growth.

Keywords

• Economic Complexity
• Economic Growth
• Sectoral Economic Complexity
• ARDL

Ekonomik Karmaşıklık ve Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye’de Sektörel Bir Yaklaşım

Abstract

Bu çalışma, ekonomik karmaşıklığın Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini sektörel düzeyde analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. 1995–2023 dönemini kapsayan çalışmada, genel ekonomik karmaşıklığın yanı sıra sanayi ve tarım sektörlerine ait ekonomik karmaşıklık endeksleri ayrı ayrı hesaplanarak büyüme üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Ekonometrik analizlerde Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikmeler (ARDL) modeli ile Dinamik En Küçük Kareler (DOLS) yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Analiz bulguları, sanayi sektörüne ilişkin ekonomik karmaşıklığın hem kısa hem de uzun vadede ekonomik büyüme üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı etkiler yarattığını göstermektedir. Genel ekonomik karmaşıklık endeksi uzun vadede büyümeyi destekleyici bir etki sunmakla birlikte, bu etkinin daha sınırlı olduğu belirlenmiştir. Tarım sektörüne ilişkin ekonomik karmaşıklık endeksinin ise ekonomik büyüme üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi tespit edilememiştir. Çalışma, üretim yapısının sektörel niteliğini dikkate alan yaklaşımların büyüme analizlerinde daha bütüncül sonuçlar sunduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Politika yapıcılar açısından, sanayi sektöründe üretim çeşitliliğini ve teknolojik derinliği artırmaya yönelik stratejiler geliştirilmesi, sürdürülebilir büyüme hedefleri açısından kritik bir adım olarak değerlendirilmektedir.

Keywords

• Ekonomik Karmaşıklık
• Sektörel Ekonomik Karmaşıklık
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• ARDL

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