Macroeconomic Determinants of Air Transportation: A VAR Analysis on Turkey

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between air transport and macroeconomic variables for the 1983-2015 period in Turkey, by using the VAR analysis. Three key indicators of air transport were used in the study. These were domestic passengers, international passengers and international cargos. In this study, three different models were created using indicators of air transport, including macroeconomic variables assumed to be related to them. In the first model, the relationship between domestic passenger demand and per capita gross domestic product (GDP), interest rate and consumer price index (CPI) was examined. In the second model, the relationship between international passenger demand and gross domestic product (GDP), interest rate and consumer price index (CPI) was examined. In the third model, the relationship between international cargo demand and gross domestic product (GDP), foreign trade volume, industrial production index and foreign direct investment amount was investigated. The results of the study show that per capita income, gross domestic product and consumer price index variables for domestic and international passenger demand are quite significant. In the case of International cargo demand, gross domestic product and industrial production index variables were observed to be influential.

Keywords

• Air transport,Macroeconomic variables,VAR analysis

Havayolu Taşımacılığının Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri: Türkiye Üzerine Bir VAR Analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de havayolu taşımacılığı ile makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin 1983-2015 dönemi için VAR analizi kullanılarak incelenmesidir. Çalışmada, havayolu taşımacılığına ilişkin üç temel gösterge kullanılmıştır. Bunlar; iç hat yolcu, dış hat yolcu ve dış hat kargo şeklinde sıralanmaktadır. Çalışma kapsamında, havayolu taşımacılığına ait göstergeler kullanılarak, bunlarla ilişkili olduğu varsayılan makroekonomik değişkenlerin dâhil edildiği üç farklı model yaratılmıştır. Birinci modelde iç hat yolcu talebi ile kişi başına gayrisafi yurtiçi hâsıla (GSYH), faiz oranı ve tüketici fiyat endeksi (TÜFE) arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. İkinci modelde dış hat yolcu talebi ile gayrisafi yurtiçi hâsıla (GSYH), faiz oranı ve tüketici fiyat endeksi (TÜFE) arasındaki ilişki ele alınmıştır. Üçüncü modelde ise, dış hat kargo talebi ile gayrisafi yurtiçi hâsıla (GSYH), dış ticaret hacmi, sanayi üretim endeksi ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım tutarı arasındaki ilişki araştırılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonuçları, iç ve dış hat yolcu talebinde kişi başına gelir, gayrisafi yurtiçi hâsıla ve tüketici fiyat endeksi değişkenlerinin önemli ölçüde etkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Dış hat kargo talebinde ise, gayrisafi yurtiçi hâsıla ve sanayi üretim endeksi değişkenlerinin etkili olduğu gözlemlenmektedir.

Keywords

• Havayolu taşımacılığı,Makroekonomik değişkenler,VAR analizi Abstract

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