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Türkiye’de Büyüme ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkileri

Year 2009, Volume: 8 Issue: 1, 177 - 198, 01.06.2009

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, 1987–2007 dönemi için aylık veriler kullanarak Türkiye’de ihracat ile büyüme arasındaki ilişkileri araştırmaktır. Bir diğer ifadeyle, ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezi test edilmektedir. Aylık bazda seriler dolayısıyla gayri safi yurt içi hasıla yerine sanayi üretim endeksi kullanılmaktadır. Birim kök testleri sonucunda aynı dereceden bütünleşik oldukları tespit edilen ihracat, ithalat, dış ticaret hadleri ve sanayi üretim endeksi değişkenleri arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiler Johansen eşbütünleşme analizi çerçevesinde değerlendirilmektedir. Test edilen uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığına bağlı olarak, hata düzeltme modeli (VECM) tahmin edilmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkilerin yönünü belirlemek amacıyla hata düzeltme modeline bağlı Granger nedensellik testleri ve Toda ve Yamamoto (1995) tarafından tanımlanan dönüştürülmüş Wald (MWALD) testleri uygulanmaktadır. Toda ve Yamamoto yöntemine göre, ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezini destekleyecek bir şekilde, ihracattan sanayi üretim endeksine doğru tek yönlü Granger nedensellik olgusu gözlemlenmiştir. Bunun dışında, ihracat ile dış ticaret hadleri arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi elde edilmiştir

References

  • Ahmed, J. ve Harnhirun S. (1996). Cointegration and Causalty between Exports and Economic Growth: Evidence from the ASEAN Countries. Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol.29, Special Issue, pp.413–416.
  • Awokuse, T.O. (2003). Is The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis : Valid For Canada. Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 36, No:1, 126-136
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Mohtadi, H. ve Shabsigh, G. (1991). Exports, Growth and Causalty in LDCs: A Re-examination. Journal of Development Economics, Vol.36, pp. 405–15.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. ve Domaç, İ. (1995). Ex port Growth and Economic Growth in Turkey: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis. METU Studies in Development, 22(1), 67-77
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. ve Niroomand, F. (1999). Openness and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation. Applied Economic Letters, Vol.6, pp.557–61.
  • Balassa, B. (1985). Exports, Policy Choices and Economic Growth in Developing Countries After The 1973 Oil Shock. Journal of Development Economics, 18, pp.23–35
  • Chow, P.C.Y. (1987). Causality Between Export Growth and Industrial Development: Empirical Evidence from the NICs. Journal of Development Economics 26, 55–63.
  • Demirhan, E. ve Akçay, S. (2005). İhracat Artışı ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Seçilmiş MENA Ülkeleri İçin Ampirik Kanıt. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, Mayıs 2005, 124–131
  • Doğanlar, M. ve Fisunoğlu, M. (1999). Causality Between Exports and Economic Growth in Asian Countries. Yapı Kredi Economic Review, Vol. 10, No.11, pp.3-11.
  • Edwards, S. (1993). Openness, Trade Liberalization, and Growth in Developing Countries. Journal of Economic Literature, 31, 1358-96.
  • Enders, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series. John Wiley & Sons Inc.
  • Engle, R.F. ve Granger, C.W.J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Econometrica, 55 (2), 251- 76
  • Feder, G. (1982). On Exports and Economic Growth. Journal of Development Economics, 12, pp. 59–73
  • Ghartey, E. (1993). Causal Relationship between Exports and Economic Growth: Some Empirical Evidence in Taiwan, Japan, and the US. Applied Economics, Vol.25, Num.8, pp.1145-1152.
  • Giles, J. A. ve Williams, C. L. (2000a). Export-Led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Non-Causality Results (Part I). Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 9:3. ss.261-337.
  • Giles, J. A. ve Williams, C. L. (2000b). Export-Led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Non-Causality Results (Part II). Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 9:4. ss.445-470.
  • Grossman, H. (1991). Trade, Innovation and Growth. American Economic Review, Vol.80, pp.86-91.
  • Harris R ve Lau E (1998). Verdoorn’s Law and Increasing Returns to Scale in the UK Regions, 1968-91: Some New Estimates Based on the Cointegration Approach. Oxford Economic Papers 50:201-219.
  • Hatemi-J, A. ve Irandoust, M. (2000). Time-Series Evidence for Balassa’s Export- Led Growth Hypothesis. Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 9(3), ss. 355-365.
  • Henriques, I. ve Sadorsky, P. (1996). Export-Led Growth or Growth-Driven Exports. The Canadian Case. Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol.29, Num.3, pp.540–555.
  • Jin, J,C. (2002). Exports and Growth: is the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Provincial Economies?. Applied Economics, 34, 63-76
  • Johansen, S. ve Juselius K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economic and Statistics, Vol. 52, 169-210.
  • Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and Hythtesis Testing of Cointegrating Vectors in Gauissian Vectors Autoreggessive Models. Econometrica, 59, 1551- 80
  • Jung, W. S.ve Marshall, P. J. (1985). Exports, Growth and Causalty in Developing Countries. Journal of Development Economics, Vol.18, pp.1–12.
  • Kavoussi, R.M. (1984). Export, Expansion and Economic Growth. Journal of Development Economics, Vol.14, Num.2, pp.241-50.
  • Kazgan, G. (1988) Ekonomide Dışa Açık Büyüme, Altın Kitaplar, İstanbul, , s. 20.
  • Kunst, R.M. ve Marin, D. (1989). On Exports and Productivity: a Causal Analysis. Review of Economics and Statistics 71, 699–703.
  • Kwan, A.C.C. ve Kwok, B. (1995). Exogenity and the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: The Case of China. Southern Economic Journal, Vol.61, Num.8, pp.1158–1166.
  • Kwan, A.C.C., Cotsomitis, J.A. ve Kwok, B. (1996). Exports, Economic Growth and Exogenity: Taiwan 1953–88. Applied Economics, Vol.28, Num.3, pp.467–471.
  • Marin, D. (1992). Is the Export-Led Growth Valid for Developed Countries?. Review of Economics and Statistics, 74, pp. 678–688.
  • Moosa, I.A. (1999). Is The Export-led Growth Hypothesis Valid For Australia?”. Applied Economics, Vol.31. pp. 903–906
  • Moschos, D. (1989). Export, Expansion, Growth and the Level of Economic Development: An Empirical Analysis. Journal of Development Economics, Vol.30, pp.93–102.
  • Özbey, F.R., (2000). Türk Sanayileşme Sürecinde Bütünleştirilmiş Strateji. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, Cilt: II Sayı:1 ss.75-93
  • Özmen, E. ve Furtun, G. (1998). Export-Led Growth Hypothesis and the Turkish Data: An Empirical Investication. METU Studies in Development, Vol.25, No.3, pp.491–503.
  • Özmen, A, Özer, M. ve Türkyılmaz, S. (1999). Türkiye’de İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedenselliğe İlişkin Bir Uygulama Denemesi. Orhan Oğuz’a Armağan, Marmara Üniversitesi Yayını, No. 640, pp.379–392.
  • Panas, E. ve Vamvoukas, G. (2002). Further Evidence on the Export – Led Growth Hypothesis. Applied Economics Letters, Vol.9, pp.731-5.
  • Pesaran, H.H. ve Shin, Y. (1998). Generalized Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models. Economics Letters, 58, 17-29
  • Ram, R. (1987). Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence From Time-Series and Cross-Section Data. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 36, 51–72.
  • Riezmann, R., Whiteman, C.H. ve Summers, P.M. (1996). The Engine of Growth or Its Handmaiden? A Time Series Assesment of Export-Led Growth. Emprical Economics,vol.21:77-110
  • Rivera-Batiz, L.A. ve Romer, P.M. (1991). Economic İntegration and Endogenous Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.106, pp.531–555.
  • Saraçoğlu, B. (1997). İhracat Önderliğinde Büyüme Politikası ve Türkiye İhracatında Beklenen Yapısal Değişikliler. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, Ağustos, 32–51
  • Sengupta, J.K. ve Espana, J.R. (1994). Exports and Economic Growth in Asian NICs: An Econometric Analysis for Korea. Applied Economics, Vol.26, pp.41–51.
  • Seyidoğlu, H. (2003). Uluslararası İktisat. Güzem Can Yayınları, İstanbul
  • Shan, J. ve Sun, F. (1998). Export –Led Growth Hypothesis for Australia: An Empirical Re-Investigation. Applied Economics Letters, Vol.5, pp.423-8.
  • Shan, J. ve Tian, G.G. (1998). Causality Between Exports and Economic Growth: The Empirical Evidence From Shanghai. Australian Economic Papers, vol. 37, issue 2, pages 195–202
  • Sharma, S. ve Dhakal, D. (1994). Causal Analysis Between Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries. Applied Economics, Vol.26, Num.9, pp.1145–1157.
  • Stock, H.S. ve Watson, M.W. (2001). Vector Autoregressions. Journal of Economic Perspectives, V.15, N: 4, 101–115
  • Şimşek, M. (2003). İhracata Dayalı-Büyüme Hipotezinin Türkiye Ekonomisi Verileri İle Analizi, 1960–2002. D.E.Ü.İ.İ.B.F.Dergisi Cilt:18 Sayı:2, ss:43–63
  • Toda, H. Y. ve Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes Journal of Econometrics, 66, ss. 225–250.
  • Tuncer, İ. (2002). Türkiye’de İhracat, İthalat Ve Büyüme: Toda-Yamamoto Yöntemiyle Granger Nedensellik Analizleri (1980–2000). Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Cilt: 9, Sayı: 9, pp.90– 106
  • Tyler, W. (1981). Growth and Export Expansion in Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence. Journal of Development Economics, Vol.9, Num.2, pp.121–130.
  • Vernon, R. (1966). Internatıonal Investment And Internatıonal Trade In The Product Cycle. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 80, 290–307
  • Yiğidim, A. ve Köse, N. (1997). İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki, İthalatın Rolü: Türkiye Örneği (1980–1996). Ekonomik Yaklaşım, Cilt.8, Sayı.26, ss.71-85.
  • Young, A. (1991). Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.106, May, pp.369–405.

Causality Relations between Growth and Export in Turkey

Year 2009, Volume: 8 Issue: 1, 177 - 198, 01.06.2009

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relations between export and growth for Turkey by using 1987-2007 monthly data. In other words, export-led growth hypothesis is being tested for the period of eighties and nineties. Industrial production index is used for the proxy of gross domestic product since we use monthly data. For the variables of export, import, terms of trade and industrial production index, first of all ADF unit root tests are carried out. All of the variables are found to be same degree integrated. Thus, long run relations among the variables are examined in the framework of Johansen co-integration analysis. Provided with the long run relation, vector error correction model (VECM) is estimated. Granger causality tests based on VECM and modified Wald tests (MWALD) defined by Toda Yamamoto (1995) are carried out to determine the directions of the relations among the variables. According to the test results, export-led growth is verified for the specified period

References

  • Ahmed, J. ve Harnhirun S. (1996). Cointegration and Causalty between Exports and Economic Growth: Evidence from the ASEAN Countries. Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol.29, Special Issue, pp.413–416.
  • Awokuse, T.O. (2003). Is The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis : Valid For Canada. Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 36, No:1, 126-136
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Mohtadi, H. ve Shabsigh, G. (1991). Exports, Growth and Causalty in LDCs: A Re-examination. Journal of Development Economics, Vol.36, pp. 405–15.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. ve Domaç, İ. (1995). Ex port Growth and Economic Growth in Turkey: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis. METU Studies in Development, 22(1), 67-77
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. ve Niroomand, F. (1999). Openness and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation. Applied Economic Letters, Vol.6, pp.557–61.
  • Balassa, B. (1985). Exports, Policy Choices and Economic Growth in Developing Countries After The 1973 Oil Shock. Journal of Development Economics, 18, pp.23–35
  • Chow, P.C.Y. (1987). Causality Between Export Growth and Industrial Development: Empirical Evidence from the NICs. Journal of Development Economics 26, 55–63.
  • Demirhan, E. ve Akçay, S. (2005). İhracat Artışı ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Seçilmiş MENA Ülkeleri İçin Ampirik Kanıt. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, Mayıs 2005, 124–131
  • Doğanlar, M. ve Fisunoğlu, M. (1999). Causality Between Exports and Economic Growth in Asian Countries. Yapı Kredi Economic Review, Vol. 10, No.11, pp.3-11.
  • Edwards, S. (1993). Openness, Trade Liberalization, and Growth in Developing Countries. Journal of Economic Literature, 31, 1358-96.
  • Enders, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series. John Wiley & Sons Inc.
  • Engle, R.F. ve Granger, C.W.J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing. Econometrica, 55 (2), 251- 76
  • Feder, G. (1982). On Exports and Economic Growth. Journal of Development Economics, 12, pp. 59–73
  • Ghartey, E. (1993). Causal Relationship between Exports and Economic Growth: Some Empirical Evidence in Taiwan, Japan, and the US. Applied Economics, Vol.25, Num.8, pp.1145-1152.
  • Giles, J. A. ve Williams, C. L. (2000a). Export-Led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Non-Causality Results (Part I). Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 9:3. ss.261-337.
  • Giles, J. A. ve Williams, C. L. (2000b). Export-Led Growth: A Survey of the Empirical Literature and Some Non-Causality Results (Part II). Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 9:4. ss.445-470.
  • Grossman, H. (1991). Trade, Innovation and Growth. American Economic Review, Vol.80, pp.86-91.
  • Harris R ve Lau E (1998). Verdoorn’s Law and Increasing Returns to Scale in the UK Regions, 1968-91: Some New Estimates Based on the Cointegration Approach. Oxford Economic Papers 50:201-219.
  • Hatemi-J, A. ve Irandoust, M. (2000). Time-Series Evidence for Balassa’s Export- Led Growth Hypothesis. Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 9(3), ss. 355-365.
  • Henriques, I. ve Sadorsky, P. (1996). Export-Led Growth or Growth-Driven Exports. The Canadian Case. Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol.29, Num.3, pp.540–555.
  • Jin, J,C. (2002). Exports and Growth: is the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Provincial Economies?. Applied Economics, 34, 63-76
  • Johansen, S. ve Juselius K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economic and Statistics, Vol. 52, 169-210.
  • Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and Hythtesis Testing of Cointegrating Vectors in Gauissian Vectors Autoreggessive Models. Econometrica, 59, 1551- 80
  • Jung, W. S.ve Marshall, P. J. (1985). Exports, Growth and Causalty in Developing Countries. Journal of Development Economics, Vol.18, pp.1–12.
  • Kavoussi, R.M. (1984). Export, Expansion and Economic Growth. Journal of Development Economics, Vol.14, Num.2, pp.241-50.
  • Kazgan, G. (1988) Ekonomide Dışa Açık Büyüme, Altın Kitaplar, İstanbul, , s. 20.
  • Kunst, R.M. ve Marin, D. (1989). On Exports and Productivity: a Causal Analysis. Review of Economics and Statistics 71, 699–703.
  • Kwan, A.C.C. ve Kwok, B. (1995). Exogenity and the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: The Case of China. Southern Economic Journal, Vol.61, Num.8, pp.1158–1166.
  • Kwan, A.C.C., Cotsomitis, J.A. ve Kwok, B. (1996). Exports, Economic Growth and Exogenity: Taiwan 1953–88. Applied Economics, Vol.28, Num.3, pp.467–471.
  • Marin, D. (1992). Is the Export-Led Growth Valid for Developed Countries?. Review of Economics and Statistics, 74, pp. 678–688.
  • Moosa, I.A. (1999). Is The Export-led Growth Hypothesis Valid For Australia?”. Applied Economics, Vol.31. pp. 903–906
  • Moschos, D. (1989). Export, Expansion, Growth and the Level of Economic Development: An Empirical Analysis. Journal of Development Economics, Vol.30, pp.93–102.
  • Özbey, F.R., (2000). Türk Sanayileşme Sürecinde Bütünleştirilmiş Strateji. Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, Cilt: II Sayı:1 ss.75-93
  • Özmen, E. ve Furtun, G. (1998). Export-Led Growth Hypothesis and the Turkish Data: An Empirical Investication. METU Studies in Development, Vol.25, No.3, pp.491–503.
  • Özmen, A, Özer, M. ve Türkyılmaz, S. (1999). Türkiye’de İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedenselliğe İlişkin Bir Uygulama Denemesi. Orhan Oğuz’a Armağan, Marmara Üniversitesi Yayını, No. 640, pp.379–392.
  • Panas, E. ve Vamvoukas, G. (2002). Further Evidence on the Export – Led Growth Hypothesis. Applied Economics Letters, Vol.9, pp.731-5.
  • Pesaran, H.H. ve Shin, Y. (1998). Generalized Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models. Economics Letters, 58, 17-29
  • Ram, R. (1987). Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence From Time-Series and Cross-Section Data. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 36, 51–72.
  • Riezmann, R., Whiteman, C.H. ve Summers, P.M. (1996). The Engine of Growth or Its Handmaiden? A Time Series Assesment of Export-Led Growth. Emprical Economics,vol.21:77-110
  • Rivera-Batiz, L.A. ve Romer, P.M. (1991). Economic İntegration and Endogenous Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.106, pp.531–555.
  • Saraçoğlu, B. (1997). İhracat Önderliğinde Büyüme Politikası ve Türkiye İhracatında Beklenen Yapısal Değişikliler. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, Ağustos, 32–51
  • Sengupta, J.K. ve Espana, J.R. (1994). Exports and Economic Growth in Asian NICs: An Econometric Analysis for Korea. Applied Economics, Vol.26, pp.41–51.
  • Seyidoğlu, H. (2003). Uluslararası İktisat. Güzem Can Yayınları, İstanbul
  • Shan, J. ve Sun, F. (1998). Export –Led Growth Hypothesis for Australia: An Empirical Re-Investigation. Applied Economics Letters, Vol.5, pp.423-8.
  • Shan, J. ve Tian, G.G. (1998). Causality Between Exports and Economic Growth: The Empirical Evidence From Shanghai. Australian Economic Papers, vol. 37, issue 2, pages 195–202
  • Sharma, S. ve Dhakal, D. (1994). Causal Analysis Between Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries. Applied Economics, Vol.26, Num.9, pp.1145–1157.
  • Stock, H.S. ve Watson, M.W. (2001). Vector Autoregressions. Journal of Economic Perspectives, V.15, N: 4, 101–115
  • Şimşek, M. (2003). İhracata Dayalı-Büyüme Hipotezinin Türkiye Ekonomisi Verileri İle Analizi, 1960–2002. D.E.Ü.İ.İ.B.F.Dergisi Cilt:18 Sayı:2, ss:43–63
  • Toda, H. Y. ve Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes Journal of Econometrics, 66, ss. 225–250.
  • Tuncer, İ. (2002). Türkiye’de İhracat, İthalat Ve Büyüme: Toda-Yamamoto Yöntemiyle Granger Nedensellik Analizleri (1980–2000). Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Cilt: 9, Sayı: 9, pp.90– 106
  • Tyler, W. (1981). Growth and Export Expansion in Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence. Journal of Development Economics, Vol.9, Num.2, pp.121–130.
  • Vernon, R. (1966). Internatıonal Investment And Internatıonal Trade In The Product Cycle. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 80, 290–307
  • Yiğidim, A. ve Köse, N. (1997). İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki, İthalatın Rolü: Türkiye Örneği (1980–1996). Ekonomik Yaklaşım, Cilt.8, Sayı.26, ss.71-85.
  • Young, A. (1991). Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.106, May, pp.369–405.
There are 54 citations in total.

Details

Other ID JA32RA35US
Journal Section Article
Authors

Cevat Bilgin

Ahmet Şahbaz This is me

Publication Date June 1, 2009
Submission Date June 1, 2009
Published in Issue Year 2009 Volume: 8 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Bilgin, C., & Şahbaz, A. (2009). Causality Relations between Growth and Export in Turkey. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 8(1), 177-198.