Macroeconomic Determinants of Air Transportation: A VAR Analysis on Turkey

Year 2018, Volume: 17 Issue: 4, 1536 - 1557, 27.09.2018

Kasım Kiracı , Ünal Battal

https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.391041

Cited By: 2

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship
between air transport and macroeconomic variables for the 1983-2015 period in
Turkey, by using the VAR analysis. Three key indicators of air transport were
used in the study. These were domestic passengers, international passengers and
international cargos. In this study, three different models were created using
indicators of air transport, including macroeconomic variables assumed to be
related to them. In the first model, the relationship between domestic
passenger demand and per capita gross domestic product (GDP), interest rate and
consumer price index (CPI) was examined. In the second model, the relationship
between international passenger demand and gross domestic product (GDP),
interest rate and consumer price index (CPI) was examined. In the third model,
the relationship between international cargo demand and gross domestic product
(GDP), foreign trade volume, industrial production index and foreign direct
investment amount was investigated. The results of the study show that per
capita income, gross domestic product and consumer price index variables for
domestic and international passenger demand are quite significant. In the case
of International cargo demand, gross domestic product and industrial production
index variables were observed to be influential.

Keywords

Air transport, Macroeconomic variables, VAR analysis

Havayolu Taşımacılığının Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri: Türkiye Üzerine Bir VAR Analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de havayolu taşımacılığı ile
makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin 1983-2015 dönemi için VAR
analizi kullanılarak incelenmesidir. Çalışmada, havayolu taşımacılığına ilişkin
üç temel gösterge kullanılmıştır. Bunlar; iç hat yolcu, dış hat yolcu ve dış
hat kargo şeklinde sıralanmaktadır. Çalışma kapsamında, havayolu taşımacılığına
ait göstergeler kullanılarak, bunlarla ilişkili olduğu varsayılan makroekonomik
değişkenlerin dâhil edildiği üç farklı model yaratılmıştır. Birinci modelde iç
hat yolcu talebi ile kişi başına gayrisafi yurtiçi hâsıla (GSYH), faiz oranı ve
tüketici fiyat endeksi (TÜFE) arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. İkinci modelde
dış hat yolcu talebi ile gayrisafi yurtiçi hâsıla (GSYH), faiz oranı ve
tüketici fiyat endeksi (TÜFE) arasındaki ilişki ele alınmıştır. Üçüncü modelde
ise, dış hat kargo talebi ile gayrisafi yurtiçi hâsıla (GSYH), dış ticaret
hacmi, sanayi üretim endeksi ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım tutarı arasındaki
ilişki araştırılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonuçları, iç ve dış hat yolcu talebinde
kişi başına gelir, gayrisafi yurtiçi hâsıla ve tüketici fiyat endeksi
değişkenlerinin önemli ölçüde etkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Dış hat kargo
talebinde ise, gayrisafi yurtiçi hâsıla ve sanayi üretim endeksi
değişkenlerinin etkili olduğu gözlemlenmektedir.

Keywords

Havayolu taşımacılığı, Makroekonomik değişkenler, VAR analizi Abstract

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