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TÜRK HANEHALKI TASARRUF DAVRANIŞLARININ SENTETİK PANEL VERİ İLE TAHMİN EDİLMESİ

Year 2022, Volume: 21 Issue: 2, 645 - 674, 30.04.2022

Merve Güngör Parlakyiğit , Ömer Özçiçek

https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.1004454

Abstract

Bu çalışmada 2002-2013 dönemi TÜİK Hanehalkı Bütçe Araştırması (HBA) mikro verileri kullanılarak Türk hanehalkının tüketim ve tasarruf davranışı modeli analiz edilmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı Türk hanehalkının gelir dinamiğini, tüketim ve tasarruf davranışlarını anlamaya katkıda bulunmak ve Türkiye ekonomisinde Yaşam Döngüsü Hipotezi ve İhtiyati Tasarruf Hipotezi’nin geçerliliğini sınamaktır. Çalışmada ekonometrik yöntem olarak Deaton (1985) u takiben sentetik panel veri/kohort teknikleri kullanılmış ve ayrıca tüketim için iki aşamalı Sistem-GMM tekniği ile log doğrusallaştırılmış Euler denklemi tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen tüm ampirik bulgular tüketimin gelire aşırı duyarlı olduğunu gösterirken, bu durum Türkiye için Yaşam Döngüsü Hipotezi’nin geçerliliğine yönelik bir kanıt elde edilemediğini göstermektedir. Son olarak Türkiye için log doğrusallaştırılmış Euler denklemi ile İhtiyati Tasarruf Hipotezi’nin geçerliliği test edildiğinde, sonuçlar (gelecek dönem işgücü belirsizliği gibi) belirsizlik oluştuğunda hanehalkının yaşam boyu tüketimlerini sabit tutmak için cari tüketimlerini erteleyeceklerini ve tasarruf düzeylerini artırabileceklerini göstermektedir. Bu nedenle ampirik analiz sonuçları 2002- 2013 dönemi TÜİK HBA verileri dikkate alındığında Türkiye için İhtiyati Tasarruf Hipotezi’nin geçerliliğini destekler niteliktedir.

Keywords

Sentetik Panel Veri Kohort Teknikleri Yaşam Döngüsü Hipotezi İhtiyati Tasarruf Hipotezi

References

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  • Attanasio, O.P. (1994). The intertemporal allocation of consumption: theory and evidence. NBER Working Papers, 4811, 1-34.
  • Attanasio, O.P., Banks,J., Meghir, C. ve Weber, G. (1995). Humps and bumps in lifetime consumption. NBER Working Papers, 5350, 1-25.
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  • Attanasio, O.P. ve Szekely, M. (1998). Household savings and income distribution in Mexico. Inter-American Development Bank Working Paper, 390, 1-55.
  • Attanasio, O.P. ve Szekely, M. (2000). Household saving in developing countries inequality, demographics and all that: How different are Latin America and South East Asia? Inter-American Development Bank Working Paper, 427, 1-61.
  • Attanasio, O.P. ve Weber, G. (1995). Is consumption growth consistent with intertemporal optimization? evidence from the consumer expenditure survey. Journal of Political Economy,103(6), 1121-1157. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/601443
  • Attanasio, O.P. ve Weber, G. (2010). Consumption and saving: models of intertemporal allocation and their implications for public policy. Journal of Economic Literature, 48, 693–751. DOI: 10.1257/jel.48.3.693
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  • Banks, J., Blundell, R. ve Brugiavini, A. (2001). Risk pooling, precautionary saving and consumption growth. The Review of Economic Studies, 68(4), 757-779. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-937X.00189
  • Bernheim, B.D., Skinner, J. ve Weinberg, S. (2001). What accounts for the variation in retirement wealth among U.S. households? The American Economic Review, 91(4), 832-857. DOI: 10.1257/aer.91.4.832
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TÜRK HANEHALKININ TASARRUF DAVRANIŞLARININ SENTETİK PANEL VERİ İLE TAHMİN EDİLMESİ

Year 2022, Volume: 21 Issue: 2, 645 - 674, 30.04.2022

Merve Güngör Parlakyiğit , Ömer Özçiçek

https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.1004454

Abstract

Bu çalışmada 2002-2013 dönemi TÜİK Hanehalkı Bütçe Araştırması (HBA) mikro verileri kullanılarak Türk hanehalkının tüketim ve tasarruf davranışı modeli analiz edilmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı Türk hanehalkının gelir dinamiğini, tüketim ve tasarruf davranışlarını anlamaya katkıda bulunmak ve Türkiye ekonomisinde Yaşam Döngüsü Hipotezi ve İhtiyati Tasarruf Hipotezi’nin geçerliliğini sınamaktır. Çalışmada ekonometrik yöntem olarak Deaton (1985) u takiben sentetik panel veri/kohort teknikleri kullanılmış ve ayrıca tüketim için iki aşamalı Sistem-GMM tekniği ile log doğrusallaştırılmış Euler denklemi tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen tüm ampirik bulgular tüketimin gelire aşırı duyarlı olduğunu gösterirken, bu durum Türkiye için Yaşam Döngüsü Hipotezi’nin geçerliliğine yönelik bir kanıt elde edilemediğini göstermektedir. Son olarak Türkiye için log doğrusallaştırılmış Euler denklemi ile İhtiyati Tasarruf Hipotezi’nin geçerliliği test edildiğinde, sonuçlar (gelecek dönem işgücü belirsizliği gibi) belirsizlik oluştuğunda hanehalkının yaşam boyu tüketimlerini sabit tutmak için cari tüketimlerini erteleyeceklerini ve tasarruf düzeylerini artırabileceklerini göstermektedir. Bu nedenle ampirik analiz sonuçları 2002- 2013 dönemi TÜİK HBA verileri dikkate alındığında Türkiye için İhtiyati Tasarruf Hipotezi’nin geçerliliğini destekler niteliktedir.

Keywords

Sentetik Panel Veri Kohort Teknikleri Yaşam Döngüsü Hipotezi İhtiyati Tasarruf Hipotezi

References

  • Aktaş, A., Güner, D., Gürsel, S. ve Uysal, G. (2012). Structural determinants of household savings in Turkey: 2003-2008. Bahçeşehir University Center for Economic and Social Research BETAM Working Paper Series, 007, 1-51.
  • Arellano, M. (2003). Panel data econometrics. Oxford. University Press.(20.07.2017). https://books.google.com.tr/books?id=LoDnCwAAQBAJ&dq=Hsiao,+(2003),+Analysis+of+Panel+Data,+2nd+edition,+Cambridge+University+Press,+Ch.+6.2,+6.7+and+6.8&lr=&hl=tr&source=gbs_navlinks_s
  • Attanasio, O.P. (1993). A cohort analysis of saving behavior by U.S. households. NBER Working Papers, 4454, 1-31.
  • Attanasio, O.P. (1994). The intertemporal allocation of consumption: theory and evidence. NBER Working Papers, 4811, 1-34.
  • Attanasio, O.P., Banks,J., Meghir, C. ve Weber, G. (1995). Humps and bumps in lifetime consumption. NBER Working Papers, 5350, 1-25.
  • Attanasio, O.P. ve Browning, M. (1993). Consumption over the life cycle and over the business cycle. NBER Working Papers, 4453, 1-25.
  • Attanasio, O.P. ve Szekely, M. (1998). Household savings and income distribution in Mexico. Inter-American Development Bank Working Paper, 390, 1-55.
  • Attanasio, O.P. ve Szekely, M. (2000). Household saving in developing countries inequality, demographics and all that: How different are Latin America and South East Asia? Inter-American Development Bank Working Paper, 427, 1-61.
  • Attanasio, O.P. ve Weber, G. (1995). Is consumption growth consistent with intertemporal optimization? evidence from the consumer expenditure survey. Journal of Political Economy,103(6), 1121-1157. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/601443
  • Attanasio, O.P. ve Weber, G. (2010). Consumption and saving: models of intertemporal allocation and their implications for public policy. Journal of Economic Literature, 48, 693–751. DOI: 10.1257/jel.48.3.693
  • Baltagi, B.H. (2008). Econometric analysis of panel data. John Wiley&Sons Ltd. United Kingdom. pp.147-179.
  • Banks, J., Blundell, R. ve Brugiavini, A. (2001). Risk pooling, precautionary saving and consumption growth. The Review of Economic Studies, 68(4), 757-779. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-937X.00189
  • Bernheim, B.D., Skinner, J. ve Weinberg, S. (2001). What accounts for the variation in retirement wealth among U.S. households? The American Economic Review, 91(4), 832-857. DOI: 10.1257/aer.91.4.832
  • Beyaz Sipahi, B. (2021). Hanehalkı tasarruf oranının ekonomik ve demografik belirleyicileri: GMM yaklaşımı. Journal of Yasar University, 16(61), 248-263. DOI: https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.809671
  • Blundell, R., Browning, M. ve Meghir, C. (1994). Consumer demand and the life cycle allocation of household expenditure. Review of Economic Studies, 61(1), 57-80. DOI:10.2307/2297877
  • Bozkuş, S. ve Üçdoğruk, Ş. (2007). Hanehalkı tasarruf tercihleri: Türkiye örneği. 8. Ekonometri ve İstatistik Kongresi, 24-25 Mayıs, Malatya, Türkiye.
  • Browning, M., Deaton. A ve Irish, M. (1985). A profitable approach to labor supply and commodity demand over the life-cycle. Econometrica, 53(3), 503-544.
  • Browning, M. ve Lusardi, A. (1996). Household saving: micro theories and micro facts. Journal of Economic Literature,34(4), 1797-1855.
  • Browning, M. ve Ejrnaes, M. (2009). Consumption and children. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 91(1), 93-111. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.91.1.93
  • Carroll, C.D. (1994). How does future income affect current consumption? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(1), 111–147. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2118430
  • Carroll, C.D. (1996). Buffer stock theory of saving and the Life Cycle/ Permanent Income Hypothesis. NBER Working Paper, 5788, 1-49.
  • Carroll, C. D. (2001). A theory of the consumption function, with and without liquidity constraints. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15(3), 23–45. DOI: 10.1257/jep.15.3.23
  • Carroll, C.D., Dynan, K.E. ve Krane, S.D. (2003). Unemployment risk and precautionary wealth: evidence from households balance sheets. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(3), 586-604.
  • Carroll, C.D., Hall, R.E. ve Zeldes, S.P. (1992). The buffer-stock theory of saving: some macroeconomic evidence. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 23(2), 61-156.
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There are 89 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Economics
Authors

Merve Güngör Parlakyiğit 0000-0002-6546-3415

Ömer Özçiçek 0000-0001-5617-2360

Publication Date April 30, 2022
Submission Date October 7, 2021
Acceptance Date December 8, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 21 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Güngör Parlakyiğit, M., & Özçiçek, Ö. (2022). TÜRK HANEHALKI TASARRUF DAVRANIŞLARININ SENTETİK PANEL VERİ İLE TAHMİN EDİLMESİ. Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 21(2), 645-674. https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.1004454